Cozen Oconnor Public Strategies - The Beltway Briefing

Ahead of the holidays, President Biden has some good news to be thankful for: the House finally passed the cornerstone plan of his agenda, the social spending and climate bill. On the other side of the Thanksgiving table, another huge challenge lies ahead for Democrats: convincing moderate Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ) to sign onto the legislation. As Democrats fight over the scope of their policies and Republicans grapple with the influence of the former President, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, Kaitlyn Martin, and Tristan Breaux break it all down, while guest-host Jim Davis provides a view on the growing divisions in Washington from Pennsylvania.

President Biden will celebrate a victory tomorrow, signing the bipartisan infrastructure bill into law. But as the President heralds his accomplishments, he has also been running into a new economic reality, as inflation has surged 6.2%, the largest increase in 31 years. Not only the inflation fight could make it harder for Democrats to pass their social spending bill, but it also calls into question whether the Biden administration has a handle on this problem. The President acknowledged for the first time this week that inflation is “worrisome” – a response, perhaps, to the political reality, as new polls show Biden’s approval rating has ticked to a new low, largely due to a negative shift among Democrats and independents. As the holidays approach and Americans are seeing higher prices on everything from gas to groceries, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss President Biden’s performance and the state of the economy, which together send a stark war

The results in Tuesday’s elections all but confirmed the Democrats’ tenuous control of government and promoted further soul searching among Democrats about whether they misread the public’s desire for sweeping change. Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers are feeling bullish about their chances next year with the House and Senate both up for grabs. Is the pendulum swinging back towards the GOP? What do the results say about former President Trump’s influence on the electorate? As Democrats point fingers about their election losses, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Towner French, Jerry Kilgore, Julia Hammond, and Tristan Breaux discuss what lessons both parties should take from the results.

As President Biden gathers with G20 leaders in Europe to tackle Covid-19 vaccines, supply chain woes, corporate tax issues, and the climate crisis, his domestic agenda continues to be in flux and candidates make their final pitch in Virginia’s race for governor. Public Strategies’ regular hosts Howard Schweitzer, Patrick Martin, and Kaitlyn Martin are joined by Jerry Kilgore, a former Virginia State Attorney General and Julia Hammond, former legislative director for Virginia Governor McDonnell, to discuss the state of Virginia race, a potential preview of next year’s crucial midterm elections.

Racing to negotiate, Democrats scale back their plans to upgrade the nation’s social safety net and combat climate change. Ending the month of October without anything close to a deal would land another blow on a president already suffering from falling approval ratings that have not been helped by the Democratic infighting over his agenda. As Americans’ worry about the supply-chain back up ahead of holidays, pain at the pump, and rising inflation, Public Strategies’ Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the high stakes for congressional Democrats and the White House to reach a deal in the week ahead.

Legislative standoffs are nothing new at the Capitol, but the scope and scale of the current stalemate is as dramatic as it is head-scratching: the drama over raising the country’s debt ceiling is over for now only, as the government faces another potential shutdown in December; House Democrats are holding up President Biden’s infrastructure legislation; and the Democratic Party is still at loggerheads over how to structure its domestic policy bills. Meanwhile, with less than a month until Election Day, the Governors’ races are getting tighter in New Jersey and especially Virginia, where public opinion about Democrats is weighing on candidate McAuliffe’s standing in the polls. As Democrats in Washington struggle to get anything done, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, and Towner French discuss what all the major players do and don’t want out of the domestic spending bills and opine on the two gubernatorial races.

After a week of frenzy and public infighting - with Progressives holding firm and refusing to support the infrastructure bill and moderates pushing back on the price tag of the reconciliation package, House Democrats again delayed their vote on the Senate’s infrastructure bill as they failed to agree on the separate $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. Desperate to find a compromise that can win favor in a narrowly divided Congress, White House officials have begun contemplating trade-offs that could result in reshaping or jettisoning key policies of President Biden’s agenda. As deadlocked Democrats go back to the negotiating table, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss whether there is enough trust left for Biden to make significant cuts to his cornerstone legislation to win support from moderate holdouts without losing votes from the powerful progressive block.

