Sydney Ideas

How can you obtain the best decision from a group of so-called ‘experts’ about future events such as a natural disaster or a stock market crash? Would you trust a family member’s opinion over a highly cited scientist, an economist, a successful entrepreneur, a military or political leader, or a High Court judge? Or would you trust them all equally? Or none at all? The University of Cambridge’s Professor Herbert Huppert’s research has shown that whether an expert or not, some people are better at assessing the future than others. Using considerable experience and historical data, Professor Huppert and his team have developed a technique known as ‘Expert Elicitation’. The technique assesses the abilities and reliability of each individual expert using a formula and taking into account responses to questions about future events. In this Sydney Ideas lecture, Professor Huppert discusses how this technique has been successfully used in predictions for volcanic eruptions, dam failures, monetary policy, militar