Volatility Views

Volatility Review: The Trumpocalypse is fading. VIX cash is back below 14. VVIX = 87, back below 100. Russells Weekly Rundown: If a Trump Presidency is scary, why is VIX so low? VIX Options: A lighter volume week than last week - started strong, pushing 1M contracts on Tuesday, but then fell off. Total 3.88m (2.80m Calls, 1.08m Puts) Crude Oil: OIV = 48, elevated compared to recent weeks - spiked to 53 on Wednesday. Volatility Voicemail/Options #Question of the Week $TSLA ($182.50, down 3%, IV30:41, HV30:31) Straddle says $8.20 move (4.5%) by Friday close. How much will $TSLA actually move? 20% - In line: ($8-$8.50) 37% - Beat Straddle: > $8 23% - Less than Straddle: < $8 20% - Sick of #Musk / $TSLA Listener questions and comments: Question from Alex Devers - What does the future hold in terms of social media sentiment and volatility. Is there a social volatility index out there already? If not is this something the folks at CBOE are cooking up? Question from Avec - Has anyone studied the effect of selli

Volatility Review: The Trumpocalypse is here! What a week! VVIX: 102. So, about last night...Patient volatility seller ended up winning big. Volatility shorts cash in despite the shock U.S. election. Volume in non-U.S. trading hours set a new daily record. Russells Weekly Rundown: VIX Options - A crazy volume week! Mon - 1.05M, Tues - 1.05M, Weds - 1.03M, Thurs - 1.08M Total 7.08m (4.62m Calls, 2.46m Puts) Earnings Volatility: Walt Disney Company Nvidia Nordstrom Volatility Voicemail/Options #QuestionOfTheWeek $SPX Weds Weekly straddle says 2% move through election. How much will SPX / $SPY move through Weds 11/9? Over 3% - crazy move Between 2-3% - big move Between 1-2% - mild move Less thastockn 1% - meh Listener questions and comments: Question from Brian: Hi Mark, your shows are the best known to me. Congratulations on your success. I have a topic/question for Volatility Views. I am trying to get a sense of how viable XIV will be in the long term. Are there red flags for ETFs/ETNs that would indica

Volatility Views Election Special Part Two: Volatility After Dark The resurgence of Donald Trump in the U.S. election is weighing heavily on markets around the globe. We break down the historic action in VIX, Dow, SPX and more live on this special late-night episode of Volatility Views.

You want a Volatility Views looking at election volatility in real time? Well, Mark, Russell and the greasy meatball got together and did just that.  

Volatility Viewpoint: Today we have special guest David Hait, CEO of OptionMetrics. He discusses: What is OptionMetrics? An overview of the white paper on VIX Variation OptionMetrics recently released What are the key takeaways? The methodology for the study The upcoming OptionMetrics Research Conference Volatiltiy Review: VIX surging well north of the 20-handle. VVIX is up to 120. VIX Options heavy volume week: Mon - 397k Tues - 731k Weds - 602k Thurs - 882k Total 6.02m (4.52m Calls, 1.50m Puts) Russell's Weekly Rundown: November 9 VIX futures focus. You will NOT be able to capture (most) election returns with that expiration. SPX weeklies and event risk Volatility Voicemail/Options #QuestionOfTheWeek: Special #Earnings, #Election, #WorldSeries edition $FB ATM strd=$7.30 $VIX=17.20. Which outcome is most likely? $VIX > 20 before election $FB beats ATM Straddle @realDonaldTrump wins @Cubs win World Series Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating Last week: Mark L. - 16 Mark S. - 17.15 Andrew - 17.50 Bill L.

Volatility Review: Today we have on Bill Luby of VIX and More fame. VIX Cash: 15.36 VIX Options: Total 5.11m (3.92m Calls, 1.19m Puts) Strategy index offers cues to derivatives investors seeking to enhance potential yields. Volatility Voicemail/Options #QuestionOfTheWeek Is #Trumpocalypse done? Is $VIX already pricing in @HillaryClinton win? Where will $VIX close on election day? UNCHD (Between 12-14 ) Elevated (15-18) Spike (Over 18) Selloff (Below 12) Listener questions: Comment from Al Melvin - VIX is the best mathematical equation in history! Question from Andrew Simon - What would it take to get a VIX of 200? Is that even possible or does that mean the Earth would explode? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last Week: Mark L. - 13.75 Mark S. - 12.5 Russell - 13.3333 This Week: Mark L. - 16 Mark S. - 17.50 Bill - 15.43

