Stuff That Interests Me

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comNB I have further thoughts on the Semler Scientific deal (NASDAQ:SMLR) which you can read at the end of today’s piece.It’s hard, nigh impossible to call the top in a bull market.If you can get out within 10% of the top, you have done very well. Most don’t.We have been waiting a long time, but we are in a bull market now: not just for gold, but for silver, platinum and the companies that mine these precious metals.It feels very frothy.But is this just a rush before an interim top early in a secular bull market?Or are we nearing the top?Where are we in the cycle now? Which innings of nine, to use the baseball analogy?The other day I suggested we were in innings six - for gold at least. I got a lot of stick for saying that, which probably means I’m right.But I put some polls up on my various WhatsApp chats and the general consensus was 6 for the metal, 3 for the miners.I also have this poll running on X, so you can see current c

Good Sunday to you,I have a short announcement today, one I’m very excited about, as this week’s thought piece.Please feel free to comment, share, or get in touch if it sparks your interest.Thank you for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby.Until next time,DominicHere, ICYMI, is the week’s commentary: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBefore we begin today’s piece, let me flag this video I made based on my recent article about Triffin’s Dilemma. 13 mins long and hopefully worth the effort. Might be the most important thing you watch this week.With all the narratives that come with a gold bull market - and also a bitcoin bull market - that we're heading to some kind of money reset, the dollar or the pound is going to collapse, we are going to end up on a gold or bitcoin standard and so on - you have an end goal. The bull market will continue until we reach that eventuality.However, I doubt very much we go back to a gold standard. Yes, gold's role as reserve asset increases, ditto bitcoin, but I don't see a return to the gold standards of the 19th or 20th century. Much more likely is a Hayekian world of competing currencies.The 20th century gold standards were bogus anyway - which is why they failed. There was no gold in circulation. Americans weren't allowe

I'm not an Angela Rayner fan. Not for a second. I think she is a button-pushing hypocrite who is the living embodiment of the socialists George Orwell described in Animal Farm. But I also rather suspect she is not nearly as monstrous as she is depicted by those on the other side of the political argument. I also don't think we have seen the last of her and she'll be back again within 18 months.However, I do not buy this narrative that she took bad advice. She's no different to the rest of us. She doesn't like paying tax. She wants to minimize what she has to pay.I've taken advice many times on all matter of subjects. We all have. Often I've been given advice I didn't want to hear - and as a result I've chosen to ignore it. Instead, I've listened to the advice that was what I wanted to hear, even if it was bad.Trying to fob this off on bad advice is both disingenuous and a deferral of responsibility.We all know what is or isn't going to be our main home. It's only when confronted with the option of paying £70,

The Secret History of Gold comes out this week. Here for your viewing pleasure is a fim about gold based on the first chapter.“Gold will be slave or master”HoraceIn 2021, a metal detectorist with the eyebrow-raising name of Ole Ginnerup Schytz dug up a hoard of Viking gold in a field in Denmark. The gold was just as it was when it was buried 1,500 years before, if a little dirtier. The same goes for the jewellery unearthed at the Varna Necropolis in Bulgaria in 1972. The beads, bracelets, rings and necklaces are as good as when they were buried 6,700 years ago.In the Egyptian Museum in Cairo, there is a golden tooth bridge — a gold wire used to bind teeth and dental implants — made over 4,000 years ago. It could go in your mouth today.No other substance is as long-lasting as gold — not diamonds, not tungsten carbide, not boron nitride. Gold does not corrode; it does not tarnish or decay; it does not break down over time. This sets it apart from every other substance. Iron rusts, wood rots, silver tarnishes. G

Your mid-week commentary is a day early this week because I am putting out a special film tomorrow all about everyone’s favourite metal. Watch your inboxes.There is a shift of enormously significant proportions taking place. In magnitude it will prove as significant as Bretton Woods in 1944, when the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency, and the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the US abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard.This shift is going to shape the global financial landscape over the next few years. You need to understand what is happening, so that you can position yourself and your family.You may even be able to profit handsomely from the transition.Today we explain US dollar policy: what is going on and, more importantly, where it is all going.Ready? Here goes.The Manufacturing Imperative and The Curse of the Reserve CurrencyAmerica wants to bring manufacturing back on shore. We all know this. US President Donald Trump has said it repeatedly, his VP JD Vance has said it, and so has h

NB Sundays, as ever, are for thought pieces, lately all about gold as my book on that subject is about to come out. Midweek remains for markets We are now into launch week, so lots to promote: Secret History of Gold FeverThis week I’ve been in interview mode* Above we have me telling Ian Collins on Talk TV how rubbish the government is. * Here is me talking to Tom Winnifrith* Here James Delingpole.I have been working on a short film as well, which I hope to have ready for tomorrow.The book also had its first review - in the Telegraph.Here is what people have said so far“A fabulous, fascinating, fantastical tale” Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works”It doesn’t just tell you about gold – it makes you feel its weight through history. It’s just so interesting," Toby Young, Spectator”Written with both insight and Dominic’s signature humour, this is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the lengths human beings will go to for the promise of riches,” Rory Sutherland, author of Alchemy.“This del

