Off The Record With Paul Hodes

Painful as it is for Democrats (like us at the Beyond Politics podcast) to say, there's no denying that Donald Trump's economic pitch is working, especially among working-class voters. Despite significant backlash from non-partisan experts and economists, Trump is tied or ahead of Kamala Harris on the issue that voters say is most important to them. Why? And is there something Trump is saying that we should all be paying more attention to. Matt welcomes back Newsweek Opinion Editor Batya Ungar-Sargon to talk about what she sees in Trump's economic message, why she ran Trump's plan and Matt's critique of it back-to-back, and where she finds Kamala Harris hitting the right notes. ***For those wanting to see the draft piece Matt discussed on Friday on the most intriguing questions coming out of the VP debate, check out this link to his Patreon page (patrons always welcome!)*** 00:00 Introduction and Tough Question 01:38 Newsweek's Editorial Decision 03:27 Promoting Diverse Opinions 06:48 Debating Trump's Econ

The Fallout from the VP Debate: Implications for 2024 and Beyond. The big VP debate may not significantly affect the 2024 election, but it raises critical questions for American politics. Here's a quick look at the top5 big questions for the future coming out of the debate 00:00 Introduction: The Impact of the VP Debate 03:30 Trump's Mental Triggers: A Potential Downfall 04:52 Vance's Strategic Positioning in the Republican Party 06:14 The Double-Edged Sword of Vance's Success 07:22 Democrats' Rediscovery of a Powerful Issue 08:51 A New Era for Debates and Political Content? 11:32 Conclusion: Final Thoughts and Stakes

Decoding the 2024 VP Debate: Key Takeaways and Insights: Matt, Paul, and Alicia discuss the significant moments and lessons from the 2024 vice presidential debate. There is a lot going on under the surface, and even if the debate didn't move the needle that much in 2024, there's a lot to unpack about the future of the Republican Party, Trump's brain, and how we consume information in America. 00:56 Top Takeaways from the VP Debate 04:30 Analyzing JD Vance's Debate Tactics 09:16 Voter Perceptions and Poll Analysis 13:51 Engaging with Trump's Economic Policies 18:43 JD Vance's Opportunism and Future Implications 20:56 The Debate's Key Non-Answer 24:13 The MAGA Movement and Republican Party Dynamics 27:11 The Role of Expertise in Politics 32:23 Media's Role in Shaping Debate Narratives 37:09 Human Moments in Political Debates 41:59 The Future of Political Debates

Is the Presidential Race Over? Examining the Impact of the Mark Robinson Scandal: If Trump loses North Carolina, he has almost no chance at the presidency. Will the scandal be enough to end things? Also: the indictment of New York City Mayor Eric Adams and the extensive history of corruption in New York politics; the huge strategic decision Democrats must make in the fight for the Senate; and, is there a 'war on pets in American politics? 00:20 The Mark Robinson Scandal 01:20 Impact on Trump's Campaign 03:57 Republican and Democratic Strategies 15:00 Eric Adams Indictment 21:49 Analyzing the 2024 Senate Races 23:57 Strategizing Democratic Resources 32:36 Republican Controversies and Racism 38:57 The War on Pets

What would Trump's actual policy plan be if he got back into office? We can tell an awful lot from what he tried to do the first time, and most of it came at the expense of less wealthy Americans. Bob Greenstein, founder of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, joins us to discuss the far-reaching implications of Donald Trump's budget proposals during his presidency. 00:00 Introduction: The Hidden Details 03:13 Trump's Budget Proposals: A Deep Dive 20:29 The War on Poverty: Progress and Challenges 25:09 The Tariff Debate: Understanding the Impact 33:44 Future of the Republican Party 34:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Alicia's Fiery Rebuke and Trump's Scandalous Rhetoric: Unpacking the Fallout Matt, Paul, and Alicia dive into the aftermath of Donald Trump's racist claims about Haitian immigrants. Alicia passionately criticizes Trump's loyal followers and the consequences of their actions on communities like Springfield, Ohio. The discussion also explores the broader issue of heated political rhetoric from both sides, the implications of Trump's radical policy proposals, and recent polling trends in the presidential race. And finally, should this new fish speciesbe called...the Trump fish? 00:59 Trump's Racist Rhetoric and Real-World Consequences 02:53 Political Reactions and JD Vance's Role 05:07 The Broader Impact on Politics and Society 11:18 Debate on Heated Rhetoric from Both Sides 18:53 Alicia's Fiery Response 25:08 Trump's Economic Plan: A Disaster in the Making 26:12 Historical Lessons: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 26:52 The Real Impact of Tariffs on American Consumers 27:39 Poli