With progressive Democrats holding firm on domestic spending bills, moderates trying to trim the cost, and Republicans largely out of the action, lawmakers on Capitol Hill are hurtling toward a political showdown over President Biden’s vast and ambitious economic agenda. Adding to the challenge, they have only a few days left to adopt a measure to fund the government, preventing a shutdown in the middle of a pandemic. Ahead of one of the most important legislative weeks of Biden’s presidency, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, and Towner French discuss the fraught political landscape Congressional leaders are trying to navigate in the midst of a fast-ticking clock, where any misstep could have dire consequences for the national economy.

Congress is headed for a high-stakes showdown over the debt ceiling. The federal government could run out of funding authority next month if the two sides can’t crack a deal. Will the federal government enter yet another shutdown and create a debt crisis that would rattle global financial markets? Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the political football around the debt limit and the status of president Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending plan, and ponder the road forward for the GOP following Thursday’s announcement from Rep. Gonzalez (R-OH), one of only 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, that he will not seek reelection.

A solemn nation on Saturday marked two decades since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, a milestone that came less than a month after President Biden formally ended the war in Afghanistan launched in response to the attacks. Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin talk about their memories of that calamitous day in American history and how the country has changed in the 20 years since, and discuss how August turned into a month of crises for Biden’s presidency – with the Taliban toppling Kabul and the Afghan government, the killing of 13 U.S. service members in Afghanistan, rising Covid-19 cases and deaths, persistent inflation concerns, declining poll numbers, and an uncertain path forward for his sweeping infrastructure agenda.

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his resignation on Tuesday, a week after State AG Tish James issued a scathing report detailing accusations of sexual harassment and one day after state lawmakers convened for impeachment proceedings. Underscoring both the tarnished brand of her soon-to-be predecessor and the public’s desire for a reset, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is signaling the start of a new era in Albany politics as she prepares to become the Empire State’s first female governor and the first governor since Grover Cleveland to represent Western New York. Public Strategies’ NY team, including Ken Fisher, Stuart Shorenstein, Katie Schwab, Rose Christ, and Jamie Ansorge, discuss Ms. Hochul’s experience and leadership style, how it stands in sharp contrast to Cuomo’s, and what the transition may mean for the future of New York City and State.

A partisan stalemate is poised to drag out Senate efforts to advance the infrastructure bill for days, with GOP Sen. Hagerty (TN) vowing he will block attempts to speed up passage of the legislation. But the Senate still remains on track to conclude its work on proposed revisions, potentially by early next week, putting Democrats one step closer to delivering on President Biden’s economic policy priorities. Ahead of the August recess, Public Strategies’ Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin break down the current status of the bipartisan measure and discuss other key political events of the week, including the questions about the fate of NY Governor Cuomo raised by the damning report released by New York AG.

On Wednesday, just days before the House left for its August recess, Senate Democrats and Republicans banded together to advance an infrastructure proposal - including $550 billion in new spending, to improve the country’s aging infrastructure, overcoming months of political deadlock on one of President Biden’s signature economic policy priorities. Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin break down the related developments, and discuss other key issues in Washington last week.

What happens in New York, the country’s largest and most diverse city, has national ramifications. What is the projected mayoral race winner Eric Adams’ relationship with NY Governor Cuomo, whose investigation by state attorney general’s office has upended his national reputation as he gears up to run for a fourth term next year? What about Adams’ rapport with President Biden, whose ambitious legislative agenda depends on his ability to hold onto Democrats’ slim majorities in the House and the Senate? How does Hakeem Jeffries, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus and has AOC in his backyard, and his fellow Brooklynite Chuck Schumer, help Biden pursue his plans? · In a special edition of Beltway Briefing, moderated by Ken Fisher, New York Public Strategies’ Katie Schwab, Stuart Shorenstein, Jamie Ansorge, and Rose Christ discuss what the NYC mayoral race means and provide other updates on New York’s political direction.