VOLATILITY REVIEW VIX Cash - 13.34 Russells paper link: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/accounting--finance/Park-PriceDislocationandPriceDiscoveryintheSP500OptionsandV....pdf VIX Options Strong volume on Tues, 10/18: 780k, but light volume the rest of the week. Total 4.30m (3.24m Calls, 1.05m Puts) The VIX: Not so fearsome after all? - by David Hait http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/10/21/the-vix-not-so-fearsome-after-all/ VOLATILITY VOICEMAIL Question from Avery - I found the discussion and the "point" made by ThinkTankTrading extremely confusing. Is this really something to worry about or, as Mark suggested, is it really a distinction without a difference? VXX erodes predictably. Does it really matter if its is caused by roll yield or stampeding elephants? Question from Tom from NYC - Love the Vol Views. Been thinking about that 1x2 call vertical in VIX. Would flipping the script also work? So instead of selling 1 buying 2 calls you would BUY 1

Volatility Review: VIX cash/futures finally connect: we've been wondering for the past few weeks whether VIX cash would rally to the future or the future would drop to the cash. We finally have our answer. Oh, and VXX is NOT VIX. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Bill Chace: Hi Russ. What indicator do you use to help determine future movements of VIX? And how reliable are they? Question from Bobby: I've noticed moves in the currencies lately. Is this increased volatility good for premium sellers in currency options? Question from Vegan: Do you use VIX as a relative strength indicator vs. ES? What tends to lead the dance: S&P or VIX? Comment from Itzprav: VIX will be back to 11 next week - referring to headline "How high will the VIX get?" Comment from Highlander: Yes, it's only $46 Trillion backing mortgages & loans for hundreds of millions of people. It'll be fine. Question from LV87: Single name VIXes. What's up there? Can I actually buy Amazon VIX? Question/commen

Volatility Review featuring Mike Thompson, Portfolio Manager, Typhon Capital What is up with VIX term structure? How is Typhon Capital working with this contango? Hint: reverse mullet, AKA Tellum. Russell's Weekly Rundown CBOE Holdings reports September 2016 trading volume: Total ADV Up 25% from August 2016, 3% from a year ago. Highlights: September Index options traded at CBOE and C2 had an ADV of 1.8 million contracts, up 24 percent from August 2016. SPX options ADV of 1.1 million contracts up 26 percent from August 2016. New Study: CBOE and Fund Evaluation Group, LLC announced findings from a study of four CBOE strategy performance benchmark indexes designed to track the performance of positions in Russell 2000 (RUT) index options. VIX Cash: Back below 13 handle. When might we see #Trumpocalypse? How would a Cubs World Series victory impact the VIX? Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Comment from AlphaJack: Cool piece in Barrons about XIV. Reminded me of what you guys always talk about

Volatility Review: CBOE just concluded the Risk Management Conference in Europe. They will soon introduce the CBOE S&P 500 Smile Index. At the event, they released a new study of of four CBOE strategy performance benchmark indexes designed to track the performance of positions in Russell 2000 (RUT) index options, looking at various aspects of their performance over a 15-year period spanning 2001 through 2016. Russell gives a rundown of the new products coming your way, themes overheard and the event, and more. What else happened in the market this week? Deutsche Bank debacle. Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Weeklys and harvesting volatility Is the Deutsche Bank issue just a reissue of Bear Stearns from 2008? Crude oil vol spiked to 45 earlier this week. Calls are finally springing back to life leading into the OPEC announcement No one wants gold premium Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Mort: My question is: In terms of SKEW, how do you think about the difference in CBOE