NB I will put out my thoughts on the Comstock Inc (LODE.NYSE) earnings call in my mid-week commentary. A reminder: Sundays are for thought pieces, currently around gold as my book on that subject is about to come out. Midweek is for market stuff.“I'm Henry the Eighth, I am!Henry the Eighth, I am, I am!”Fred Murray and R. P. WestonHistory has given Henry VIII mixed reviews. Never mind the wife-killing, he was the king who boldly stood up to papal supremacy, paving the way for freedom, Reformation and the buccaneering spirit which marked the Tudor age. That said, I doubt Henry knew at the time what the long-term consequences of his papal stand-off would be.His Great Debasement, however, must be one of the greatest inflationary thefts by a ruler on their people in British history. Even William Pitt pales in comparison. Never speak ill of the dead and all that, but extravagant (and not in a good way), power-mad, and hypocritical are all adjectives that spring to mind about Henry VIII. Historian Simon Sebag Montef

NB To help you visualise: a tonne of gold would be about the size of a beachball, albeit one you couldn’t lift, or a medium-sized suitcase. If it were a cube, it would have sides just under 15 inches/37.5 centimetres."The only thing that really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril."Winston ChurchillNow that France had fallen, it was time for Operation Sea Lion: Germany's invasion of Britain. It would start with air and naval attacks to soften British defences before an amphibious assault. The Battle of Britain was about to begin.Britain had 501 tonnes of gold stored overseas, more than half of which was in Canada—over 10,000 bars. (Head of the Bank of England, Montagu Norman, had been buying Canadian mine production steadily through the 1930s.) But in the vaults of the Bank of England, it had some 1,100 tonnes of gold stored, along with another 800 tonnes stored for other nations. They could not let Adolf Hitler have it.Safety lay on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, but German U-boats were

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThe UK Financial Conduct Authority has announced that it is loosening its anti-bitcoin stance. From October 8th retail UK investors will now be able to buy bitcoin ETFs.Finally.The ban came in with bitcoin at $5,000. Today it's $115,000. That’s $110,000/coin UK investors have been protected from. Great job guys. Where will it be on October 8th? Who knows.Does this announcement mark the top of the market for bitcoin? There would be a poetic irony if it did, but it won't. Bitcoin is so much bigger than the FCA.At present, it does not even look like a case of buy the rumour, sell the news. Bitcoin has actually sold off a few percent since the announcement.But this change in tack is going to have a huge impact. It's about a lot more than British retail investors. It's global.It's going to have an impact on the bitcoin treasury companies around the world, and it's going to have an impact on the bitcoin price itself.Here’s why.We’l

“They will never see their gold again, just as they do not see their own ears.”Josef StalinGold’s strength is that its value exists in and of itself. It’s nobody else’s liability. Unlike money in the bank or a bond, it carries no promise from a third party, and its value is not dependent on the creditworthiness of any issuer or guarantor. Hand it to someone else and its value is transferred. It is a “bearer” asset, effectively owned by whoever has possession of it. For this reason gold has been the target of many a heist. Quickly resmelt it, and its provenance is very hard to prove.So there is one obvious problem with gold: that is keeping it safe. It’s all very well having a pot of gold, but if somebody comes along and takes it from you, as Alexander did from the Persians, or the Conquistadors from the Incas, then you’re left with nothing at all.When the Spanish Civil War broke out in 1936, the Soviet Union, under Joseph Stalin, supported the Spanish Republican government. The Nazis supported their opponents

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThe idea behind Dolce Far Niente was to create a portfolio of low-risk investments for today’s market conditions, that you can buy and, pretty much, forget about. You don’t have to keep checking prices every day. Hence “Dolce Far Niente” - “the sweetness of doing nothing.” No worries would be the Australian translation.Asset allocation is WAY more important than individual stock-picking. I could pick the best biotech company in the world, but if biotech is in a bear market, I almost needn’t bother. I’m better off out of the sector. But similarly, if a sector is in a full-on bull market, even pigs fly.The starting point for the portfolio, which we began on October 1, 2023, was as follows.* Gold: 15%* Bitcoin: 5%* Special situations: 10% (the ”fun” part of the portfolio, for example some of the smallcaps I write about on here)* Uranium: 5% (reduced to 2.5% as things got frothy)* Oil and Gas: 10%* Bonds and Wealth Preservation:

I’m delighted to announce my new book, The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life. It tells the epic tale of humanity’s oldest and most treasured currency – from its explosive cosmic origins to its role in the power games of modern geopolitics.Watch the unboxing above

