Wolf & Iron | Virtues, Skills, Manliness!

I really hope I'm not alone on this question. Sometimes events occur that seem to us to have been particularly arranged. If the event is in our favor, it must be God, right? If the event smotes some bad people (tornado, earthquake) it must be God, right? Of course it can't be that simple, so then how can we tell when it's God moving in a particular way in our lives?