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX cash: Janet & Co. crushed vol. VIX cash back in the toilet, but futures are still rich 30-day HV: 11 30-day IV: 10 VXX: Futures setting up for a VXX implosion VVIX: at 89, or 20 handles lower than last week Russell's Weekly Rundown: 1000-lot VIX weekly trades creates a synthetic VIX collar Two-way action in the VIX Sep28 13 calls The week in VIX volume: Monday: 546,000 Tuesday: 661,000 Wednesday: 727,000 Thursday: 751,000 Crude OIV/OVX: 40. Same as last week Gold GVZ: 13.73. Close to a 52-week low Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Comment from Jim Investor: Shortsighted market over focused on Yellen. Soon they eye Trump widening lead in battleground states Comment from John King: Since #SPX has 15+ "non-standard" expirations/month VS 1 "standard" -isn't it time @CBOE truly standardizes the monthly? Comment from Mark Brant: Sell VIX 2M CV (X+5) (X+9) daily thru settlement (regression). X=ATM.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: High of 19.12 earlier this week. 30-Day HVOL: 11; 30-Day IVOL: 14 VVIX: Currently at 109 with a high of 116 this week Russells Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: A very active week. Mon - 951k, Tues - 1.3M!, Weds - 656k; Total 8.06m (5.62m Calls, 2.44m Puts) Crude: OIV/OVX: 40 - Retreating from a recent spike up to nearly 46. Gold: 30-Day HVOL: 10.7% - Near the bottom end of the 52 week range. 30-Day IV: 15% - Only in the 23rd percentile Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Erik Leland - Saw VIX 1x2s going up this week. Is it that season again? Question from JVac - What about a mini VIX option? Question from TC - U.S. has VIX. Europe has VSTOXX. What is the Asian equivalent? Nifty VIX? It hardly seems comparable. Is there a Chinese or Japanese Vol product? Question from CVortt3 - This guy says you should ignore VIX. Agree? Please discuss on Vol Views - http://etfdailynews.com/2016/09/16/heres-why-i

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Back above 12; 30-day HV - 5; 30-day IV - 11 VVIX: 85 Russell's Weekly Rundown: Interesting trade in the weekly VIX options. VIX Options: Truncated trading week Crude Oil: Mixed signals this week. WSJ: Crude stock drop sparks rally. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Joshua Shealy: Thanks so much for all that you guys do! Sorry if this is a novice question. I know that Delta is not literally the % chance of expiring in the money, but more so the rate of change for a $1 movement in the underlying. I noticed today (8/26/16) looking at VIX Dec Calls that the strike closest to .5 Delta is the 20 strike, a long way from ATM. I usually associate near .50 Delta with being near ATM. Is this just a nuance of VIX, or am I missing something bigger? Thanks! Question from Dr. Larry: Hi Mark. Andrew mentioned buying stocks and buying covered long term puts when IV is so low. I wonder your opinion on my f

Volatility Viewpoint: Today we have a very special guest, Ricardo Manrique, Executive Director of Index Business Management and Derivatives at MSCI. He discusses: An overview of MSCI Inroads into options and volatility, especially through CBOE partnership Meeting investor demand for products related to international equities How does Russell incorporate these indexes into his analysis? Will there be futures listed on the idexes? Domestic versus international companies Listener questions Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX cash: Remained above 13 most of the week primarily due to impending non-farms. 30-Day HVOL: 5; 30-Day IVOL: 12 VIX Futures: Oct premium 3.3. points to cash, down from 5 points a few weeks ago. Russells Weekly Rundown How are the Monday SPX weeklies fairing? VIX Options: Mon: 192k, Tues: 205k, Weds: 276k, Thurs: 309K; Total 6.86m (4.80m Calls, 2.06m Puts) Crude Oil: Crude taking in on the chin again this week. OIV/OVX: 41 Crystal Ball: Predicting

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Spiked over 14 this week thanks to Yellen & Co. What will remain of vol after Yellen!? 21-day S&P realized Vol as of Wed. was 4.92. Buy volatility ahead of a jam-packed 'Policy Month,' says Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. VIX Futures: Futures extremely rich with significant premium to cash. Oct future $5 premium to cash last week. VVIX: 85.43 Russells Weekly Rundown Featured VIX Weekly trades: An anemic volume week: Mon., 362k, Tue., 415k, Wed., 615k, Thu., 290k, Total 6.43m (4.58m Calls, 1.85m Puts) Earnings Volatility: HPQ Paper bought about 25,000 HPQ Sep. 16 calls for $0.10. Stock down post-earnings. Sep. 16 calls now offered at $0.02, still 25k open on the strike. Crude Oil: USO = 10.95 OIV/OVX: 37: Less than half of peak levels back in Feb. USO Skew: Still bid toward the puts, with the exception of Jan 17. Gold Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close? This week: Russell - 11.90 Andrew - 12.10 Mark L. - 11.50

