Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm.  Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%.   BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%.  ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important.   He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Flood-affected Wellington and Wairarapa are continuing to be hit by yet more heavy rain.  A Red Rain Warning is in effect until 6pm, with many schools and facilities closed, and people in low-lying areas being advised to leave their homes.  A search for missing Karori man Philip Sutton has been suspended overnight due to dangerous conditions.  Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy Jonathan Boston told Ryan Bridge he's concerned about the growing number of people who are uninsured or can't get insurance.  He says becoming less resilient as a society, because more people can't insure their properties, that will be damaging to everyone.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 21st of April 2025, inflation’s expected to ease or hold steady for the first three months of the year, ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith tells Ryan what this when we'll start to see the full impacts of the oil shock. Erica Stanford’s rolling out help for rural schools hit by fuel costs, Kaitaia Primary School Principal, tells Ryan how big of an impact it will have for schools.  Insurers are feeling the raft of major weather events, Victoria University Emeritus Professor of Public Policy shares his thoughts.  Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on the Australian treasurer’s dire warning of the economic impact of the Iran War.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Northland principal says the Government's latest relief package for teachers struggling with the cost of fuel will help secure more educators for rural areas.  Relief Teacher Transport Allowance mileage rates are being doubled, and up to 70 schools will get a one-off grant to replace diesel boilers. Rural schools with fewer than a hundred students will also get a one-off payment to help pay for the extra reimbursements. Kaitaia Primary School Principal Brendon Morrissey told Ryan Bridge he hopes the packages will lead more teachers to consider working outside major cities.  He says it will also encourage more training teachers to go to rural areas, which will help small schools struggling with staffing.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Take away migrants from our economy and the thing pretty much falls apart.  This is not Europe, where they're overrun with migrant boats and expensive hotel bills to house the passengers.  This is not the US, where illegal migrants poured across a porous border. This is New Zealand, separated from the rest of the world by the Pacific Ocean and rather fussy about who comes here and why.  If you look at the numbers, they tell you we're doing a good job on migration. Kiwi migrants are, according to a New Zealand Initiative report: Less likely to claim a benefit More likely to be employed Their children have better education outcomes than native born New Zealanders The idea they steal jobs from Kiwis doesn't stack up because an economy doesn't have a cap on the number of jobs available. Job growth happens when demand increases and migration = increased demand. Plus they're more likely to take intuitive and start businesses which employ people.  Migrants also tend to be younger, so contribute

Talks are set to resume this week in Pakistan, but currently it's unconfirmed whether Iran will be in attendance. Previous talks have been unsuccessful, and over the weekend the Strait of Hormuz was opened and then reclosed by Iran after the US continued to block Iranian ports.  This instability has raised questions over the ever-increasing fuel prices.  Business correspondent Vicky Pryce told Ryan Bridge, "everything could of course unsettle the markets again, but right this minute the markets seem to think that some resolution will be found." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the Green Party's annual State of the Planet Address they have called for a National Electrification Plan.  The plan would focus on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and using renewable energy like solar panels to benefit the planet and people's wallets.  NZGBC director of market transformation Sam Archer explained why this help is needed, and how they plan on clearing the grid for extra solar panel use.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iran's vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US's blockade is lifted. Iranian gunboats reportedly fired at ships trying to pass through yesterday - which US President Donald Trump's called a total violation of the ceasefire agreement. It comes as Iran's reportedly rejected a fresh round of peace talks set for tomorrow - labelling the US's demands as 'excessive'. Former US Ambassador in the Middle East David Satterfield shares his thoughts with Ryan Bridge. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Monday 19th of April 2025, the strait of Hormuz is shut again, Trump says his team led by JD Vance is heading back to Pakistan for more talks, Former US Ambassador in the Middle East David Satterfield tells Ryan when we can expect the war to end.  The Green's are taking a mass national electrification plan to the next election, NZGBC Director of market transformation, Sam Archer shares his thoughts on if the plan is viable or not.  Chief Economic Advisor at the UK centre for Economics and Business Research and Former UK Government Advisor, Vicky Pryce has the latest on oil prices coming down again due to likelihood of new talks between Iran and the US, the IMF growth scenarios. Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on one of London’s most famous parks re-opens as police continue investigating whether items found near the Israeli embassy are connected to a video posted on social media claiming the building was going to be targe

It's too early to tell whether National should switch leaders.  We've had one poll last night with the left-bloc winning.  If that case were to eventuate, it probably wouldn't eventuate in the way it's being reported.  New Zealand First would step in to rescue Labour from Te Pati Māori and soften the power of the Greens. If there wasn't enough support on the right to form a government, you can't tell me Winston wouldn't do a deal with his devil to keep the left honest.  Back to Luxon and the leadership.  He's had a bad poll. But there have been plenty of late with the right keeping the Treasury benches.  That's why most of his cabinet keeps his support. That and the fact nobody else at the round table seems confident enough they'd actually do a better job and improve those numbers.  Until it's clear not just in one poll, but a trend of polls, that these guys wouldn't be part of a cabinet because they wouldn't have the numbers to form one in the first place, then the leadersh