The Supreme Court on Thursday, by a 7-2 vote, left “Obamacare” intact and showed that the conservative majority doesn’t fall along partisan lines as much as the left thinks it does. In other big news this week, antitrust scholar and Big Tech critic Lina Khan – a prominent figure in the “New Brandeis Movement” - which espouses a 21st century version of the populist competition policies once championed by Justice Brandeis, was sworn in as FTC chairwoman, after President Biden elevated her to the agency’s top post. Is Biden, in his early policy moves, developing an answer to Trumpist populism? Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin debate this week’s events inside the Beltway and ponder whether Biden is developing a new policy synthesis that is as an antidote to conservative populism.

President Biden is in Cornwall, England, where the G-7 annual economic summit began on Friday with a sense of new unity among the group and an endorsement of the theme that a renewed global alliance and commitment to multilateralism were ready to prove themselves capable. Yet, in an odd dynamic, it was the former president who was in the headlines of all top publications, an acknowledgment he is still the GOP’s engine — even as his actual voice has been diminished - and thus very much still a factor in their news cycle and political coverage. Are we are then really in the post-Trump era? Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Towner French discuss Trump's continued importance in Republican politics and underscore the intensity of current crises around the globe, noting it extends beyond the former president and his efforts to undermine election results.

The U.S. appears to be trying to close the curtain on the pandemic, as COVID-19 cases continue to fall and increasing numbers of Americans are getting vaccinated. Combined with the latest jobs report, with the economy knocking the unemployment rate below 6 percent, many analysts are hoping for an economic boom this summer as a full “reopening” draws nearer. But is it really that simple, or are there signs that a broader shift might be remaking the economy in ways that make it harder to see the road ahead? Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the impact of the jobs report on the biggest questions shaping the partisan debate, including Biden’s multitrillion-dollar spending push, and ponder whether we are seeing long-term behavioral shifts or short-term alterations on the road to economic recovery.

Mask-wearing in the U.S. has become another flashpoint in the partisan culture wars. As a result, despite the recent change in CDC mask guidelines, which signaled a welcome shift toward pre-pandemic social norms yet left people across the country scrambling to make sense of the abrupt change, the debate about masks will almost surely continue. On Monday, the Supreme Court agreed to reconsider a controversial Mississippi abortion law. It will be a blockbuster case, which will thrust the court -- with a 6-3 conservative majority -- into the 2022 midterm election debate. Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the cultural aspect of the rapidly changing mask rules and ponder the implications of the Supreme Court’s decision to revisit an issue that still deeply divides the country.

A president who prides himself on choreography and planning faced a string of unexpected events last week that showcased the need for political agility: from the Colonial Pipeline shutdown and the resulting surge in gas prices to a rapid escalation of violence in the Middle East, a spike in the costs of consumer goods, and new CDC mask guidance which, although welcome by most Americans, caught the President’s aides off guard and prompted a confusing rush in states to update their rules. Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the simultaneous foreign and domestic crises that amounted to a reality check for a president who has placed nearly all of his political capital in resolving longer-term issues, such as ending the pandemic and served as a reminder that any manner of crises can intervene to throw the trajectory off course.

A months-long dispute over Republican principles among House leaders and across the broader GOP landscape is expected to culminate this week with a vote to remove Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney from her position as the third-ranking House Republican. Meanwhile, Friday’s mediocre jobs report for April puzzled many analysts who expected hundreds of thousands of more new jobs and added fuel to arguments that no more government spending should be approved until the effects of the last package can be understood. Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the GOP leadership fracas and its impact on Biden’s agenda and address major questions about the economic recovery raised by the jobs report.