Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Neal Dwane, global strategist at Allianze Global Investments, said he believes current market optimism over trade issues with China may be misplaced, noting that the excessive optimism could bring an end to recent relief rallies, and he noted that the bigger potential for trouble lies in a potential global debt crisis where central banks have taken on so much debt that they can't buy more, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to raise rates without tanking the market and the economy. Also on the show, tax litigator Dan Pilla discusses why IRS refunds are down so far this year and if that's a bad sign, we rebroadcast a recent chat with Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, and Eric Ervin of Blockforce Capital talks dividend stocks in the Market Call.

Bill Nygren, legendary manager of the Oakmark Fund, discussed how the disappointment of the market late in 2018 actually was a great time for investors like him who want to buy businesses with solid long-term prospects at reasonable prices. With prices falling but earnings staying high, Nygren said investors could take advantage of the market becoming disconnected from its fundamentals. Currently, he likes financial stocks, consumer durables like automotive and industrial companies, and he's sour on supposedly safer investments like utilities, which he says are fully valued. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com had volatility on his mind with the ETF of the Week Economy, and David Brown of Sabrient Systems talked about his firm's latest Baker's Dozen of stocks in the Market Call

Jeff Weniger, director of asset allocation at WisdomTree Asset Management, said that investors should be looking beyond trade wars and Brexit to what's really going to move markets, and noted that he expects emerging markets to outperform and Europe to underperform once the headlines get past current concerns. Also on the show, Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss -- and disagree on -- the parts of the market they like and worry about now. Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com looks at a survey which shows more debt problems for average Americans, and Mark Salzinger of The No-Load Fund Investor talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Scott Colyer, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management, has long advocated that investors avoid fighting the Fed, but right now he suggested that they continue riding earnings trends higher, even as they become wary of a building recession. Colyer noted that investors should be looking to miss a recession, which he sees coming but potentially not for a year or more. Also on the show, aauthor Bart McDonough discusses cyber security and how consumers can better protect themselves, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial, said the housing market is under-built and the lack of inventory has made the market overly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, a trend he expects to continue at least through the end of the current rate-hike cycle. Also on the show, Matt Schultz discusses the latest survey from CompareCards.com, David Trainer puts two big-name stocks in the Danger Zone, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Capital Management has the Market Call.

Ron Sanchez of Fiduciary Trust Co. International said that investors have gotten past the confidence-shaking drop of December, but they should be cautious now because stories about global growth, interest rates and international trade events will go a long way to determining whether the market can continue climbing this year. Also on the show, Michael Gayed of Pension Partners said that the market's technicals also should put investors into wait-and-see mode, as they suggest that stocks are overbought and awaiting a catalyst before a downturn. Thomas Winmill of the Midas Fund talked about gold and precious metals investing -- also fitting into the theme of uncertain times -- and Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discussed a recent survey which showed that 74 million Americans have more in credit-card debt than in emergency savings.

Brian Singer, head of the dynamic allocation strategies team at  William Blair  Co., said that fundamentals are going to re-assert themselves on asset prices, noting that when central banks around the world are tightening, value tends to be in favor. Singer also said that emerging markets are perhaps the best value and have the most potential return right now, and urged investors to consider emerging-markets equity. That was directly on point with the ETF of the Week, where Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picked a specialized emerging-markets fund  -- the XSOE -- because it is trending now. Also on the show, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments discussed JP Morgan's plan to introduce its own cryptocurrency, and George Putnam III of The Turnaround Letter talked stocks in the Market Call. 

David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, said he does not like the looks of China and emerging markets, prefers small-cap domestic stocks and cyclical sectors like industrials and financials as he sees a market with the potential to add a few more percentage points to the upside over the rest of the year. Unlike most recent Big Interview guests, Goerz still sees the Fed raising rates three times this year. Also on the show, Richard Lewis and Jeremiah Riethmiller of HighTower Advisors discuss connecting with clients through social media, Chuck talks about President Trump's contention that the market would have lost nearly half its value if the opposition had been elected in 2016, and Dan Brady of Trendrating.com talks stocks in the Market Call.

James Hickey, chief investment strategist at H.D. Vest Financial Services said that the strong gains realized by the market in January are likely to be what investors experience for the year. While anticipating a flat market for the rest of 2019, Hickey said he does expect some volatility to make things look better or worse throughout, and he ntoed that he is tilting his portfolios toward small-cap stocks, and avoiding Europe and cutting back on emerging markets investments. Also on the show, a rebroadcast of a recent interview with Brent Schutte from Northwestern Mutual, and the Market Call with Jim Lowell, editor of The Fidelity Investor and Fidelity Sector Investor newsletters.

Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, said in the Market Call that while he is nto expecting a bear market in short order, he does see trouble ahead for the domestic markets, noting that his metrics show large-cap stocks as being 84 percent overvalued. With that in mind, he expects 'bad things to happen' domestically, even as he finds some global valuations appealing. Also ont eh show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com discusses America's problem with car-loan delinquiencies, Trevor Neilson of i(x) Investments talks about a new type of social and impact investing, and David Trainer covers companies with misleading returns on invested capital in the Danger Zone.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon said in the Big Interview that between tariff problems and economic issues in Europe, investors must wait for the second half of the year for solid growth. That said, economic growth will be sufficient to avoid recession but not enough to satisfy investors who want to see more global expansion. Also, Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors suggested that investors should be long in stocks, while expecting a bear market to arrive in six to nine months, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel discussed large-cap growth investments in the Market Call.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that his rcession-probability model is showing a 20 percent chance of an economic downturn this year, but that investors should expect a recession in 2020 or '21, noting that while it should be a 'garden-variety recession,' the situation with the Fed could make any meltdown much worse. Also, economist Edward Goldberg of NYU said that American and China are coming to a truce -- and not a win or a loss -- in the trade wars, Tom Lydon looked at an emerging-markets ETF as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck answered an question from an audience member.

After a superior 2017 and a dismal 2018, the outlook for emerging markets stocks and bonds is changing again and Richard Lewis from the Nulman Group did not like the looks of those markets while his HighTower Advisors colleague Jeremiah Reithmiller of Sarian Strategic Partners was much more optimistic about the prospects for companies based in developing nations. Also on the show, author Larry Swedroe discusses his new book on a successful retirement, Coryanne Hicks of U.S. News and World Report discusses the latest battle in the ETF pricking wars, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Kagan, portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments, said that the United States economy -- unlike some around the world -- is looking strong right now; compared to relevant periods in history, he said Americans are likely to avoid a recession for several years. That said, he noted in the Market Call interview that he would be selling any stock that is not producing profits in these market conditions. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made a banking company his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discussed his site's latest survey and author Tanja Hester discussed her new book on retiring very early -- potentially decades ahead of retirement age -- and not running out of money.

David Dowden, portfolio manager at MacKay Municipal Managers, said he expects the Federal Reserve to do one more rate hike -- during the first half of the year, or earlier than many other observers expect -- but he said that the bond market holds a lot of challenges for investors, like an abundance of muni-bond options that are creating a buying opportunity while alos potentially creating value traps. Also on the show, Kelly Anne Smith of BankRate.com discussed how much money people expect to spend for Valentine's Day, Marc Schneider of Zebit.com discussed how his unique shopping site -- which charges no interest and no late fees on payments -- actually works, and David Trainer of New Constructs put a mutual fund in the 'Danger Zone.'

In his first appearance on the show in more than two years, Brian Yacktman of YCG Enhanced Fund discussed how enduring pricing power and industry leadership and innovation makes for stocks that investors that can deliver superior long-term results in all market conditions, and he singled out a few stocks that make the grade in the Market Call. Also on teh show, we rebroadcast a recent interview with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Dick Burns of the NHP Foundation discusses seniors' financial fears and Chuck takes a long lottery-filled journey through the weird financial news

Warren Pierson, senior portfolio manager at the Baird Funds, said the markets currently are re-calibrating after the December fall and the January rebound, getting used to more reasonable levels of growth in both earnings and gross domestic product. The result should be market that sustains a slow-but-steady positive course for 2019. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an emerging-markets bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck discusses how investors need both an iron will and iron stomach to ride out current market times, and Bernie Horn of the Polaris Global Value Fund has the Market Call. 

David Marcus of  Evermore Global Advisors said investors need to be pruning and enhancing their portfolio during times like these -- when markets are shifting and corporate fortunes are changing quickly -- to maintain a portfolio of investments they love, rather than settling just for things they like. Owning investments you love lets you stick with them through tough times in the market. Also on the show, Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discusses investors' flagging level of optimism, we rebroadcast a recent Collective Wisdom segment focused on market volatility and Chuck discusses what investors should remember about the reign of bond king Bill Gross, who just announced his impending retirement

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth management Co., said that while the market has plenty of reasons to get nervous, it also has plenty of impetus to move up throughout the year, largely due to strong underlying fundamentals. He also said that he expects emerging markets and large-cap domestic securities to outperform in the year ahead. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal is in a selling mood with his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses a recent survey covering how many credit-card customers expect to die with their debt still in place, and Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at Morningstar Inc

David Trainer of New Constructs put three stocks -- Landec Corp., Brooks Automation, and Host Hotels and Resorts -- in the Danger Zone noting that all three had misleading price-earnings ratios that could lead investors to think the stocks were rising in value when in fact he feels their true worth is collapsing. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses American's financial security, we rebroadcast a recent chat on the market with Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds has the Market Call.