Volatility Views

Volatility Views 134: Earnings Surprises and Greenspan Gold Fades Volatility Review: Big surprises from an earnings vol/straddle perspective this quarter. AMZN - Sold off about $30. LNKD - Closed at $202.50. TSLA next week. CBOE this morning. VIX Cash: 17.87 - 14.04 VIX Options: Total 6.53m (4.46m Calls, 2.08m Puts) VXST: Total 4927 (4918 Calls, 9 Puts)   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments   Question from Phillipono - Are there any good tools out there for comparing realized to implied volatility and determining the best times to sell premium?                                                               

Volatility Views 133: Skew Inversions and Dynamic Hedges Volatility Review: The week in vol VIX Cash: Most major indices up on the week - volatility returns to Rocktober. High - 23.08, Low - 15.56. VIX Options: A whopping 6.14M contracts total. OTC Volatility: Volker rule and its impact on liquidity. VXST: When is it going to catch fire? Oil/Energy: Strong investment skew, heavy puts activity. Metals: An outlook on gold/silver volatility. Volatility Voicemail: Return of the Don Comment from Don S regarding this listener question - "Let me leave you with this question: Long term which do you think will outperform - dynamically hedged SPY ATM straddle or dynamically hedged VIX straddle? They should be roughly equivalent but clearly they are not." Not sure anyone addressed this in a satisfactory manner.  When you dynamically hedge an ATM straddle (meaning keeping it reasonably delta-neutral throughout), you are making a bet that the implied vol at which you buy or sell the options will turn out to be lower/hig

Volatility Views 132: Wearing Tin Foil Hats in Crude Oil Volatility Review: A week in volatility VIX Cash: Quite a week for VIX cash. VIX Options: Again, serious volume in VIX options this week. Top OI Positions: 367,046 VIX Nov-14 20 calls, 354,540 VIX Oct-14 17 calls, 244,354 VIX Jan-15 20 calls. VXST: Another wild market day - another mild volume day for VXST, only 858 contracts traded on Thursday. Energy: Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market guessing.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener Questions and Comments Question from Neal Max - Sounded like you guys were a little skeptical regarding the VolDex product. What do you think of this products chances of actually making it to market? Do you think it has a shot against VIX?   Crystal Ball: Insane, compliance-offending predictions regarding volatility.

Volatility Views 131: Breaking Down VolDex, SkewDex and TailDex Volatility Viewpoint: Today’s guest is Scott Nations, president and chief investment officer NationsShares. NationsShares and ISE have partnered on a new volatility product – Voldex. He discusses: Why is this methodology superior to the current VIX methodology? How would Voldex have performed over this crazy week period compared to VIX? Why do we need this product? Does he expect traders to abandon VIX for this or instead using it as a spreading tool? An overview of two new planned additional products, Skewdex and Taildex.   Volatility Review VIX Cash: Insane realized and implied volatility this week. Range: 14.05-19.38. VIX Futures: VIX cash trading at a premium to all futures except April 2015. VIX Options: Nearly 1 million contracts on Thursday.      Crystal Ball: Jared and Andrew guess vol recklessly.

Volatility Views 130: Talking Volatility Skew Volatility Review: What happened last week in vol? VIX cash: A decent range this week. Non-farms taking the remaining juice out of the market. VIX options: Top OI Positions: 351,982 VIX Nov-14 20 Calls, 339,931 VIX Oct-14 17 Calls, 317,207 VIX Oct-14 20 Calls. Big VIX Trades: Today (Friday) paper traded 457900 VIX Oct 19 calls for $.86 & paper traded 54,997 VIX Nov 23 calls at $.94. Gold vol: GVZ ticking up over the past few weeks - futures options still put heavy.  Oil vol: Continued put love in crude as well.  Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions Question from Crazyhorse - Can some of the roll yield problems suffered by VXX and others be solved by either 1) rebalancing on a less frequent basis or 2) trading a basked of futures as opposed to simply buying the same long term contracts every time? Question from Chris Hanks, Toledo, OH - Hola volatility gang and perhaps special guest. I am a frequent listener and wanted to write in to say thanks for putti

