This Week In Brazil

With a month to go before the November 14 vote, Argentina's legislative election has already turned the ruling coalition upside down and thrown a wrench into ongoing talks with the IMF. What is the government's strategy? And what should investors know about the election? Bloomberg's Carolina Millán joins the podcast to break down the stakes of the election.Guests:Carolina Millán is the Buenos Aires bureau chief for BloombergBrendan O'Boyle is the senior editor of Americas Quarterly

Optimism can feel like it’s in short supply in Colombia. An IPSOS poll in September found that 89% of Colombians believed the country was “on the wrong track” – more than any other country polled. As elections approach next year, there are fears the discontent may empower more radical options. In his new book, and in his latest column for AQ, former finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas offers some ideas on how to channel desire for change in a constructive way, while weighing in on some of the major issues shaping the country today.Guests:Mauricio Cárdenas is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and was Colombia’s finance minister from 2012 to 2018.Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlySupplemental reading:"How to Avoid a Caudillo in Colombia (and Elsewhere)" by Mauricio Cárdenas(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-to-avoid-a-caudillo-in-colombia-and-elsewhere)

As a series of crises challenges Latin America’s democracies, health systems, economies and more, Washington appears more engaged in finding solutions than it has been in recent years. But what are the Biden administration’s priorities? And how is it engaging with countries like Brazil, Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador? Juan Gonzalez, President Biden’s top aide on Latin America, joins the Americas Quarterly Podcast for a special episode.Guests:Juan Gonzalez is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security CouncilBrian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chiefSupplemental Reading:"The Silent Partner," by Brian Winter(https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/materia/the-silent-partner/)

Change is in the air in Chile, with presidential and congressional campaigns heating up just as a constitutional convention gets to work rethinking the country’s political system. What can we expect from the November general election? And do the candidates promise radical change – or gradual reform? Adolfo Ibáñez University's Isabel Aninat joins this week’s podcast from Santiago.Guests:-Isabel Aninat is the dean of the law school at Adolfo Ibáñez University and director of the Chilean Society for Public Policy-Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chiefSupplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Chile"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-chile/)"Today’s Young Leftists Care More About Chile than Cuba" by Oliver Stuenkel(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/todays-young-leftists-care-more-about-chile-than-cuba/)

Negotiations between Venezuela's dictatorship and opposition leaders are set to begin in Mexico - the latest in a long series of such talks. Is this time different? What opportunities really exist for progress? Is the opposition in a position to seize them? Political scientist Maryhen Jiménez Morales joins the podcast to discuss what's really at stake.Guests:- Maryhen Jiménez Morales is a postdoctoral research associate at the Latin American Center at the University of Oxford.- Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chief.Supplemental reading:"Venezuela’s Negotiations Won’t Get Rid of Maduro. So What’s Next?" by Maryhen Jiménez Morales.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/what-venezuelas-negotiations-wont-change/)

On Aug. 1, Mexico will hold its first national referendum, understood by many as a vote on whether to put past presidents on trial. Some have questioned the need for such a referendum and the messages it sends. But despite calling for the vote, the president “wants the referendum to fail,” says political analyst Denise Dresser, who spoke about the president’s motivations for the referendum and the problems – from COVID to crime – it may distract from. Guests:- Denise Dresser is a political analyst, writer, activist and professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México. - Brian Winter is AQ’s editor-in-chief.Supplemental reading: "Mexico’s Farcical Referendum," by Denise Dresser.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/mexicos-farcical-referendum/)

Over a month after Peru's presidential runoff election, Pedro Castillo is expected to be officially confirmed as the country's president-elect in the coming days, just in time to take office on July 28. In recent weeks, the former teacher and union leader has sent mixed signals about the kind of government he’ll lead, some of which have encouraged investors and critics. Law professor and journalist Andrés Calderón joins AQ’s Brendan O’Boyle to discuss what we’ve learned about Castillo and what he can expect to face early in his term.Guests: - Andrés Calderón is chair of the academic law department at the Universidad del Pacifico and is a columnist at El Comercio. - Brendan O’Boyle is Americas Quarterly’s senior editor.Supplemental Reading:"What to Expect from Pedro Castillo" by Andrea Moncada.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/what-to-expect-from-pedro-castillo/)"The “Shadowy Figure” Behind Peru’s Likely Next President" by Brendan O'Boyle.(https://americasquarterly.org/a

