Squawk Box Europe Express

Oil settles about $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent say the U.S. Navy will be helping to escort tankers out of the Gulf once military conditions are met. The U.S. government has sought to further ease prices by lifting sanctions on Russian oil already in transit. Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, tells CNBC that Russia stands by Iran and that the U.S. and its allies are solely to blame for the Gulf crisis. Rate cut expectations are dampened as concerns over a prolonged conflict send the dollar and yields higher while equities fall into the red.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oil prices have pulled back from $100 a barrel following several attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf. Two tankers have been reportedly attacked overnight in Iraqi waters. The IEA announces its largest strategic reserve release of 400m barrels but energy markets remain wary. President Trump and the IEA’s Fatih Birol vow to keep oil flowing. The White House launches a probe into several key trading partners including the EU and China which, under section 301, permit tariffs to counter unfair commerce practices. And in autos news, BMW enjoys a Q4 earnings beat despite tariffs affecting its FY guidance.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oil prices swing after the White House says the U.S. Navy did not escort a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The denial corrected a now-deleted social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The IEA reportedly proposes the largest-ever release of oil reserves as the Iran conflict continues to restrict the movement of global supplies. In autos news, Porsche narrowly misses FY sales expectations and says it will now streamline itself, pivoting away from EVs and overhauling its product line-up. Meanwhile, Renault Group CEO, François Provost, tells CNBC he still believes electric cars are the future.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Donald Trump hails the war effort in Iran as ‘very complete’ and has suggested some oil sanctions could be eased to shore up confidence in the market. However, Trump warned Iran could be struck even harder should it attempt to further disrupt supply. G7 energy ministers are set to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves. The U.S. is reportedly planning for up to 3-4 million barrels to be made jointly available. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ should the conflict continue to disrupt supply. And in autos news, Volkswagen falls short of FY sales expectations but predicts margin improvements in 2026.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oil prices surge to almost $120bbl overnight before falling back to $108bbl. President Trump says he does not believe the market shock will be prolonged. The G7 reportedly considers a joint release of oil from strategic reserves while reports suggest that Saudi Aramco may offer oil on the spot market. The Nikkei and Kospi lead Asian equity losses while Europe and Wall Street look set for continued sell-off pressure. Iran has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali, as the country’s Supreme Leader to defy President Trump selection wishes.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