Volatility Views 129: Juicing Up BuyWrites Volatility Viewpoint: Today’s guest is Russell Rhoads, who is a senior instructor at CBOE’s Options Institute.  He’s on to discuss a new white paper, A Leveraged Portfolio Management Approach Applying The CBOE S&P 500 2% OTM BuyWrite Index. Summary: Historically, the CBOE S&P 500 2% OTM BuyWrite Index has outperformed the total return that would be expected from passively holding a market portfolio. This outperformance occurred on both an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. Additionally, a leveraged strategy that matches 120% of the expected performance of BXY may enhance this performance with a similar risk profile to the market portfolio. Volatility Review: The week that was VIX Cash - A relatively quiet week until an enormous pop on Thursday. VIX Futures - further developments in VIX Futures term structure. VIX Options - Hot Strikes: 326,209 VIX Oct-14 20 Calls, 296,305 VIX Oct-14 17 Calls & 290,453 VIX Nov-14 20.0 Calls. VXST Options - On a day when VI

Volatility Views 128: Gold Skew Palooza Vol Review:  An update on the Alibaba IPO fury. VIX cash: High: 14.53. Low: 11.73. VIX futures: September settlement at 13.03 - right in the middle of the range. VIX options- hot strikes: 281480 VIX Oct-14 16.0 Calls 253852 VIX Oct-14 17.0 Calls 248014 VIX Oct-14 20.0 Calls Top trades: 4.4/1 Calls over puts. Paper sells OCT 18/21 call spread 16, 020 times for $0.18. Paper buys 5k DEC 25 calls for $0.67. VXST Top OI Positions: 1000 VXST 10/1 12.0 Puts 800 VXST 10/1 25.0 Calls 500 VXST 9/24 14.0 Calls Gold/metals vol: Gold skew looking somewhat steep to the downside. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments   Question from John King ‏@jking321 - Could you do a show with an in-depth discussion on LiveVol vs IVolatility vs? Costs/benefits over std broker data etc. Thanks! Question from Indy04 - This might be a strange question but does implied volatility always exist? Are there options out there that essentially trade at their realized volatility level o

Volatility Views 127: Diving Into Treasury Volatility   Volatility Review: VIX Cash: Catching a bid today as the market finally said farewell to the 2,000 Strike. VIX Options: Calls are trading at a ratio of 13 to 1, with the biggest trade being a buyer of the Oct 22 calls. Call/Put Ratio - 3.8/1 VIX recalculation (part 2). CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) announced today that it plans to launch futures trading on the CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (ticker symbol VXTYN) beginning on Thursday, November 13, pending regulatory review. Metals, Energy and International vol.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Victor C - Do you think the failure of VXST has to do with the product being too much vol of vol for most people? Is it just too wild of a product for the mostly institutional VIX crowd? Question from Señor Pablo - Thanks for the show Mark, and please say Hi to Jared and Andrew for me. You guys have mentioned some of the VIX competitors in the past. It lo

Volatility Views 126: A Big VIX Shakeup Vol Review: VIX Cash - A shortened holiday week. Market selling off a bit on Ukraine, after news of a cease fire.  Non-farms a non-event.  Volatility story of the week - CBOE Incorporates SPX weeklies in VIX calculation starting Oct 6. Question from Spreadjunkie - CBOE bringing SPX weeklies into the VIX calculation - Is this a game changer? VIX Options - 4.1 Call/put. VXST. RVX - Not much going on, only 504 OI. Gold/metals volatility. Scottish independence? Volatility Voicemail: Question from Nick Valenti - I am glad to see you are adding more volatility products to the show including the new Russell VIX. I trade RUT and IWM options very actively and I have been watching this product with great interest. I have yet to pull the trigger on a contract, but I have been close a few times. Like a lot of people, I am still waiting for other traders to join me before I dive into the deep end of the pool. What do you think it will take to kickstart this product? What will the

Volatility Views 125: The Holiday Fear Premium Volatility Review: A bit more volatility this weekend as opposed to last, because of the US Labor Day weekend. Trader taking time delay/Vol out of the market ahead of the weekend? VIX Cash. Trading in the 11.24-12.73 range. VIX Options. 4.2/1 - Call/Put. Top OI Positions: VIX Sep-14 19 C, VIX Sep-14 20 C, VIX Sep-14 16 C. VXST Options. RVX Options. Metals Vol - GVZ down about a point this week. Energy Vol - Oct WTI realized vs. ICE heating oil implied intersecting. Volatility Voicemail: Question from Silas - Congrats to the Vol Crew on such an excellent program. I enjoy all of your analysis, particularly the addition of volatility breakdowns in other asset classes, including crude oil. Ia, starting to dabble more into these asset classes, but I am somewhat dismayed at the overall lack of tools for analyzing these products. What software do you typically use when breaking down volatility in products like curve oil? Thank you again for the fine program. Question

