The Future Of Life

Tobias Baumann joins the podcast to discuss suffering risks, artificial sentience, and the problem of knowing which actions reduce suffering in the long-term future. You can read more about Tobias' work here: https://centerforreducingsuffering.org. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:52 What are suffering risks? 05:40 Artificial sentience 17:18 Is reducing suffering hopelessly difficult? 26:06 Can we know how to reduce suffering? 31:17 Why are suffering risks neglected? 37:31 How do we avoid accidentally increasing suffering? Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

Neel Nanda joins the podcast for a lightning round on mathematics, technological progress, aging, living up to our values, and generative AI. You can find his blog here: https://www.neelnanda.io Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:55 How useful is advanced mathematics? 02:24 Will AI replace mathematicians? 03:28 What are the key drivers of tech progress? 04:13 What scientific discovery would disrupt Neel's worldview? 05:59 How should humanity view aging? 08:03 How can we live up to our values? 10:56 What can we learn from a person who lived 1.000 years ago? 12:05 What should we do after we have aligned AGI? 16:19 What important concept is often misunderstood? 17:22 What is the most impressive scientific discovery? 18:08 Are language models better learning tools that textbooks? 21:22 Should settling Mars be a priority for humanity? 22:44 How can we focus on our work? 24:04 Are human-AI relationships morally okay? 25:18 Are there aliens in the universe? 26:02 What are Neel's favourite books? 27

Neel Nanda joins the podcast to talk about mechanistic interpretability and how it can make AI safer. Neel is an independent AI safety researcher. You can find his blog here: https://www.neelnanda.io Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:46 How early is the field mechanistic interpretability? 03:12 Why should we care about mechanistic interpretability? 06:38 What are some successes in mechanistic interpretability? 16:29 How promising is mechanistic interpretability? 31:13 Is machine learning analogous to evolution? 32:58 How does mechanistic interpretability make AI safer? 36:54 36:54 Does mechanistic interpretability help us control AI? 39:57 Will AI models resist interpretation? 43:43 Is mechanistic interpretability fast enough? 54:10 Does mechanistic interpretability give us a general understanding? 57:44 How can you help with mechanistic interpretability? Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/fut

Neel Nanda joins the podcast to explain how we can understand neural networks using mechanistic interpretability. Neel is an independent AI safety researcher. You can find his blog here: https://www.neelnanda.io Timestamps: 00:00 Who is Neel? 04:41 How did Neel choose to work on AI safety? 12:57 What does an AI safety researcher do? 15:53 How analogous are digital neural networks to brains? 21:34 Are neural networks like alien beings? 29:13 Can humans think like AIs? 35:00 Can AIs help us discover new physics? 39:56 How advanced is the field of AI safety? 45:56 How did Neel form independent opinions on AI? 48:20 How does AI safety research decrease the risk of extinction? Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

Connor Leahy from Conjecture joins the podcast for a lightning round on a variety of topics ranging from aliens to education. Learn more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

Connor Leahy from Conjecture joins the podcast to discuss AI safety, the fragility of the world, slowing down AI development, regulating AI, and the optimal funding model for AI safety research. Learn more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:47 What is the best way to understand AI safety? 09:50 Why is the world relatively stable? 15:18 Is the main worry human misuse of AI? 22:47 Can humanity solve AI safety? 30:06 Can we slow down AI development? 37:13 How should governments regulate AI? 41:09 How do we avoid misallocating AI safety government grants? 51:02 Should AI safety research be done by for-profit companies? Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

Connor Leahy from Conjecture joins the podcast to discuss AI progress, chimps, memes, and markets. Learn more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Defining artificial general intelligence 04:52 What makes humans more powerful than chimps? 17:23 Would AIs have to be social to be intelligent? 20:29 Importing humanity's memes into AIs 23:07 How do we measure progress in AI? 42:39 Gut feelings about AI progress 47:29 Connor's predictions about AGI 52:44 Is predicting AGI soon betting against the market? 57:43 How accurate are prediction markets about AGI?

On this special episode of the podcast, Emilia Javorsky interviews Sean Ekins about regulating AI drug discovery. Timestramps: 00:00 Introduction 00:31 Ethical guidelines and regulation of AI drug discovery 06:11 How do we balance innovation and safety in AI drug discovery? 13:12 Keeping dangerous chemical data safe 21:16 Sean’s personal story of voicing concerns about AI drug discovery 32:06 How Sean will continue working on AI drug discovery

On this special episode of the podcast, Emilia Javorsky interviews Sean Ekins about the dangers of AI drug discovery. They talk about how Sean discovered an extremely toxic chemical (VX) by reversing an AI drug discovery algorithm. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Sean’s professional journey 03:45 Can computational models replace animal models? 07:24 The risks of AI drug discovery 12:48 Should scientists disclose dangerous discoveries? 19:40 How should scientists handle dual-use technologies? 22:08 Should we open-source potentially dangerous discoveries? 26:20 How do we control autonomous drug creation? 31:36 Surprising chemical discoveries made by black-box AI systems 36:56 How could the dangers of AI drug discovery be mitigated?