PART TWO OF TWO-PART MINI SERIES FINALE. As Kamala Harris rises in the polls following her crushing performance over Donald Trump in their debate, we look at the key moments and the hidden psychological strategies that led to the rout. This is the final episode of 'The War to Win Minds' miniseries, and Matt Robison and psychologist Lauren Goldstein run down a dizzying array of mental tactics that were on display and that we will continue to see in the 2024 campaign, including maybe the most important lesson from persuasion psychology--knowing what type of persuasion you are trying to do. 01:06 Overview of Persuasion Techniques 02:31 Kamala Harris' Debate Strategy 05:59 Trump's Response and Analysis 08:40 Psychological Warfare in Debates 22:04 Closing Statements and Final Thoughts 28:08 Conclusion and Farewell

PART ONE OF TWO PART MINI SERIES FINALE. We dive into the explosive psychological strategies behind the Kamala Harris -Donald Trump presidential debate. In this episode of 'The War to Win Minds' series, Matt Robison and psychologist Lauren Goldstein break down the mental tactics used to sway voters and what Harris did to break Trump's brain. Discover how Harris dismantled Trump's arguments and left him floundering by employing clever, counterintuitive methods. 01:50 Psychological Insights into Debates 03:34 Analyzing Kamala Harris's Debate Tactics 05:17 The Impact of Presidential Debates 08:36 Persuasion Principles in Action 17:03 Trump's Tactics and Harris's Response 20:16 The Power of Storytelling and Emotional Appeal 23:45 Harris's Strategy to Undermine Trump 27:58 Conclusion and Key Takeaways

In this quick reaction show, Matt, Paul, and Alicia dive into the aftermath of the recent debate, discussing who won, who lost, and why both parties should maybe feel frustrated. Kamala Harris is broadly considered the winner against Donald Trump but how much will it matter? And will Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris matter even more? 00:54 Who Won the Debate? 03:23 Debate's Impact and Media Critique 06:15 Republican and Democratic Reactions 11:23 Missed Opportunities 17:19 The Flaws of Presidential Debates 21:18 Debate Moderators and Fact-Checking 28:29 Trump's Dangerous Rhetoric and Lies

In episode 3 of our mini series 'The War to Win Minds,' hosts Matt Robison and Lauren Goldstein delve into the concept of social proof, its influence on political campaigns, and why it's Donald Trump's not so secret weapon in the 2024 campaign. 00:32 The Power of Social Proof 03:21 The Reagan-Mondale Debate Experiment 06:35 The Elevator Experiment 07:50 Asch's Social Conformity Experiment 10:30 Social Proof in Political Campaigns 14:12 Trump's Use of Social Proof 15:32 The Double-Edged Sword of Social Proof 24:06 Polling Data and Social Proof 26:02 Conclusion: Recognizing Social Proof Techniques

Is the Kamala-mentum waning? It's a question that was raised in Politico and that's being pushed by the Republican side, especially the Trump campaign. We have some data and some insights from where the campaigns are spending their money. Also, we ask why would Kamala Harris go to New Hampshire? The unfolding legal situations for hunter Biden and Donald Trump, both in court today. And a cute animal story that goes in a disturbing direction.

ABC Legal Analyst Kim Wehle explains how the Supreme Court's decision granting immunity to US Presidents is way more far-reaching that it appears. When paired with the "pardon power," Presidents now wield a devastating one-two punch of power. Wehle is the author of a fascinating new book on the history and law of the pardon, and why Americans need to understand just how dangerous this power has become. Also: a look at the current legal situations involving Donald Trump, Jack Smith's refiling of the election interference case, and Judge Aileen Cannon's dismissal of the classified documents case. 01:34 Jack Smith's Election Interference Case 05:38 Aileen Cannon and the Classified Documents Case 09:09 The Supreme Court's Role and Bias 20:58 The History and Importance of Pardon Power 26:23 Potential Reforms and Fixes 29:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Episode Two of The War to Win Minds: The Hidden Psychology of Political Persuasion. Matt Robison and Dr. Lauren Goldstein dive deep into the liking principle and break down campaign ads to show how politicians like Kamala Harris use similarities, compliments, attractiveness, and associations shape to change voters' minds and shape public opinion. Learn strategies used by campaigns to make their candidates more likable in ads from Barack Obama, Raphael Warnock, and Kamala Harris. 00:37 The Cartoon That Explains Opinion Formation 02:52 The Psychology Behind Likability 05:13 The Halo Effect and Attractiveness 08:53 Similarity and Its Challenges 13:39 The Power of Compliments 16:19 Association and Its Impact 19:21 Kamala Harris's Fearless Ad 24:57 Conclusion and Preview of Next Episode

Matt, Paul, and Alicia discuss Donald Trump's unhinged rant on Truth Social plus the recent Arlington National Cemetery incident, which has pushed Trump to new levels of insanity. The panel explores what triggered Trump's meltdown: Jack Smith's refiled case against him. They also question why, despite Trump's outrageous behavior, the race remains a 50/50 toss-up. Plus, the 10-year anniversary of 'Tan Suit Gate' involving former President Barack Obama. 00:00 Introduction: Trump's Unhinged Rant 01:07 Analyzing Trump's Truth Social Meltdown 03:58 The Normalization of Trump's Behavior 06:09 Misogyny and Disrespect Towards Women 09:11 Arlington National Cemetery Incident 18:06 Jack Smith's Indictment and Trump's Reaction 23:39 Why is This Still a 50-50 Race? 33:04 Tansuitgate Anniversary