Volatility Views 124: Volatility Pairs Trading Volatility Review: Yellen and Putin both, but not collectively, having an effect on volatility. VIX futures: August settlement comes in a little more in line, as opposed to last month. VIX options:  Top Strikes: Sept 19 calls, Sept 20 calls, Sept 16 calls. VXST options: A lot of activity in VXST: Aug 17 calls 1,500 contracts. RVX options. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments. Question from Vizible ‏@VizibleApp - What happened to Don S.? Sorry if we missed something, but loved him on the show. Great #podcast btw! Question from NOVIX -  I have read some material related to pairs trading for equities and I understand the process of finding non-stationary pairs price series that can be co-integrated to form a stationary series. The basic idea being to trade on the oscillations about the equilibrium value of the spread. While I understand how this is accomplished with equities, I am not sure how suitable implied volatility pairs on equity options are

Volatility Views 123: VIX Roars but VXST Whimpers Volatility Review: The week in vol VIX: Russia sends tanks into Ukraine and volatility skyrockets Volatility plummeted after US involvement in the Middle East. CBOE stock as a hedge. VXST: Big moves in only 24 contracts. Why is this product not catching fire? VIX options: Settlements coming up soon. Metals: GVZ dropping earlier this week, but taking a spike recently.     Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Lawrence - You were discussing if straddle prices exceeded earnings moves on your last show. I use software called "LiveVol” that has data for the trailing eight quarters, that shows this data for every company for the first and second expiration. It also shows implied vol crush for the first and second expiration. Their software is amazing. I like to sell iron condors before earnings to get short Vol. I usually use unbalanced condors with a short delta. I feel the underlying moves down for often and more violent. If t

Volatility Views 122: Goldman Straddles and Buffett Puts Volatility Review: VIX cash range: 14.69-17.30. VIX futures trading above cash for quite a bit this week. VIX options 3.4/1 call/put ratio. Top open interest positions: 273,733 .VIX Aug-14 16.0 C, chg +7148 262,146 .VIX Sep-14 19.0 C, chg +1029 221,559 .VIX Sep-14 21.0 C, chg +24 VXST OI: 3037, ADV: 832, 4.2/1 call/put ratio RVX OI: 591 Goldman analyst events study http://www.docstoc.com/docs/158693818/Goldman-Sachs from Trading-Events-Analyst-days. Studied 3,700 analyst days from 2002 to 2012. Twice as positive for stocks vs average day. Analyst days are more significant if held far after earnings. Checking in on Warren Buffett’s equity index put trade by Russell Rhoads, CFA. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Rueben Brooks -Listened a while back to a show you and Jared did talking about N. N. Taleb and how you were surprised that, given his long-gamma leanings, he would short the ATM straddle. I found this interview

Volatility Views 121: Something Is Odd with Volatility Skew Volatility Review: VIX hovering around 16 one handle higher than it was last week. VXST is averaging around 18. Volatility skew - some very strange occurrences this week.     Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments. Question from TiklenIvory: What is the best way to short VIX? Straight up VIX puts, or go long XIV? Question from James Forrest: I liked the conversation regarding straddle volatility going into earnings. I agree that there should be more research into this area. Jared, I would happily add my $5 to the mix, if that will spur you into action. If you had to guess right now, what percentage of Fortune 500 names do you think outperform their straddle in any given quarter? Question from Eligo: RE: Straddle debate from episode 120. Should any straddle research into earnings incorporate dynamic hedging into the results? For example: If the underlying does not net outperform the straddle, but there are multiple opportunities to dyn

Volatility Views 120: Breaking down Earnings Straddles Volatility Review: A little calmer week, at least compared to last week. VIX Options:3.8 calls to puts - way off the charts! Top open interest positions   245,725 .VIX Aug-14 15.0 calls 241,232 .VIX Aug-14 16.0 calls 238,364 .VIX Sep-14 19.0 calls Decent movement in RVX, but no appreciable volume to accompany it OI: 470. Crude oil stable following recent volatility hovering around 14%.     Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Nick Snow - Figured this would be a good place or at least the right place for this question. What is implied vol? I mean to ask for a stock we just get one number but every strike has a different IV so when we get one is that the average of the smile or is it the ATM straddle vol? Seems like I should know this if I am trading it. Question from Mr. Higgins - Dear volatility viewers - the Proshares Ultrashort VIX (UVXY) hit a low in June. I though the spread between VIX cash and UVXY would continue to

