Mark Leonard's World In 30 Minutes

On 5 November 2024, America will elect its next president. As of now, the race for the White House is shaping up to be a replay of the 2020 presidential election – with Joe Biden and Donald Trump standing out as the likely candidates for their opposing parties. This time around, however, the United States’ engagement in the Middle East and in Ukraine, coupled with its global competition with China, could play a significant role in defining the outcome of the election. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro, who is also the director of ECFR’s brand new US programme, and senior policy fellow Majda Ruge, who has worked extensively on US politics. Together, they discuss what America’s foreign policy could look like after the 2024 election and how Europe could engage proactively with the next US president. What should we expect from a second Biden presidency? Or from a second Trump presidency? What should Europeans do to plan ahead? And how can ECFR’s new US programm

On 24 February 2022, Russia blindsided most of Europe with its all-out invasion of Ukraine. This forced an overdue reckoning for Europeans on the failures of their Russia policy and the realities of Vladimir Putin’s agenda. In particular, France and Germany had been hoodwinked by promises of cheap Russian energy supplies, as well as the pipe dream of a common European security architecture with Moscow. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR board and council member, Sylvie Kauffmann, who is editorial director, lead writer, and columnist at Le Monde; and ECFR council member, Timothy Garton Ash, who is a bestselling author and professor of European studies at Oxford University, to discuss Kauffmann’s new book “Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie” (“The Blindsided: How Berlin and Paris Cleared the Way for Russia”). How and when could France and Germany have acted differently and changed the path of history? At what point was it clear that Putin was heading down

Poland is returning to European politics as a constructive player. The country’s National Electoral Commission confirmed on Tuesday morning that the Polish opposition has gathered enough votes to form a government and end the Law and Justice party’s eight-year rule of illiberalism and Eurosceptism. The results also hold two key lessons for Europe: a country’s illiberal turn can be reversed, and polarisation is an insufficient tool to mobilise progressive voters.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellows Piotr Buras, head of ECFR Warsaw, and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR Berlin, to understand what we can expect from Poland’s new government and what Poland’s return to the EU’s centrist fold means for its neighbours and for Brussels. What options do Law and Justice have in opposition? What immediate consequences will the election results have for how Poland relates to the EU, to Germany, and to Ukraine? What effect will they have on the enlargement debate and on European elections next ye

On Saturday morning, Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel, firing thousands of rockets, but also infiltrating cities, towns, and kibbutzim in the south of the country. It is the first time a hostile power has taken Israeli territory since the Yom Kippur war in 1973. This surprise offensive – which has already killed more than 800 Israelis and left over 400 Palestinians dead in Gaza after initial Israeli military reprisals – marks a significant turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Israeli diplomat and strategist, Eran Etzion, who is a former head of policy planning at Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former deputy head of the country’s National Security Council. They are joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and ECFR senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt to discuss what is behind Israel’s intelligence failure and consider possible future scenarios. How did Hamas militants manage to

Last week, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of Spain’s People’s Party, lost his second bid at leading the country’s government. All eyes are now on Pedro Sánchez, acting prime minister and leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, as he tries to gather enough support to hold his office for another term.Across the continent, Poland is preparing for the next parliamentary election on 15 October – and the rising far-right party Confederation is set to swing the balance between right-wing incumbents Law and Justice, and the liberal opposition.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellows José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR Madrid, and Piotr Buras, head of ECFR Warsaw, to discuss how Spanish and Polish politics will affect Europe’s political map, the bloc’s support for Ukraine, the growing debate on enlargement, and next summer’s European elections. Are mainstream parties in Poland willing to form a government with Confederation?Whose support will Pedro Sánchez need to form a new governm

For the past few months, the United States has been trying to broker a groundbreaking bilateral deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran, meanwhile, is forging an ever closer and ever more dangerous partnership with Russia. Finally, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt were invited to join the BRICS this summer – and are turning more and more towards the east. In short, the Middle Eastern order has shifted towards multipolarity. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Alistair Burt, pro-chancellor of Lancaster University and former UK minister of state for the Middle East and North Africa. Together, they discuss the power dynamics that are shaping the Middle East’s embrace of multipolarity. Who are the winners and losers in these power shifts? How are China and Russia exploiting them? And what can Europe do to pursue its own interests in a region that has become much more comf

In her state of the union address, European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, announced an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric cars. This summer, the German government released its first comprehensive China strategy, noting that “China has changed, and therefore we must change our approach.” These events mark a turning point in EU-China relations.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion: How we must deal with Beijing’s claim to power”, published by Piper Verlag (in German). What threats do today’s China pose to Europe and to Germany? What are the West’s biggest misconceptions about China? And what, really, does China want?This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2023.Bookshelf:Ende der China-Illusion: Wie wir mit Pekings Machtanspruch umgehen müssen | Janka OertelFive Times Faster: Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change | Simon SharpeLenin: The Man, the D

Global freedom has been declining for 17 years. Authoritarian turns are increasing, and current events – such as the rise of populism and Russia’s war on Ukraine – are shaping the future of democracy across the globe. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the president of the Open Society Foundations (OSF), Mark Malloch-Brown – who previously served as UN deputy secretary-general under Kofi Annan – to discuss open societies and OSF’s role in promoting justice, democratic governance, and human rights worldwide. What are OSF’s next steps in the new global reality? How could changes in the organisation’s presence in Europe affect civil society on the continent, especially in places like Poland, Hungary, and Ukraine? And how crucial is 2024, a year of big elections in Europe and the United States, for defending the open society model?This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2023. Bookshelf:Open Society BarometerThe Wide World | Pierre Lemaitre Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this seventh episode, Mark and Susi welcome ECFR senior policy fellow, Nick Witney, who previously served as the first chief executive of the European Defence Agency, and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, Camille Grand, who is a former NATO assistant secretary general. How have Brexit and then the war in Ukraine affected UK-EU defence cooperation? What potential is there for future collaboration in defence, especia

