Mark Leonard's World In 30 Minutes

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, for an emergency room episode diving into the dire situation in Gaza. After the March ceasefire collapsed, Israel’s intensified offensive—where it plans to occupy 75% of the strip—and an 80-day humanitarian blockade have pushed Gaza into famine. The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private US-led initiative bypassing UNRWA, has faltered, with its head resigning amid claims it enables displacement rather than aid. Mark and Julien discuss what the EU can do to address the crisis and attempt to shift Israel’s course—as European leaders sharpen their criticism and review their trade ties. Is Europe finally finding its voice? Or is it too late to alter Gaza’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on 27 May. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former assistant secretary general at NATO and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Ivan Rogers, formerly Britain’s permanent representative to the EU, adviser for Europe and global issues to David Cameron, and principle private secretary to Tony Blair. It has been four days after the EU-UK summit and the dust is settling—but questions remain. Together, Mark, Camille and Ivan dive into the security and defence pact, the political asymmetries behind the deal, and what it means for Britain’s domestic landscape. How does the new EU-UK security and defence pact compare to other deals with global partners? Has the UK’s position as demandeur reshaped its leverage, and is this really a win for Europe? And what role will the summit deal play in the Labour government’s European strategy?Bookshelf:Allies at War: The Politics of Defeating Hitler by Tim BouverieRépublique impériale by Raymond Aron This podcast was recorded on May 22nd. Hosted on Acast. See acast.c

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for an emergency room episode dissecting Sunday’s pivotal elections in Poland and Romania. Their discussion, which was recorded after high-stakes voting had taken place across Portugal, Poland and Romania, zooms in on some surprising outcomes. Romania’s liberal candidate, Dan Barna, defied polls to defeat far-right contender George Simion, while Poland’s presidential race heads to a tight runoff between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and right-wing Karol Nawrocki. With Poland’s right-wing bloc commanding 54% in the first round, the stakes are high for Europe’s liberal project. Can Poland replicate Romania’s liberal surge? Or will populism reshape the region’s trajectory? This podcast was recorded on May 19.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mij Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group and ECFR council member, for an emergency room episode dissecting the long-awaited EU-UK summit.  While the summit’s agreement sets precedents on policies including an agri-food deal, and a security and defence partnership, it falls short of achieving ambitious goals like a customs union. Mark and Mij’s discussion, recorded as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Antonio Costa and British prime minister Keir Starmer announce the summit’s outcomes, delves into how the EU-UK reset has been marked by such progress—alongside continued unresolved tensions.   Amid domestic political pressures, and within a fragmented global order, can this summit lay the foundation for deeper cooperation? Or is it simply one cautious step in a deeply fraught political landscape?  This podcast was recorded on May 19. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more

Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, to discuss how President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape Europe’s political landscape. Their conversation builds on Célia’s recent policy brief, “MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe”: she argues that, while Trump’s foreign policy may appear impulsive, it follows a clear ideological playbook which casts Europe not as a partner, but as a target for intimidation, transformation or outright subjugation.Together, Mark and Célia explore what Trump’s worldview means for key European actors and consider how his second-term agenda could erode transatlantic trust. Can Europe push back effectively? Have European leaders grasped the scale of the challenge, or are they still hoping for appeasement? And what would a “MAGA-shaped Europe” look like by the end of Trump’s term?Bookshelf: MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe by Célia BelinOne Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez Hosted on Aca

Far from a grand bargain, the US-China trade deal rolls back President Donald Trump’s post-Liberation Day tariff spiral—which peaked at 145%—to pre-April levels. This will avert empty US shelves, but leaves underlying tensions unresolved. In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to dissect the recent de-escalation, which the parties agreed this week in Geneva. The conversation explores who holds the upper hand, the prospects for a 90-day negotiation period, and the broader clash between deal-making instincts and systemic rivalry. For Europe, caught between US pressure and a less desperate China, the stakes are high as it navigates an upcoming EU-China summit. Is this a fleeting truce or a sign of deeper shifts in global trade?This episode was recorded on May 14. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the weekend, India and Pakistan came closer to all-out war than perhaps at any point in the past 20 to 25 years as missiles flew back and forth across the border. At the point of this podcast recording, a fragile ceasefire appears to be holding—but tensions remain high.In this week’s emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific programme, to discuss how the recent escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan highlights the potential for nuclear conflict. They also explore America’s role in mediating the situation, implications for Europe in light of the evolving geopolitical landscape, and the growing influence of China in the region.What has led to the most recent conflict events between India and Pakistan? How did each side negotiate the ceasefire? And, as Europeans, what lessons have we learned from the countries’ retaliatory acts? This episode was recorded on May 12th 2025.  Hosted on Acast. See acast