Volatility Reivew: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Spiked to nearly 14 this week before dropping back below 12. VIX Futues: Crazy term structure a hot topic last week. Follow up question from JJK: Thanks for discussing my question on the show last week. If anything it seems like the futures premium to cash has increased with futures premium to cash has increased with Oct future 5 handles above cash. What am I missing? Earnings season is done and FOMC in rear view mirror for now. Is this just pricing in unease over current market valuations? VVIX: 82.83. Well off levels from last week. Russell Weekly Rundown How was the first week for Monday SPX Weeklies? VIX Options: Mon 501k, Tues 526k, Weds 570k, Thurs 481k, Total 5.40m (3.72m Calls, 1.68m Puts) Options #QuestionoftheWeek: $VRX $26.66 up 7% Monday. IV30 is 63. HV30 is 99. Looking out one month would you rather Buy Calls? Buy Puts? Sell Premium Sill not touch $VRX Crude Oil: OIV/OVX 35: Less than half of peak levels back

Volatility Review: A look at the week from an options perspective. VIX cash: Hit 52 week low this week: 11.02 VIX futures: Question from JJK: The Sep VIX futures are trading over $3 premium to cash. Seems pretty steep. Is the market pricing in a big sell-off in the near future? VVIX: Currently at 96.78 VIX Options: Mon: 660k, Tues: 765k, Weds: 635k, Thurs: 603k; Total 7.36m (5.10m Calls, 2.26m Puts) Crude Oil Gold Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Service Dog: Do stock market circuit breakers have a significant impact on market volatility? Question from MoneyPenney: How does VXX work? Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close? Last week: Mark L.: 11.15 Mark S.: 10.25 This week: Mark L.: 11.25 Mark S.: 11 Russell: 13

Volatility Review: Breaking down the week from a volatility perspective VIX cash: 11.39; hits a 52-week low. VVIX: 88.14. Back below 100, but still elevated. Russells Weekly Rundown VIX Options: Moderate volume this week. Mon: 547k, Tues: 522k, Weds: 367k, Thurs: 512k; Total 6.69m (4.44m Calls, 2.25m Puts) Earnings Volatility: TSLA stock at $225 on earnings. ATM straddle approx. $14.70 - 6.5%. Open unchanged. Closed up approx $5. Missed by nearly $10. Crude Oil: OIV: 42, OVX: 42 Volatility Voicemail :Listener questions and comments Question from NTC34: Heard you guys on #OptionBlock discussing using options with stock to speculate on volatility. Can you explain that? How does buying a call and selling stock give you a pure volatility position? Question from AuntH: What is up with RVX? Crystal Ball: Spinning the wheel of where the VIX will close. Last week: Russell: 13.05 Andrew: 12.40 Mark L.: 11.75 This week: Mark L.: 11.15 Mark S.: 10.25 Russell: 12

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: 12.39 VVIX: 89.33. Back below 100, but still elevated Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: A light options week Mon: 625k, Tues: 415k, Weds: 534k, Thurs: 475k; Total 6.07m (4.17m Calls, 1.91m Puts) CBOE quarterly profits jumped 13.6 pct on increased volatility Options traders are feeling good about Alphabet shares. Crude Oil: OIV: 42.91; OVX: 42.33 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from DK from DC: What is the difference between the front month VIX future and the VIX cash? Question from Big Jim Wheeloff: Why are options so damn expensive? At this rate I will go broke hedging my 401k. Crystal Ball: VIX predictions Last week: Mark L.: 11.5 Andrew: 9.5 Russell: 17.35 Bill Luby (Guest from last week): 12.71 This week: Russell: 13.05 Andrew: 12.40 (with an 11-handle dip) Mark L.: 11.75

Volatility Review, featuring special guest: Bill Luby from VIX and More. VIX Cash: 12.18; Earnings season and the Fed not injecting substantial volatility into the marketplace VIX Futures: Still surprising premium to cash VVIX: 88.42. Back below 100, but still elevated VIX Options: A light volume week across the board in all products, including VIX Mon: 557k, Tues: 774k, Weds: 338k, Thurs: 566k, Fri: 163k Total 4.95m (3.41m Calls, 1.54m Puts) Earnings Volatility: Big names on the earning docket this week: AT&T (T) Chipotle Mexican Grill (CME) E*Trade Financial (ETFC) Crude Oil: OIV: 39 OVX:39 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from AL08: IV or HV. Which is most important? Which should I pay attention to? Question from Jack King: What is the primary driver of volatility, skew puts or calls? Crystal Ball: Guess the closing price of the VIX Last Week: Mark L.: 13.25 Andrew: 12.25 Russell: 13.51 This Week: Mark L.: 11.5 Mark S.: 9.5 Russell: 17.35 Bill: 12.71