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this sixth episode, Mark and Susi welcome former permanent secretary in the UK’s Department for Exiting the European Union, Philip Rycroft, who prior to that held several roles in Westminster and Brussels, including in Leon Brittan’s cabinet. How is post-Brexit Britan approaching trade deals and regulatory alignment with third countries? How has Brexit affected the movement of people and labour across borders? What

On 23 August, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private jet crashed, leading Russian state media to declare his death. The enigmatic circumstances surrounding the event raise crucial questions about the incident itself, but also about its potential ramifications, which could extend well beyond Russia. In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the head of ECFR’s Africa programme, Theodore Murphy, senior policy fellow, Kadri Liik, and visiting fellows Pavel Slunkin and Kirill Shamiev to dissect the aftermath of the development.To what extent will the Wagner group be able to maintain its autonomy from the Kremlin following Prigozhin’s death? How might Prigozhin’s death affect the power dynamics within Russia’s security apparatus and intelligence agencies? And what could the implications be for the future of Wagner, both in Ukraine and in Africa? The podcast was recorded on Thursday 24 August 2023.Bookshelf:The Redline podcast – episode 95: The Death of the US Dollar?Russian archive about the Revolution and

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this fifth episode, Mark and Susi welcome Britain’s former permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers, who also served as David Cameron’s advisor for Europe and as principal private secretary to Tony Blair. How could the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China relationship, influence security dynamics in the EU and the UK? What challenges and opportunities might a new UK government face when

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this fourth episode, Mark and Susi welcome Nick Butler, energy policy adviser at the Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, and the Faraday Institution, and previously senior policy advisor to former prime minister Gordon Brown and co-founder of the Centre for European Reform think tank. How does the EU-UK relationship sit in the context of global energy challenges and climate change? What areas of common i

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this third episode, Mark and Susi welcome the Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, Mujtaba Rahman, who previously served at the UK Treasury and the European Commission’s directorate general for economic and financial affairs, to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. How has Brexit affected the UK’s economy? How can the UK negotiate a new agreement with the EU that avoids political difficu

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this second episode, Mark and Susi welcome David Lidington, who was the United Kingdom’s longest serving minister for European affairs between 2010 and 2016, to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. How can the Conservative and Labour parties ensure a constructive and forward-looking approach to the UK’s relationship with the EU? Can bilateral relationships complement engagement with Brussels in n

July has seen extreme weather events ravage all of the world’s continents, reinforcing – yet again – the urgency of collective action on climate change. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Kate Hampton, CEO of the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and former head of policy at Climate Change Capital to delve into the complexities of that action within a competitive global landscape – marked by inequalities between the global north and south. Together, they consider possible pathways towards compromises and how to empower sustainable transitions on the way to a resilient future. How can civil society and NGOs drive global climate action? What strategies can Europeans employ to navigate a fractured multilateral landscape in the face of climate change? And how can the West and the global south work together towards sustainable energy solutions?This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2023. Bookshelf:The Big Con: How the Consulting Industry Weakens Our Businesses, Infantilizes Our Governments, and Warp

This week, the leaders of NATO member countries gathered in Vilnius for the organisation’s annual summit. The summit addressed crucial issues and implications for international security. From Sweden’s accession to NATO and Ukraine’s aspirations for membership to new defence plans and security guarantees, this week’s episode explores the summit’s highlights and potential impact on the global security landscape. Mark Leonard welcomes Alex Stubb, former prime minister of Finland, Lykke Friis, former Danish climate minister and ECFR co-chair – all on ECFR’s board of trustees – and Camille Grand, former assistant secretary general for defense investment at NATO and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius. What were the main takeaways from the summit? What led to Erdogan’s decision to greenlight Sweden’s accession to NATO? What did the alliance offer Ukraine? And what are the key points of NATO’s new defence plans?This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2023. Booksh

What does it mean to be patriotic in 2023? Following the significant population movements of recent years, leaders in European states are increasingly trying to foster a sense of identity that can hold together their diverse societies. In his recent book, “How to be a patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war”, Sunder Katwala draws on many years of research and scholarship in the UK to consider what collective identity without division, fear of immigration, and racism might look like.In this episode, he joins Mark Leonard to explore some identity-related dilemmas in post-Brexit Britain. How did immigration and European interact in the run-up to the 2016 referendum? And can the rest of Europe draw any lessons from the UK’s experience?This podcast was recorded on 19 June 2023.Bookshelf:How to Be a Patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war? by Sunder KatwalaWindrush: 75 Years of Modern Britain, by Trevor Phillips and Mike PhillipsBlack and British: a forgotten His

The past two days will surely go down in Russian history. What started on Saturday as an armed rebellion within Russia by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries ended in something of a whimper, with Vladimir Putin’s former caterer-turned-warlord agreeing to leave for Belarus in exchange for some ambiguous concessions from the Kremlin. Was this a coup, a mutiny, a rebellion, or something else? What were Prigozhin’s goals? What does this mean for Putin’s domestic reputation and his political survival ? How will it affect Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive? And how have Europeans responded? In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes head of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and senior policy fellow, Marie Dumoulin, senior policy fellow, Kadri Liik, and visiting fellows Pavel Slunkin and Kirill Shamiev to shed light on the weekend’s events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the UK’s role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year’s mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like.  In this first episode, Mark and Susi welcome Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London and director of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. Which areas offer the most potential for fruitful collaboration? What challenges and opportunities might the reset bring for energy security, trade, and freedom of movement? Can bilater