Anders Sandberg joins the podcast to discuss various philosophical questions about the value of the future. Learn more about Anders' work: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 Humanity as an immature teenager 04:24 How should we respond to our values changing over time? 18:53 How quickly should we change our values? 24:58 Are there limits to what future morality could become? 29:45 Could the universe contain infinite value? 36:00 How do we balance weird philosophy with common sense? 41:36 Lightning round: mind uploading, aliens, interstellar travel, cryonics

Anders Sandberg joins the podcast to discuss how big the future could be and what humanity could achieve at the limits of physics. Learn more about Anders' work: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:58 Does it make sense to write long books now? 06:53 Is it possible to understand all of science now? 10:44 What is exploratory engineering? 15:48 Will humanity develop a completed science? 21:18 How much of possible technology has humanity already invented? 25:22 Which sciences have made the most progress? 29:11 How materially wealthy could humanity become? 39:34 Does a grand futures depend on space travel? 49:16 Trade between proponents of different moral theories 53:13 How does physics limit our ethical options? 55:24 How much could our understanding of physics change? 1:02:30 The next episode

Anders Sandberg from The Future of Humanity Institute joins the podcast to discuss ChatGPT, large language models, and what he's learned about the risks and benefits of AI. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:40 ChatGPT 06:33 Will AI continue to surprise us? 16:22 How do language models fail? 24:23 Language models trained on their own output 27:29 Can language models write college-level essays? 35:03 Do language models understand anything? 39:59 How will AI models improve in the future? 43:26 AI safety in light of recent AI progress 51:28 AIs should be uncertain about values

Vincent Boulanin joins the podcast to explain how modern militaries use AI, including in nuclear weapons systems. Learn more about Vincent's work: https://sipri.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:45 Categorizing risks from AI and nuclear 07:40 AI being used by non-state actors 12:57 Combining AI with nuclear technology 15:13 A human should remain in the loop 25:05 Automation bias 29:58 Information requirements for nuclear launch decisions 35:22 Vincent's general conclusion about military machine learning 37:22 Specific policy measures for decreasing nuclear risk Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

Vincent Boulanin joins the podcast to explain the dangers of incorporating artificial intelligence in nuclear weapons systems. Learn more about Vincent's work: https://sipri.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:55 What is strategic stability? 02:45 How can AI be a positive factor in nuclear risk? 10:17 Remote sensing of nuclear submarines 19:50 Using AI in nuclear command and control 24:21 How does AI change the game theory of nuclear war? 30:49 How could AI cause an accidental nuclear escalation? 36:57 How could AI cause an inadvertent nuclear escalation? 43:08 What is the most important problem in AI nuclear risk? 44:39 The next episode

Robin Hanson joins the podcast to discuss AI forecasting methods and metrics. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:49 Robin's experience working with AI 06:04 Robin's views on AI development 10:41 Should we care about metrics for AI progress? 16:56 Is it useful to track AI progress? 22:02 When should we begin worrying about AI safety? 29:16 The history of AI development 39:52 AI progress that deviates from current trends 43:34 Is this AI boom different than past booms? 48:26 Different metrics for predicting AI

Robin Hanson joins the podcast to explain his theory of grabby aliens and its implications for the future of humanity. Learn more about the theory here: https://grabbyaliens.com Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:49 Why should we care about aliens? 05:58 Loud alien civilizations and quiet alien civilizations 08:16 Why would some alien civilizations be quiet? 14:50 The moving parts of the grabby aliens model 23:57 Why is humanity early in the universe? 28:46 Could't we just be alone in the universe? 33:15 When will humanity expand into space? 46:05 Will humanity be more advanced than the aliens we meet? 49:32 What if we discovered aliens tomorrow? 53:44 Should the way we think about aliens change our actions? 57:48 Can we reasonably theorize about aliens? 53:39 The next episode

Ajeya Cotra joins us to talk about thinking clearly in a rapidly changing world. Learn more about the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:44 The default versus the accelerating picture of the future 04:25 The role of AI in accelerating change 06:48 Extrapolating economic growth 08:53 How do we know whether the pace of change is accelerating? 15:07 How can we cope with a rapidly changing world? 18:50 How could the future be utopian? 22:03 Is accelerating technological progress immoral? 25:43 Should we imagine concrete future scenarios? 31:15 How should we act in an accelerating world? 34:41 How Ajeya could be wrong about the future 41:41 What if change accelerates very rapidly?

Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss how artificial intelligence could cause catastrophe. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 AI safety research in general 02:04 Realistic scenarios for AI catastrophes 06:51 A dangerous AI model developed in the near future 09:10 Assumptions behind dangerous AI development 14:45 Can AIs learn long-term planning? 18:09 Can AIs understand human psychology? 22:32 Training an AI model with naive safety features 24:06 Can AIs be deceptive? 31:07 What happens after deploying an unsafe AI system? 44:03 What can we do to prevent an AI catastrophe? 53:58 The next episode

Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02:09 Forecasting transformative AI 02:53 Historical growth rates 05:10 Simpler forecasting methods 09:01 Biological anchors 16:31 Different paths to transformative AI 17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI? 25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI 30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough? 33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation? 38:15 Will AI be limited by training data? 41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn? 47:22 The next episode

Alan Robock joins us to discuss nuclear winter, famine and geoengineering. Learn more about Alan's work: http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/ Follow Alan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlanRobock Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:45 What is nuclear winter? 06:27 A nuclear war between India and Pakistan 09:16 Targets in a nuclear war 11:08 Why does the world have so many nuclear weapons? 19:28 Societal collapse in a nuclear winter 22:45 Should we prepare for a nuclear winter? 28:13 Skepticism about nuclear winter 35:16 Unanswered questions about nuclear winter