There's worry the new Warrant of Fitness regime will mean more dangerous vehicles on the road.   Vehicles of almost every age will get their warrants extended, with 14-year-old cars only needing a WOF every two years, rather than annually.   The Motor Trade Association say one in three cars between eight and 10-years-old currently fail.   Head of Advocacy James McDowall says it may not even end up saving people money if they rack up more damage and need costly repairs.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Increasing reports of horrendous abuse directed towards staff at emergency departments.  Figures released under the Official Information Act show more than 7,500 reports were logged last year, matching the year before, but up significantly on 2023.  Just over 1000 reports came from emergency departments.  Nurses Society Director David Wills told Ryan Bridge the assaults vary in severity but are all distressing for staff.  He says it's everything from verbal abuse to spitting, biting, pushing, and occasionally sexual assault.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Friday 17 April. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A lift in beneficiaries could suggest recent policy decisions are taking us in the wrong direction.  At the end of March, just over 409 thousand people were on a main benefit, almost 3% more than the year prior. Jobseeker numbers are up 2.6%. Auckland University Associate Economics Professor Susan St John told Ryan Bridge many of the ways we've tried to bring down spending have impacted the labour market. She says until we can recognise we're in a deep recession it's going to get worse, and we need the Government to step up, otherwise we're stuffed.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a bit of hand-wringing this week about the fuel situation and some of it is justified.  If you're running an airline, it's bad. If you're paying $4 bucks to fill a truck with diesel, also bad.  But we're not yet out of fuel, or even close to out of fuel. Which is not the same as saying we won't one day be out of fuel, or having to ration before we get there, that is still a possibility. This week we've had some economists and pundits come out and hit the panic button.  Oil will start to flow from elsewhere. Europe has already replaced half its lost jet fuel stockpile from Nigeria and America.  But these things take time, and as we've spoken about on this show many times, that ultimately means cost.  Two things became clear this week: Carney in Canada and Albanese are both onboard with oil, more domestic production. They're looking at proposals in Queensland and Carney's promising to build roads to oil wells in Canada.  Climate has taken a backseat. Needs must. 

A significant milestone for New Zealand apple brand Envy – the first to surpass a billion dollars in global sales.   The Royal Gala and Braeburn mix was first bred in 1985, and is now grown in more than 13 countries and sold in 55 markets around the world.   T&G Managing Director Shane Kingston told Ryan Bridge it won't be long until sales hit the two billion mark.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tax expert believes new Inland Revenue recommendations fly in the face of long term fiscal forecasts.  The report lays out a range of suggestions, including a capital gains tax and increasing the Goods and Services tax from 15%.   It warns this would disproportionately affect those less fortunate, so should be paired with cash transfers to poorer workers.   Independent tax expert Geof Nightingale told Ryan Bridge the aim is to ease the Government's deficit.  He says you can borrow, which isn't sustainable long term, or you can cut expenditure and raise taxes.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 16th of April 2025, Pharmacists are being given more powers to help take the pressure off GPs, Director of Mangawhai Pharmacy Lanny Wong tells Ryan how big of a difference this will make.  The Envy apple has cracked $1 billion in global sales, a first for a New Zealand apple brand, T&G Managing Director tells Ryan Bridge how the brand became so successful.  Inland Revenue is floating higher GST and a Capital Gains Tax, Independent tax expert Geof Nightingale shares his thoughts.  Plus, US Correspondent Mitch McCann has the latest on Trump saying to watch out for an "amazing two days" as diplomats work to arrange a second round of peace talks and Trump renewing his threat to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pharmacists appear ready for an increased workload under a proposed expansion of services. The Government's considering letting pharmacists prescribe funded medicines for common conditions like scabies and head lice, as well as for UTIs and the emergency contraceptive pill. Until now, people have needed a GP prescription or had to pay the medication's full pharmacy price. Mangawhai Pharmacy Director Lanny Wong told Ryan Bridge pharmacists treat these conditions already, people just have to pay. She says it's nothing new but demand will likely increase. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A special good morning to all the redheads listening.  There's some new Harvard research that's come out about human evolution and it mentions you. I'll get to you in a sec. Conventional wisdom says that homo sapiens (us) basically stopped evolving when we emerged 300,000 years ago. We reached peak human. It took us about seven million years to evolve from looking more like Apes. It took us four million years to walk on two legs, which is one of things that makes humans. More recently we learnt how to use tools, language.  But once we stopped hunter-gathering, roaming round looking for food, and settled down to farm our own and build cities and civilisations, natural selection wasn't such a big deal.  But that's not true.  They looked at DNA from 16,000 people over 10,000 years, some from ancient burial sites and modern ones from the UK Biobank. We used to think natural selection was changing just a dozen genes, they now reckon it's hundreds.  Coeliac disease is now more common. You m