Codywillard

Stepping back and looking at the broader economic trends, the anecdotal data from my NYC whirlwind trip and the replies I got — my analysis continues to point to this economy being stronger than the consensus expects it is and most signs currently point to the economy continuing to expand, with some acceleration in the employment numbers too. Given that economic analysis and forecast for more growth, I no longer expect the Fed to cut rates or issue any formal announcements of new forms of QE. This recently burgeoning tightening cycle from our US Central Bank appears more likely to continue than not. Remember that we want to be long when the Fed is in the early stages of a tightening phase, because for the last three decades the markets have boomed in the early- to mid- parts of the tightening phases (see 1996-1999, 2003-2007 for example). Conventional wisdom of “Don’t Fight the Fed” has been dead wrong during most of the cycles for the last thirty years. Recall that I’ve been more inclined to be bearish if I