Complexity Premia

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new, punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including:  The coming global recession  and monster default cycle;  Why illiquidity is concealing huge risks;  The rise of risk-free yield and what it means for asset-allocation;  Why there will be no post crash boom in asset prices; How the great housing crash has momentarily stalled but is far from over; and Why RBA Governor Philip Lowe should be replaced by an RBA outsider.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 60

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new, lively episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including:  How the RBA is wielding Thor's Hammer, and it has really yet to hit home How we are now getting major bank bonds paying interest rates as high as 6.75% pa How many asset-classes have yet to be properly smoked by higher rates, including commercial property, residential property, private credit, high yield bonds, venture capital, private equity etc   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In the first episode of the Complexity Premia podcast for 2023, we discuss a range of important developments including:  Performance across all asset-classes in 2022, including equities, bonds, housing and others Outlook for returns in 2023 and the valuation mispricings we consider to be most attractive Review of our 2022 forecasts and what we expect from the macroeconomy and financial markets in 2023   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The vi

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  Why there will likely be a global recession in 2023 and what this means for markets Why the Aussie housing market is set to endure a lot more pain as 1-in-4 borrowers have their interest rates more than double Why there are now very interesting opportunities in bank bond markets following the large increase in risk-free rates and a substantial widening in credit spreads, which has meant that many bonds are paying superior yields to equities and property What higher cash rates mean for valuations across all asset-cl

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  How according to Coolabah’s new analysis, hordes of ‘zombie’ companies in Australia and the US are going to die as economies are purged of their weakest enterprises  Why this is related to the explosion in private credit funds and high yield bond issuance, which have provided finance to companies that cannot typically get loans from more conservative and highly regulated banks (think of this as a new sub-prime crisis)  The outlook for interest rates and the various dilemmas confronting the RBA, including an ind

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market. In this heavy-hitting episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: The coming US recession; The bounce-back in fixed-income/bond markets in July; The record Aussie housing correction; and New investment opportunities that are now emerging given the radical increase in interest rates and credit spreads.    This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has b

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: The string of losses for bond indices in 2022 The implications of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads for investors The silver lining for investors getting the best 10 year interest rates on Aussie government bonds March performance for long-only and long-short strategies How geopolitical risks have amp

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Dr Stephen Parker, another portfolio manager at Coolabah, to discuss whether crypto is a 21st century version of the great Tulip Bulb Bubble. In particular, they chat about: What the history of financial crises tells us about non-bank innovations that threaten the conventional, government-backed regimes; and Whether crypto delivers on the value propositions that promoters spruik: namely, being a stable and viable store of wealth outside of centralised governments; acting as a powerful inflation hedge in a world awash with money printin

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:   • The trend to higher rates across developed and emerging markets into 2022 • Why the Greenspan-Bernanke put option may have expired and the implications for asset prices including equities and housing • December bond market performance • NSW's extraordinary budget turnaround as it pulls a $20 billion rabbit out of its hat • Whether the bank and corporate bond market is becoming “the next quant revolution”   This information is suitable for wholesal

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:    • Why Aussie house prices will fall 20% if the RBA lifts rates by 100 basis points • Coolabah’s research on using advanced models to forecast global wars • The battle between the RBA and the bond market bandits • October bond market performance  • NSW's commendable efforts to slash debt issuance by up to $22 billion   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Lt

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:    Correlation convergence between interest rate duration and equities; Portfolio performance across a range of strategies; Avoiding investing in bonds issued by entities based in and/or controlled by non-democratic countries on an ESG basis; APRA closing down the $139bn CLF by end-2022 and the consequences for fixed income assets; Opportunities in government bonds;  RBA QE3; and ESG activism.    This information is suitable for wholesale inve

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  Coolabah's latest research forecasting both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia, which we forecast will be by January or February 2022; When governments will be comfortable re-opening our borders, which we project will be mid 2022; and How the exodus of foreign workers from Australia has contributed to the largest surge in job vacancies since the 1970s and placed downward pressure on the official unemployment rate, which will likely be revers

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     This special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, who replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. You can download the full research paper with the housing forecasts, including charts and figures, here.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Lt

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  The bond market recovery in March 2021;   Our performance in the month;   Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios;   The RBA’s QE3 program;   Credit market performance;   Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which ho

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this short episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:      • The biggest bond market bloodbath since 1994;  • Our portfolio performance in February 2021 across a range of strategies;  • The likelihood of macro-prudential constraints being eventually applied to Aussie housing;  • How the RBA’s governor, Phil Lowe, brutally bashed the bond market bandits; and    • The RBA’s QE 3 and 4 programs.    This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutio

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:     Our portfolio performance in January 2021 across a range of strategies;   The RBA’s successful QE 1.0 program;  Our forecasts for the RBA’s QE 2.0 program, which were validated in February;  Why the RBA’s cash rate should be -3% to -4%, which will necessitate QE 3.0 and QE 4.0;    The Reddit Rambo’s retail revolution, which is positive, not negative, for equities;   The risk of WWIII erupting over Taiwan; and  Why QE will not blow a housing bubble, as

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.   Happy New Year listeners! We are really sorry for the long delay since our last episode, but we have been super busy managing our clients’ money! In this action-packed episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, which is our first for 2021, we discuss a range of issues, including:    Our portfolio performance in 2020;  Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally;   The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and  Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.  T

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean.    In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:   how you can turn beta into alpha by anticipating policymakers' behaviours; whether there is a difference between traders and investors (or are they actually doing exactly the same thing over different horizons); why markets have been ignoring the second COVID-19 waves; the long-term impact of central banks disintermediating markets, and whether Western statism is ironically coming to resemble socialist central planning;  forecasting Victoria’s COVID-19 peak in late July

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean. In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:  why the emergence of effective COVID-19 vaccines will be the next big regime change for markets with both Moderna and Oxford University leading the charge towards the delivery of a solution before the end of this year;  a detailed discussion of markets in June and over the last three months, including our trading activity which has encompassed more than $9.3 billion of purchases and sales over the last 6-7 months;  analysis of the widely misunderstood subject of bond/credit

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean. In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the best investment opportunities in fixed-income markets after a massive rally over April and May; the battle between central banks and fundamentals; the outlook for Aussie housing; and Cold War 2.0.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not r