This week I was listening to Merryn Talks Money. My old boss and great friend, Merryn Somerset Webb, was discussing portfolio allocation - which assets should make up the 40 in a 60:40 bond-to-equity portfolio - with Nataliia Lipikhana, executive director at JP Morgan . Merryn asked if bitcoin should be one of the assets to include, alongside gold. Lipikhana, who, until then, had spoken widely, fluently and knowledgeably about a range of subjects, suddenly stonewalled.“We don’t cover it so we can’t talk about it,” she said.Awkward pause.Merryn laughs. “At all?”“No,” says Lipikhana.Another pause.“Ok,” says Merryn. “Totally understand,” and she changed the subject.This is a symptom of something much bigger that has been at play throughout the institutional world, and not just in the UK, since the emergence of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.They’ve been shadowbanned.We know of course about the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, how its regulations went against the pronouncements of various Chancellors, and

(I am sending this week’s commentary early this week due to travel)Dear Chancellor,Me again.I am the author of Bitcoin: The Future of Money? (2014), generally agreed to the first book on bitcoin from a recognised publisher.I write with regard to the proposed sale of the UK’s bitcoin. Since bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 - invented in reaction to the loose monetary policies of the Global Financial Crisis - bank bail outs, quantitative easing, zero interest policies etc - and the economic injustices they created, the protocol has grown from nothing to a market cap above $2 trillion. A whole new economy has emerged around the technology where none previously existed, providing countless opportunities for individuals, entrepreneurs and nations alike.Initially the domain of a few coders, it is now finding mass adoption at the corporate and even national level. The US is recognizing the digital asset’s importance, as it introduces its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, while China, according to estimates, holds 190

At Freedom Fest 2025 last month, I joined a very sensible panel - grown up people saying intelligent things - in a gold vs bitcoin debate, from which I came way thinking, “Oh, that was quite good”. It has just been released, so I thought I would share it for your Sunday thought piece.As always if you enjoy the discussion, please like it and share. It he… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I wanted to take a look at gold today.I’m going to dust off my powers of divination — or as they call it in the City, technical analysis - and see if we can figure out where it is going next.As things got frothy back in April, I argued that the market was probably due a breather. The summer is usually gold’s weakest season. Why this should be I don’t know, but it is. You’ll often find it makes a low in May or June, then re-tests that low in July or August, then things pick up in the autumn or fall, as our more literal cousins call it. In any case, I’m pleased to report that gold has basically range-traded, or consolidated, since the frothy days of April, between $3,500 and $3,100. The $3,000 level has more than held, which makes me wonder if we shall ever see gold with a $2,000 handle ever again. Unless there is a 2008 or Covid-style panic, I rather doubt we will.Meanwhile, the RSI (see the bottom panel below) has come off, meaning the heat has come out of the market, which is good.Since the US confiscation o

NB Somebody on social media is impersonating me again, sliding in to DMs, soliciting investment. Please ignore, block, report etc. Here they are on Substack.Right, here we go.Dear Chancellor Reeves“Revenue cannot be derived unless the land is productive.”— Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth caliphI hope you have a moment to consider what I have to say.My name is Dominic Frisby. Among other things, I am the author of a well-received book on the history of taxation, Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future.I am writing to you about Stamp Duty — a tax that is causing stagnation, where you need growth.At present, if I wish to buy a house, I must first sell other assets to fund the purchase. This incurs capital gains tax. Then, on buying the property, I face another sizeable tax in the form of Stamp Duty. So I am taxed twice on the same money.The alternative is simply to stay put and do nothing, thereby paying no tax at all. Unsurprisingly, this is what most people do, which is why turnover

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comMany thanks for completing my weekend polls (here they are if you missed them: paying subscribers / non-paying). Your answers were extremely useful: roughly the right amount of content, stick with the audio, the balance of investment ideas and other stuff is about right, and the price too is about right (interestingly, paying subscribers thought that, non-paying less so — that put a smile on my face). Also: keep writing about what I know.You’re a bit more equivocal about the video content. There are more gold than bitcoin bugs in the readership, with a healthy number are in the “own both” camp.And so many of you joined my Comedy Substack, it became one of Substack Humor’s fastest movers. Yippee. Thank you!Today I am going to tell you about my seven largest investment positions.Take note: the asset allocation I advocate is the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. This is 15% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, and we have a large allocation to gl

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comOh, my goodness me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen volatility like it.We have a huge speculative bubble on our hands, and it’s popping.What’s more, this bubble is full of chancers, charlatans and chief executive officers.The Mail has got onto the story. That is not a good sign. If I told you ten days ago that the price of a share you just bought would rise from 6p to 40p in a week, you’d be pretty happy.Then again, if I told you on Monday that something you owned was going to drop by 60% the following day, you’d be pretty unhappy.That’s what happened with the UK-listed bitcoin treasury companies.Nobody said it would be easy.Today we are going to try and make some sense of what is going on. We have a comprehensive list of all the UK companies jumping on this nutty bandwagon. And, most importantly, we consider what to do next.Let’s start with a timely reminder: owning a speculative bitcoin treasury company is not the same as own