***Don't forget to check out our mini-series on the hidden psychology of political campaigns on ⁠YouTube⁠ or ⁠Spotify⁠.*** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDbNEHJ_pV4 RFK Jr.'s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race and his subsequent endorsement of Donald Trump would, until very recently, have been viewed as a watershed. But when it finally went down late last week, it barely made waves. Will it matter? 02:59 RFK Jr.'s Support Base and Its Implications 09:42 Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy 17:21 Trump's Response and Campaign Strategy 20:50 Psychological Techniques in Campaigns 24:31 Trump's Campaign Challenges 29:38 Potential October Surprise

Episode One of The War to Win Minds: The Hidden Psychology of Political Persuasion. A limited series where PhD psychologist Lauren Goldstein and veteran campaign manager Matt Robison break down political ads to show the science behind how political campaigns fight and win the battle for our brains. In this episode: how one brilliant Kamala Harris ad explains the two pathways into our minds, and which one really works to win elections. *** WATCH ON YOUTUBE at https://youtu.be/ZDbNEHJ_pV4?si=9f4lHui08g0WG3je *** 00:00 Introduction: The Battle for Minds 1:03 Central vs. Peripheral Routes 4:26 The Central Route Explained 9:25 The Peripheral Route Explained 11:56 Analyzing Effective Political Ads 14:45 Kamala Harris's Ad Breakdown 21:52 Polling Insights and Strategy 25:00 Key Takeaways and Conclusion

What do Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party need to do in the final stretch of the campaign to secure a win against Donald Trump? Paul, Matt, and Alicia take stock of where we are and where we need to get to. They also break down Harris' acceptance speech and the DNC's overall performance, the importance of upcoming debates, and the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. 00:55 Analyzing Kamala Harris's Acceptance Speech 01:35 Critique of the Democratic Convention 04:54 Discussion on Political Reporting and Media 13:31 Upcoming Mini-Series 17:38 Current State of the Campaign 23:25 Debate Expectations and Strategies 27:03 The Role of Swing States 32:05 Kamala Harris's Debate Tactics 37:07 Election Polls and Predictions 40:45 The Grammar Debate

Was last night's set of Democratic Convention speeches a game changer for Dems? Paul, Alicia and Matt think it quite possibly was, and got into such a heated discussion about it over text that they decided to take it right to the podcast. We cover why Doug Emhoff hit a grand slam, what Michelle did that worked so well, and why Barack Obama's speech marked a critical shift in Kamala's strategy. 00:57 Reactions to Obama's Speech 04:11 Alicia's Take on Dougie's Speech 05:23 Obama's Subtle Jabs and Nitpicks 08:54 Generational Differences and Grace 15:35 Obama's Inflection Point in the Campaign 19:51 Debating Obama's Legacy 30:05 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

Today, an unvarnished and unbiased deep dive into the numbers and the scenarios for the 2024 election with former executive director of the Republican Party in Florida, Jamie Miller. We ask what are the best strategies and likeliest potential outcomes for the presidential race as well as down-ballot races? And we try to step outside either party's partisan perspective to see where the opportunities and pitfalls are. 00:00 Introduction: Beyond Politics with Matt Robinson 00:02 Stepping Outside the Echo Chamber 00:34 Interview with Jamie Miller: A Reasonable Perspective 01:15 Convention Insights: Kamala Harris and the Final Stretch 01:44 Historical Speeches and Convention Experiences 02:28 Echo Chamber vs. TV Land: Communication Differences 02:54 Analyzing the Republican Convention 05:20 Paths to Victory: Harris vs. Trump 05:47 Polling Momentum and Strategic Predictions 08:22 Impact of Down-Ballot Races 18:41 Budgeting and Campaign Strategies 19:41 The Importance of Key States 33:27 Debate Impact and State

With polling data showing Kamala Harris bursting into the lead ahead of Donald Trump, what do they need to do at the upcoming conversation to keep the momentum going and propel them into November. Also, why are voters suddenly rating Harris ahead of Trump on the economy? Also, the controversy surrounding Olympic gymnast Jordan Childs and the governing body's decision to take away her medal. 01:43 Polling and Kamala's Momentum 05:27 Communication Tips for Dems 08:58 Balancing Policy and Values 13:50 Convention Entertainment 18:53 Warming Up the Crowd for Barack 21:27 Economic Plans and Voter Sentiments 23:49 Poll Results and Voter Trust 25:09 Emotional Resonance in Politics 33:46 Olympic Gymnastics Controversy