As of May 6th, Germany has a new government, led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz in coalition with the CSU and SPD. Despite a last-minute hitch, Merz is now safely installed in the Bundeskanzleramt in Berlin, from where he immediately jetted off to Paris and Warsaw for high-level political meetings. In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow, and Jana Puglierin, ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the new German government and the legacy of the previous “traffic light” coalition. How will Merz’s government differ to its predecessor? What will its main challenges be? And what does Merz’s embarrassing first round defeat in the Bundestag suggest for the rest of his term?This podcast was recorded on May 8th, 2025.Bookshelf:Podcast | What’s next for Berlin?From fence-sitter to pace-setter: How Merz’s Germany can lead Europe by Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe.From territorial provocations and budget slashes to institutional chaos and a reordering of US foreign policy, Donald Trump’s early months in office have shaken American governance and global diplomacy alike.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s editorial director and head of the Washington office, to unpack what we’ve learned so far. What foreign policy vision is emerging from this administration? Why have Americans remained passive in the face of democratic backsliding? And what does this all mean for Europe’s role in the world?Bookshelf: Railroaded: The Transcontinentals and the Making of Modern America by Richard WhiteThis podcast was recorded on 28th of April 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor after Social Democratic Party members approved a coalition agreement with the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union—bringing Olaf Scholz’s tenure to an end. In this emergency episode of World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to break down what happens next. How have the ministries been divided up? What does it reveal about the direction of the new government? And how will it shape Germany’s role in Europe and the world? This podcast was recorded on 30th of April 2025.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the 100th day of Donald Trump’s second term, the war in Ukraine—which he promised to end within 24 hours—rages on. As Trump’s impatience with the conflict grows, Ukraine and its European allies are scrambling to prevent an imposed peace deal that would see Kyiv recognise Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine , and abandon its hopes of joining NATO.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, visiting fellow at ECFR and former foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Čaputová, to discuss how diplomacy has shifted in recent days. How serious are Trump’s threats to walk away from the peace process? Could direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia soon follow? And what options remain for Europe if the United States steps back from supporting Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 28th of April 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After years of stalled diplomacy, the US and Iran are back in high-level talks. Surprise meetings have taken place in Oman and Rome, with more expected soon. Could this be President Donald Trump’s long-awaited foreign policy win? Or will competing agendas, regional tensions and internal divisions doom the negotiations before they begin?This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Mohsen Milani, executive director of the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies and professor of politics at the University of South Florida; and Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs (IAI) in Rome, to explore what both the US and Iran really want out of the talks. What role can Europe play, especially after its failed efforts to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? And how do powers like China and Russia fit into the US-Iran equation?This podcast episode was recorded on April 24th 2025.Bookshelf:No country for love by Yaroslav TrofimovC

Two weeks after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement shook global markets, he has now offered most countries a 90-day reprieve—while simultaneously escalating trade tensions with China by imposing harsher penalties. So far, China has responded by matching each tariff hike with its own response.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and head of its geoeconomics initiative, and Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to delve into the complexities of the China-US trade war. Together, they explore the current tariff landscape, the strategies employed by both nations, and the implications for Europe and other external actors. They also discuss China’s aggressive response, potential trade chokepoints and the potential for regional diplomacy.Who will blink first, Xi Jinping or Trump? Is this a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies? And what risks and opportunities does the US-China trade war carry for Europe?This podcast episode was recorded on Ap

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mujtaba Rahman, managing director, Europe, at Eurasia Group, to explore the evolving dynamic between the EU and the UK. With a new British government under Keir Starmer and shifting global currents, what are the real opportunities—and constraints—for a meaningful reset in EU-UK relations?Mark and Mujtaba discuss the urgency of deeper cooperation on security and defence, the complexity of trade relations, and the need for joint solutions on migration and climate. With a crucial EU-UK summit taking place on May 19th, they argue for an ambitious strategy that includes dynamic alignment, a serious look at the customs union debate, and bolder thinking on how to rebuild trust and deliver tangible results on both sides of the Channel. Can the UK and EU find common ground, or will political caution get in the way? Will ambition triumph over pragmatism? And, in this new chapter, what does success really look like for EU-UK relations?Bookshelf:Age of Vice by Deepti KapoorHouse of Hu

