Horns Of A Dilemma

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russian cyber and information operations boasted a fearsome reputation. Surprisingly, Russian cyber operations don't seem to have played a major role in the invasion, and Ukrainian information operations have routinely bested often-clumsy Russian efforts. As Christopher Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, explains in this week's Horns of a Dilemma, the Russian invasion was preceded by cyber attacks, but a combination of skilled response by the Ukrainian government and adroit sharing of intelligence by the United States and western partners has blunted the effectiveness of Russian cyber and information operations. Krebs points out that despite the stymied Russian cyber and information campaign (and partly because of its lack of success) this is a very dangerous time in the world of cyber security and information warfare. This conversation was recorded at the University of Texas, Austin, where Krebs spoke on March 10 as part of the Br

Vladimir Putin's announcement that he had ordered Russian nuclear forces to a heightened alert posture in response to Western sanctions was a sobering reminder of the way in which nuclear weapons may empower and embolden a state to violate international law and norms. For nearly two decades, the top security concern of United States leaders regarding Iran has been preventing the leaders of the Islamic Republic from attaining this same power. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy discuss the history, current status, and future of these efforts. This event was recorded live at the University of Texas, Austin on February 8, 2022.

Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is remembered for many things, among them his iconic observation that, "There are known knowns--there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns--that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know." The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is full of reminders of the importance of understanding what we know, recognizing what we don't know, and being open to the idea that there is likely more we don't yet know. In order to help make sense of it, the Clements Center for National Security, Asia Policy Program, LBJ School of Public Affairs, Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Intelligence Studies Project, and Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies at the University of Texas, Austin hosted "War in Ukraine: An Expert Panel Discussion" on Wednesday, March 2. The experts included Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center (and e

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Joanna Chiu, author of China Unbound: A New World Disorder. Informed by over a decade reporting on human rights in China, Chiu brings a nuanced view of the way in which Western leaders, both those who had faith in the ability of capitalism to bring democratic reform, and those who adopted a hard-nosed realpolitik view, have been complicit in China's rise and have enabled widespread suppression of free expression and human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party.  Chiu illuminates the role of economics, power politics, and the narrow pursuit of Western self-interest in helping to give rise to a Chinese state that stands opposed to Western values. This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin as part of the Asia Policy Program, sponsored jointly by the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for International Security and Law. Chiu is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens, founding director of the Asia Policy Program

In the late 1980's a Ukrainian-born immigrant to the United States who took the stage name Yakov Smirnoff became a brief comedy sensation with lines such as, "In Russia, we have only two TV channels. Channel 1 is propaganda. Channel 2 is a KGB officer telling you to turn back to channel one." This week's Horns of a Dilemma podcast explores the uncomfortable ways in which jokes about stifled expression in the Soviet Union still resonate in Russia today. Vladimir Kara-Murza is a Russian politician and opposition leader who was twice poisoned and left in a coma by agents of Vladimir Putin's regime. Kara-Murza speaks with Professor Kiril Avramov of the Strauss Center's Intelligence Studies Project and the Global Disinformation Laboratory at the University of Texas, Austin, about freedom of expression and political dissent in contemporary Russia under Putin.  Kara-Murza and Avramov discuss the role of propaganda, the rigging of elections, and the effect of social media on Putin's control of information. They concl

Cyber security presents a particular challenge because, in addition to the rapidly changing threat environment and enormous potential attack surface, no single person or organizaiton has authority over all of the players whose cooperation is necessary to keep public and private networks and information secure. In this week's Horns of a Dilemma, Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, speaks with Brandon Wales, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Wales' job is to ensure effective collaboration in cyber security efforts. In this discussion, he highlights the authorities available to CISA and discusses responses to several recent vulnerabilities. This discussion was held as part of the "Cyber 9/12 Challenge" conducted by the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we listen to a discussion between Clements Center Executive Director (and TNSR editor in chief) Will Inboden, and Professor Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. They are talking about Brands' new book, Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About About Great Power Rivalry Today.  While the  geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China is frequently described as "a new Cold War," Brands and Inboden go far deeper than a mere surface comparison to illuminate the ways in which the Cold War experience may help to guide American strategists in the competition with China, as well as ways in which policymakers would be ill-advised to treat today's strategic challenges as a sequel to the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Sandra Fahy of Carleton University about the way in which states use video evidence to try to falsely defend themselves against claims of human rights abuses. While many of us might associate misleading video with modern technology, such as deep-fakes, Fahy traces the phenomenon to the earliest days of video and shows how it continues through the present in states such as Korea, China, and Afghanistan under the Taliban. This event was sponsored by the Asia Policy Project, a joint program of the Clements Center and the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

As the threat of Russian invasion looms over Ukraine, this week's epsiode of Horns of a Dilemma helps to clarify the origins of the post-Cold War security structure in Europe and the role of NATO expansion and enlargement in defining both Western and Russian threat perception.  Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden sits down with Professor Mary Sarrotte to discuss her book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Key among the many issues they discuss is the competing visions between Russian and American and European leaders regarding the status of Ukraine.  This event was held in November at the University of Texas, Austin and sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we continue with a panel discussion that follows author Wesley Morgan's discussion of his book, The Hardest Place. If you haven't listened to last week's episode, which includes Morgan's book talk, you may want to do so, since this week's episode includes discussion of events that are covered in Morgan's talk. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, the first of two parts, author Wesley Morgan discusses his book, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan's Pech Valley. Morgan has written an extraordinary biography of the American presence in Afghanistan, focusing on one particular place, and through the history of the American war in that place, capturing the 20-year American war effort in it heroism, nobility, hubris, and folly.  Morgan spoke at the University of Texas, Austin, in an event jointly sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business. He is introduced by Paul Edgar, Associate Director of the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from retired U.S. Army Colonel Dr. Christopher Kolenda about his new book, Zero Sum Victory: What We Get Wrong About War.  Kolenda draws on his experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to help explain why it feels as if the United States has had what he calls "the inverse Midas touch" when it comes to interventions: everything we've tried has bogged down into quagmire or defeat.  Kolenda's argues that U.S. leaders aren't adept at identifying measures of success other than total victory, that they are slow to learn and adapt, and that when the decision is made to withdraw, they often mishandled that process, as well.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.  