A congressional inquiry, a slow vaccine rollout and renewed threat of impeachment have put Jair Bolsonaro under intense pressure. But Brazil’s president could still rebound thanks to support in Congress and a potential economic recovery, says Patrícia Campos Mello. The acclaimed journalist says Bolsonaro’s fate will hinge on complicated set of factors, including the performance of his likely 2022 election opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Guests:- Patrícia Campos Mello is an award-winning reporter and columnist at leading Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Bolsonaro’s Turmoil Could Be the Amazon’s Gain," by Oliver Stuenkel.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/bolsonaros-turmoil-could-be-the-amazons-gain/)

Illegal and unregulated economies are helping drive a spike in deforestation of the Amazon. Is an economic model possible that keeps the forest standing and provides sustainable opportunities for locals? That’s the question AQ poses in its latest special report, and it’s the topic of this new conversation between Editor-in-chief Brian Winter, Managing Editor Cecilia Tornaghi, and special guest Denis Minev, a CEO and investor from Manaus, Brazil.Guests:- Denis Minev is the CEO of Bemol and an angel investor in sustainable Amazon projects.-Cecilia Tornaghi is the managing editor of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"The Case for Sustainable Development in the Amazon" a special report.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-case-for-sustainable-development-in-the-amazon/)"The Amazon’s Big Cities Need Green Jobs Too. It’s a Challenge" by Monica Prestes.(https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-amazons-big-cities-n

The results of Chile's constitutional convention election shook markets and left many wondering what it all meant for the country just as a presidential campaign begins to heat up. Many are hopeful, while others, like this week's guest, Patricio Navia, have concerns. The political scientist joins AQ's Brian Winter to discuss possible pitfalls of the new constitution, and why he is still optimistic about Chile's long-term future. Guests:- Patricio Navia is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly, professor of liberal studies at NYU and professor of political science at Diego Portales University in Chile.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Chile’s Big Gamble Just Got Riskier" by Patricio Navia(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-big-gamble-just-got-riskier/)"Chile’s Riots: Frustration at the Gate of the Promised Land" by Patricio Navia(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-riots-frustration-at-t

Kids in Latin America have lost an average of 158 days of face-to-face schooling, with more students out of the classroom than any other region in the world. In Argentina, the debate over when to send kids back to school has gone all the way to the Supreme Court, further polarizing a country reeling from a second wave and the worst inflation in 18 months. Economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati joins the podcast to discuss what’s at stake and give an update on politics and the economy in an election year.Guests:- Eduardo Levy Yeyati is the dean of the School of Government of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Back to the 1960s? Education May Be Latin America’s Most Lasting Scar from COVID-19" by Nora Lustig, Guido Neidhöfer and Mariano Tommasi.(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/back-to-the-1960s-education-

Cuba’s political regime took a step into unknown territory on April 16, when Raúl Castro announced he was stepping down as head of the ruling party. The change comes as the government faces headwinds from an economic crisis worsened by the pandemic, an artist-led protest movement, and a new administration in the U.S. But how much will things really change? Political scientist Javier Corrales joins the AQ Podcast to look ahead at what’s to come.Guests:- Javier Corrales is a professor of political science at Amherst College and a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Cuba’s Racial Reckoning, and What It Means for Biden" by Javier Corrales. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/cubas-racial-reckoning-and-what-it-means-for-biden/)

What’s driving an outbreak of violence on Venezuela’s border with Colombia? What does it say about Nicolás Maduro, who appears stronger than he was six months ago despite a worrying second wave and few vaccines in sight? The International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson joins the AQ Podcast from Caracas to weigh in on the complex panorama.Guests:- Phil Gunson is the Caracas-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

On April 11, Peruvians will head to the polls to elect their fifth president in less than four years. An unpopular, crowded field of candidates adds to the election’s unpredictability. Could the country’s unstable politics finally catch up to its long-resilient economy? Peruvian political analyst Andrea Moncada joins AQ’s Brian Winter to preview the vote – and the risks it entails. Guests:- Andrea Moncada is a political analyst and coordinator of the opinion section of El Comercio. She also teaches politics and international relations at ESAN University in Lima.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Peru" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-peru/)