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, who have recently returned from Taipei. Together, they explore Taiwan’s delicate balancing act as China ramps up its military drills and as the second Trump administration’s priorities shift.  The conversation dives into Taiwan’s efforts to secure US support through economic investments like TSMC’s Arizona project and its “porcupine strategy” to deter Chinese invasion, while drawing striking parallels with Ukraine’s resilience. They also examine Europe’s stake in the Indo-Pacific, from safeguarding supply chains to supporting democratic allies. Can Taiwan’s bristly defences hold off China? Or will it need more from its partners to weather this storm?  This podcast was recorded on 1st April.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and geoeconomics team leader. They explore the dramatic implications of Donald Trump’s unexpected and aggressive tariff policies announcement on 2nd April—which he has dubbed “Independence Day.”   Mark and Agathe discuss the economic shockwaves hitting the US—where tariffs threaten inflation and the acceleration of a looming recession—as well as their cascading effects on Europe and the global trade system. From the EU’s strategic retaliation options to the fracturing of globalisation, they ask: is this a fleeting disruption or the dawn of a chaotic new economic order? This podcast was recorded on 3 April. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office, to dive into the seismic news shaking French politics: the conviction of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN). A French court has found Le Pen guilty of misusing European Parliament funds, sentencing her to a five-year ban from public office and effectively sidelining her from France’s 2027 presidential race. Mark and Célia discuss the fallout in France—from the RN’s shock and unpreparedness for the court case outcome—to the broader ripples across Europe, where other populist leaders face similar legal challenges. Is this a triumph for judicial accountability? Or a risky move that could fuel populist backlash? This podcast was recorded on 1 April 2025. Slip of Le Pen: How the conviction of the French politician will fuel Europe’s far right by Célia Bélin, Camille Lons and Pawel Zerka. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard hosts an expert panel to dive into Europe’s evolving relationships with Asia amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration. Joining from Berlin is Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme; from London, James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at ECFR with extensive Asia experience; and from New Delhi, Rudra Chowdhury, director of Carnegie India and a key collaborator on digital initiatives.  Together, they explore how Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies are prompting Europe to rethink its strategic ties, spotlighting the European Commission’s high-profile visit to India led by Ursula von der Leyen. The panel examines Europe’s outreach to countries like India, Japan and South Korea; the complexities of its relationship with China; and the mixed reactions across European capitals—from Paris’ push for strategic autonomy to Rome’s wariness of Chinese investments. They also delve into India’s enthusiastic view of Trump and the potential for a reinvigorated EU-Indi

This week, Mark Leonard joins forces with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and US programme director, to unpick two momentous geopolitical disruptions. First, a stunning scandal emerged from a Signal group chat, where senior US officials—including the vice president, secretary of defence and CIA director—carelessly looped in the Atlantic’s editor-in-chief to discuss military strikes in Yemen. Among their plans, the chat laid bare the US administration’s disdain for Europe and schemes to extract economic advantages from allies—while exposing a shocking disregard for protocol. Mark and Jeremy then turn their focus to Riyadh, where whispers of a US-Russia pact are surfacing. This could mean reviving Russia’s agricultural markets, securing a Black Sea ceasefire and halting assaults on energy infrastructure. But alarm bells are ringing and Ukraine might be left in the cold. Worse yet, the Trump administration seems to be drifting away from supporting European defence while cosying up to Putin. Coul

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow for ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The arrest sparked nationwide protests; together they explore whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bold move signals a critical shift for Turkish democracy, potentially steering the country toward a less competitive system reminiscent of Russia or Iran. Their conversation examines Turkey’s deeply polarised society, the significant role of its Kurdish minority and Erdogan’s strategic manoeuvring in a rapidly evolving global landscape, especially following Donald Trump’s re-election. As Europe’s influence over Turkey weakens, Mark and Aslı consider the broader implications for the future of Turkish politics and its increasingly strained relationship with the West. This podcast was recorded on 24 March.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more info