This week's Horns of a Dilemma may be a first in that it deals with a work of fiction.  Author David McCloskey joins Stephen Slick of the Intelligence Studies Project at the University of Texas, Austin, to discuss his new novel, Damascus Station. In the novel, McCloskey draws on his years as a CIA analyst to lend realism to both the civil war in Syria (the setting for the novel) and to the culture and activities of the CIA. The book talk is followed by a discussion between McCloskey and Slick about McCloskey's perspective on intelligence and the CIA in particular. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Joseph Stalin said at the 1943 Tehran Conference that World War II would be won with "British brains, American steel, and Soviet blood." Indeed, the scale of Soviet losses in the war is nearly unimaginable: Some estimates place the number of military and civilian deaths at over 20 million.  But the scale of Russian losses, and the bitter hatred and brutality that characterized combat on the Eastern front, tends to obscure that Germany and the Soviet Union had cooperated militarily for nearly two decades before the Nazi invasion in 1941. Ian Johnson, of Notre Dame University and a former Clements Center fellow, discusses this cooperation in this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, as detailed in his book, Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War. Johnson lays out the ways in which these two rogue states helped each other to develop the militaries that ultimately engaged in some of the most desperate and deadly combat of World War II.  This talk was given at the

In last week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we heard from Professor Jane Vaynman how emerging technologies may influence the future of arms control. In this week's episode, we hear from Tim Morrison, currently of the Hudson Institute and formerly a deputy advisor to the president for national security in the Trump administration, how arms control is influenced by different positions staked out by the major U.S. political parties. Morrison focuses particularly on negotiations surrounding the extension of the new START treaty between the United States and Russia, and also discusses the role of China, a growing nuclear power with whom the United States does not have any bilateral nuclear arms control agreements. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by the Clements Center.   Note: Mr. Morrison is employed by Boeing, which competes for U.S. missile defense contracts. In this talk, he was speaking in his capacity as a Hudson Institute fellow, and not as a Boeing employee.  

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Jane Vaynman, author of "Better Monitoring and Better Spying: The Impact of Emerging Technology on Arms Control," which appears in Vol. 4/Iss. 4 of the Texas National Security Review, a special issue dedicated to the memory and legacy of Janne Nolan. Vaynman explores how advances in the technology of drones, small satellites, artificial intelligence, and additive manufacturing may impact the future of arms control agreements and verification.  This article was the winner of the Janne Nolan prize competition, sponsored by the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies as part of the Future Strategy Forum. 

The People's Republic of China has risen over the past two decades to become the world's largest economy, when measured by purchasing power parity. As Chinese global economic interests and influence have expanded so, too, has the size and capability of the Chinese military. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Thomas Shugart, adjunct senior fellow with the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, discusses the implications of growing Chinese military power. Shugart frames his discussion in terms of what he calls the "Malacca Dilemma": Since much of Chinese trade and almost all Chinese energy imports must flow through strategic chokepoints controlled by the U.S. Navy or its allies and partners, Chinese leaders want to be able to protect their interests in these vital regions. But the same capabilities that allow them to protect their trading interests also allow them to threaten, intimidate, and coerce other regional countries, and may give Chinese communist leaders the tools needed

While most people think of North Korea today as an isolated pariah state, the "hermit kingdom" exercised significant influence among Third World nations during the Cold War. North Korean leader Kim Il Sung sent advisors to assist African liberation movements, trained anti-imperialist guerrilla fighters, and completed building projects in developing countries. State-run media coverage of events in the Third World shaped the worldview of many North Koreans and helped them imagine a unified global anti-imperialist front with North Korea at the vanguard. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Benjamin Young of Virginia Commonwealth University discusses these developments, as detailed in his book, Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World. This talk was sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative, former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Competition. Colby makes the case for a U.S. defense strategy focused on preventing Chinese hegemony in Asia by denying the Chinese the ability to achieve faits d'accompli--completed acts that violate the security and sovereignty of American's allies and partners in Asia, thereby threatening the defensive perimeter critical to protecting American interests.  Colby's was the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, and his work continues to influence the formulation of strategy today. This event was hosted at the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center.

With the release of the Pandora Papers, news reports are filled with stories derived from computer files once thought to be hidden from public scrutiny.  While  the source of the Pandora Papers leak isn't yet known, the pattern of leaked computer files shaping international relations has become increasingly common as information migrates to "the cloud." In addition to the Pandora Papers, the release of the Panama Papers revealed banking secrets of many international leaders, frequently suggesting involvement in activities they would have preferred not be made public.  James Shires discussed the political role of "hack and leak" operations, many of which involve cloud-based data, in his article in Vol. 3/Iss. 4 of Texas National Security Review (our special issue on cyber competition). In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Christina Morillo, a cyber security expert with substantial experience in the private sector, discusses the nuts and bolts of cloud security. While the discussion is a bit more techn