After six days of conflict in the Middle East, President Trump says the Iranian regime is desperate to end the fighting but the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, refutes the claims. Washington provides India with a 30-day waiver to buy Russia oil in a bid to settle global supply concerns and stabilise rising energy prices with U.S. crude trading at just over $80bbl. We hear from Bundesbank President and ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel who says the impact of the war in Iran is showing early signs of economic strain in Europe.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Global equities stage an impressive comeback as traders absorb fears about the conflict in Middle East. Tech and chip stocks lead the way in Asia with South Korea’s Kospi rebounding to potentially posting its best session in 18 years. Crude also claws back losses despite concerns of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has vowed to protect tankers passing through the Persian Gulf. In Europe, futures are cautious with the Stoxx 50 set to open more than 1 per cent lower. At the NPC in Beijing, the CCP sets its lowest growth outlook in more than three decades, citing ‘severe strain’ on free trade and the global economic forecast.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Equity markets in Asia nose-dive with South Korea’s Kospi posts its worst session in history. Conflict in the Middle East intensifies fears of inflation causing investors to dump tech and semiconductor stocks. The U.S. and Israel continue to strike Iran with notable damage to IRGC headquarters and the Islamic Revolutionary Court in Tehran. President Trump has raised questions over who would succeed the Islamic regime. Trump has also offered to provide risk insurance for vessels using the Persian Gulf and said the U.S. Navy would help escort them out of the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to ease climbing global oil and gas prices.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. strikes at more than 1,000 Iranian sites including IRGC facilities while Tehran retaliates by hitting the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. President Trump says he is prepared to extend the conflict if necessary. Oil and gas shipping prices surge as Iran claims it has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and vows to hit any vessels attempting to pass through. Qatar, meanwhile, has said it is suspending LNG production. Asian markets suffer a day in the red with the Kospi falling by more than 7 per cent. U.S. and European futures indicate continued selling later today.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran intensify as Tehran retaliates hitting targets across the region including American and British bases. President Trump says the attacks could last for several weeks. Crude prices surge as supply through the Strait of Hormuz come under threat. Futures on both sides of the Atlantic point to a sell-off as investors digest events in the Middle East. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is expected to lead declines on Wall Street.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Green Party wins the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester with Labour coming a distant third. The result will pile more pressure and scrutiny on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer ahead of crucial UK local elections in May. Netflix abandons its acquisition deal for Warner Brothers Discovery after it refused to match Paramount’s offer of $31 per share for the group’s entire media portfolio. Netflix shares have moved higher as a result. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been branded a ‘liar’ with a ‘God complex’ by a senior Pentagon official, increasing tensions between the U.S. government and the A.I. giant regarding the use of its model’s guardrails. And in the banking sector, Barclays and Banco Santander see shares dive following reports the lenders have millions in exposure to a collapsed private UK mortgage provider facing fraud allegations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Amid continuing A.I.-related jitters, Nvidia posts another set of stellar quarterly results but Salesforce disappoints with revenue forecasts coming in below analysts’ expectations. However, both companies’ CEOs tell our CNBC colleagues Stateside that market concerns are overblown. Nvidia’s results play their part in a rebound on Wall Street and help tech shares in Asia with the Nikkei closing at a record high. Insurance giant and asset manager Allianz predicts FY operating profit could be as high as €18.4bn – up from almost €17.5bn in 2025.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump delivers the longest SOTU speech in history to defend his second-term record. Trump highlighted progress made on the economy and hailed the ‘golden age’ of America. Several new tech partnership announcements including from Anthropic boost U.S. software stocks in yesterday’s session and help push Asian equities into the green. UK banking giant HSBC posts a FY profit beat ahead of expectations despite being down on the prior year due to a series of one-off charges. CEO George Elhedery tells our colleagues in Hong Kong the recent shake-up at the lender s beginning to bear fruit.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Wall Street suffers another A.I.-fueled sell-off with enterprise software and private capital leading losses. Investors’ fears reappear following the unveiling of a new Anthropic programming language and a report predicting mass white collar job losses. Asia-focused lender Standard Chartered posts a Q4 miss despite seeing a surge in its wealth management business and the announcement of a $1.5bn share buyback. CEO Bill Winters tells CNBC the current tariff turmoil is delaying investments. As an updated global tariffs regime of 10 per cent take effect, U.S. President Donald Trump warns countries against ‘playing games’ with the SCOTUS decision to strike down his reciprocal levy agenda. The EU is to delay approval of its U.S. trade deal following the latest tariff announcements.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Donald Trump unleashes a new 15 per cent global baseline tariff – the maximum legal amount – following the Supreme Court’s ruling that reciprocal country-specific levies were illegal. The European Commission has insisted Washington honours its trade pact following Friday’s SCOTUS verdict. U.S. trade envoy Jamieson Greer says all agreements will remain in place. The tariff retaliation has pushed European futures south and Wall Street is also poised to start the new week deep in the red.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Crude prices move higher with Brent now surpassing $70 a barrel after President Trump warns of potential consequences should Iran fail to reach a deal over its nuclear programme. U.S.-based private credit group Blue Owl announces it will halt investor withdrawals from a debt fund for retail traders, causing shares to slump across the sector. We are live at the A.I. Impact summit in New Delhi where CNBC learns that Nvidia is launching a new $30bn investment into OpenAI. Google DeepMind co-founder and CEO Demis Hassabis says the sector is suffering from a shortfall of memory and chips. And in aviation news, Airbus cuts its output target causing shares to fall but AF-KLM posts more than €2bn in FY profit.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

News of a potential choreographed change at the top of the ECB has pushed Europe’s Stoxx 600 to another record close. Wall Street also closed in the green even though FOMC minutes signal a rate cut pause in the near term. We are live at the A.I. Impact summit in New Delhi where we hear from Microsoft CEO Brad Smith. He tells CNBC that U.S. and European tech companies should be wary of increased Chinese competition within the A.I. sector. Continued tensions in the Arabian Sea over potential U.S. naval intervention in Iran, pushing crude prices more than 4 per cent higher in yesterday’s session. Swiss food giant Nestlé beats Q4 sales expectations and has unveiled plans to streamline its product portfolio.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We are live at the A.I. Impact summit in New Delhi where Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC that a large proportion of enterprise software could end up heavily disrupted by artificial intelligence. German chemicals giant Bayer settles a $7.25bn litigation deal regarding of thousands of lawsuits over the roundup weedkiller. The agreement has pushed shares up by more than 7 per cent at yesterday’s market close in Europe. The Reform UK party is to launch its plans for the OBR and the BoE later today but the central bank’s independence is not up for discussion.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

European equities futures point south as Wall Street is set to return to trading following the President’s Day holiday. A.I. concerns remain with the Nasdaq stuck deep in the red. Eurogroup ministers meet in Brussels to plan to strengthen the euro’s role globally. The bloc is also preparing to unveil new draft laws designed to protect key sectors of industry. In Geneva, a second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran are due to begin with President Trump indirectly involved. Officials from Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. also meet for another round of peace negotiations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists that Washington wants to reform rather than abandon the trans-Atlantic alliance. We speak exclusively to German foreign minister Johann Wadephul at the Munich Security Conference who says Rubio’s speech assured the path of future cooperation. European equities are called higher while U.S. markets are shut for President’s Day with A.I. concerns continuing to be felt across sectors. Japanese Q4 GDP disappoints, coming in at only 0.2 per cent on the year and far below expectations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.