Volatility Views 119: Craziest Week Ever Volatility Review: crazy week for VIX cash. It had a range of 10.59 to 15.38this week. Thursday: largest jump in over a year -- the day after Jul options settled at a 7-year low settlement print of 11.03. VIX takes big jump on Ukraine, Middle East worries. Set against another Malaysian Airlines crash and rising Middle East tensions, the VIX had its greatest jump in more than a year on Thursday, closing at 14.54, up 32.18%, this represented the VIX's greatest rise since April 2013, reported Bloomberg. Gold jumps 1.5% after plane crash. GLD options breakdown: 2.1 calls to puts, Aug IV - 14%. Has been mostly hovering around 12% recently. Malaysian crash wreaks havoc on wheat futures market.  Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from George: I do not know whether the VIX index or the implied volatility and historical volatility of the SPY ETF can be better indicator to make sure where the SPY, so the most assets, head. How do you use these indica

Volatility Views 118: The VIXFather Turns on His Creation Volatility Review: VIX Cash: the week’s range was 11.01-13.23. Thanks to concerns about Portugal's banks repaying debt, Europe's VStoxx Index and the VIX jumped on Thursday. Will earnings season usher in volatility? VIX Options. VXST Options. SPX Skew. Robert Whaley, the inventor of the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, warned that investors are not getting what they pay for when they buy volatility-linked products. Mr. Whaley, now a professor at the Vanderbilt University Owen Graduate School of Management, addressed the issue of their effectiveness on Thursday at ETF.com’s Global Macro ETF Strategist Conference in New York. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Morgan Shebanek - Owwwwww!!! Just downloaded the mobile app. Pretty nifty even if it is redundant as all pertinent episodes are automatically put into my Podcast Que. Enjoyed the latest episode and yes I can attest as to the accuracy and timeliness of your "Vol Call"

Volatility Views 117: Getting Your Face Ripped Off By Vol   Volatility review: VIX cash had a range of 10.92 - 12.51 last week and has been on an uptrend for most of the week. A look at VIX futures. A riddle from Don. VXST, RVX options. Gold/metals vol: GVZ range of 12.64-13 last week. General downtrend in gold vol after sharp spike the prior week   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from One of the Men ‏@optionideamen: @Options VXX going to collapse into the 4th of July holiday. Buy the 7/11 28p.  Winner.  U can thank me later.  Freebie. Question from Atlantan - I find the topic of volatility ETPs and their net impact on volume in the primary products very interesting. When products like VIX futures were conceived the notion of retail trading those products was inconceivable. To say nothing of retail oriented VIX products like VXX and others. But it seems like these products are the big drivers of volume these days. I might even go so far as to say they are essential. Do you agre

Volatility Views 116: The Mystery of Gold Volatility Futures   Volatility Review: VIX cash hovering below the 11 handle yet again and the narrative has shifted from "VIX is too low" to "We may see a single digit VIX soon," which Andrew predicted this not too long ago. Top OI Strikes: July 13 Put - 416K, July 16 Call - 385K, July 20 Call - 371K & Sep 19 Call - 261K.  RVX: OI still hovering around 5K contracts. Janet Yellen torpedoed a key catalyst for market volatility, characterizing the recent inflation data as "noisy".  GVZ jumps 20% in one session. Oil volatility returns on Iraq fears. Currency volatility plummets.   Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from J. Ingraham: loved the discussion of GVZ on the network this week. I’m very intrigued by this product. Like Mark said, GLD and VIX should be two great tastes that taste great together. Yet this product does no appreciable volume. I’ve tried to trade this several times but the lack of volume and terrible spreads kept me ou

Volatility Views 115: VIX Says Poo to You Volatility Review: VIX cash broke the 11-handle last week while we were recording, but it has since rebounded over concerns in Iraq. VIX futures started to see some backwardation creeping into the curve last week. Is that still the case this week? The death of volatility forces traders to get creative. The Economist asks "Is this the calm before the storm? Bank of America's market risk index falls to lowest level since 2000. Iraq concerns spike crude price and volatility.   Volatility Voicemail: Question from Indigo Blue - What’s up with gold volatility? The contract is selling off like mad and yet volatility is at near record lows. I have been taking advantage of this opportunity to load up on some GLD premium, primarily verticals. I have also been think about ratio/repair trades in the gold futures options. Thought on this crazy gold volatility environment? Question from VIXinator - Do you think this is a good environment for a cheap VIX vertical - maybe Jul 16/20 C