A surge in migrants at the US-Mexico border has become the first big test for President Joe Biden's migration policy. It's also giving new urgency to a $4 billion aid package that he has proposed to tackle the root causes of migration from Central America. But just "throwing money at problems does not solve them," says former Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís, citing problems on the ground such as corruption and democratic backsliding. On this week's episode of the AQ Podcast, Solís offers his ideas on how Washington can work with regional leaders and ensure efforts don't come up short. Guests:- President Luis Guillermo Solís is a former president of Costa Rica and the interim director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Can More U.S. Money Really Help Central America’s Northern Triangle?" By Luis Guillermo Solís(https://

In the year since President Nayib Bukele marched soldiers into El Salvador’s legislative assembly, his critics say the leader’s threat to democracy has only grown. Now, as legislative elections on Feb. 28 promise Bukele a long-awaited majority, there are fears about what that could mean for checks and balances. In the latest episode of the AQ Podcast, guest host Brendan O’Boyle speaks to lawyer and researcher Claudia Umaña about the election’s stakes, Bukele’s resilient support, and the implications of a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Claudia Umaña is vice president of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES)-Brendan O’Boyle is senior editor of Americas QuarterlySupplemental Reading:"Surprise: El Salvador’s Anti-Corruption Commission Is Alive. But Can It Succeed?" by Noah Bullock and Chuck Call(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/surprise-el-salvadors-anti-corruption-commission-is-alive-but-can-it-succeed/)"Behind Nayib Bukele’s 'Shocking&apos

Colombia reported some good news in 2020: The country’s homicide rate was its lowest in nearly five decades. But continued violence in rural communities – and a pandemic that is emboldening organized crime – has darkened the mood for many. Veteran foreign correspondent John Otis joins the podcast from Bogotá to break down what’s happening in the countryside and the implications for President Duque – and the coming contest to name his successor.Guests:- John Otis reports from Bogotá for NPR and The Wall Street Journal and is a consultant for the Committee to Protect Journalists.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"School’s Out in Most of Latin America. Gangs Are Thrilled." by John Otis(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/schools-out-in-latin-america-gangs-are-thrilled/)"The Urgent Need to Reform Colombia’s Security Policies" by Juan Pappier(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-urgent-need-to-reform-colombias-security-policies/)

There are 16 candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election scheduled for Feb. 7, but polls suggest voters aren’t too excited about any of them. Whoever they settle on will have to work overtime to manage a country battered by a pandemic and a fiscal crisis. Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado joins the podcast to assess the country’s outlook and the leading presidential candidates, including a protégé of Former President Rafael Correa, the “incumbent” candidate who’s never been president, and the “outsider” who could surprise everyone.Guests:- Sebastián Hurtado is the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.- Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Meet the Candidates: Ecuador"(https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-ecuador/)"Who Is Andrés Arauz, Rafael Correa’s Pick to Lead Ecuador?" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://americasquarterly.org/article/andres-arauz-correa-proxy-or-new-leadership-for-ec

After a year like 2020, no one can confidently predict what the next 12 months will bring Latin America. What's clear, however, is that 2021 may be as transformative for the region as 2020 - for better or worse. The Council on Foreign Relation's Shannon O'Neil joins AQ's Brian Winter to preview the developments to watch in the new year, including the challenges of vaccine distribution, the questions looming over this year's critical elections, and the potential for collaboration with a new administration in Washington.Guests:-Shannon O’Neil is vice president and senior fellow for Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"A Less Apocalyptic Case for Latin America," by Brian Winter(https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-less-apocalyptic-case-for-latin-america/)

When Luis Arce swore in as Bolivia's president a month ago, he confronted a dizzying host of challenges: a public health emergency, a polarized electorate, and an economy crippled by the pandemic. But Arce's first weeks in office have left many cautiously optimistic, including journalist Raúl Peñaranda, who sees the emergence of a "minimalistic" government that's less vengeful than he expected. On this week's podcast, Peñaranda discusses Arce's first month, the return of Evo Morales, the encouraging judicial reforms on the horizon, and the challenges of vaccine distribution and getting kids back in school.Guests:-Raúl Peñaranda is a Bolivian journalist and director of the news portal Brújula Digital.-Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.Supplemental Reading:"Will Luis Arce Rebuild Bolivia’s Broken Judiciary?"(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-luis-arce-rebuild-bolivias-broken-judiciary/)