This Week In Brazil

Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum has hit the one-year mark of her presidency. In that time she has had to balance three key relationships: with President Donald Trump, with her still-powerful predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador and with the Mexican public. She faced skepticism, but has surprised many. Sheinbaum’s approval rating is at 73%, and a plurality of Mexicans said in a recent poll that her government is off to a better start than AMLO’s. Challenges loom, from fragile security gains and economic uncertainty to political dispute within her party and the ever-volatile dynamic with Washington. To assess her first year in office and what lies ahead we speak with Brenda Estefan, professor at IPADE Business School and columnist for Reforma and Americas Quarterly.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei just got a much-needed boost from his ally, U.S. President Donald Trump. The White House has signaled plans for a $20 billion swap line to contribute to Argentina’s fragile reserves—a lifeline coming just as Milei faces market turmoil, political setbacks and a corruption scandal close to home. With midterm elections set for the end of the month, the big question is whether this support can keep Milei’s project on track—or whether he’s already peaked. Our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Díaz of Cefeidas Group and AS/COA, joins us to break it all down.

Latin America is entering a packed election season, with Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and Brazil all set to elect presidents in the next 13 months. This is happening just as organized crime reaches unprecedented power. In several of these countries, crime is showing up in polls as the number one political issue. Security expert Lucía Dammert explains how booming cocaine production, money laundering and criminal infiltration of formal economies are reshaping politics across the region. Dammert has a unique perspective as someone who has worked in both academia and government across the region. She has a new book out, Anatomía del poder ilegal: Violencia, crimen organizado y corrupción en América Latina.

A landmark trial is underway in Brazil: former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, stands accused of trying to overturn the 2022 election. Alongside military officials and ex-ministers, Bolsonaro faces charges that could reshape Brazil’s political future — and reverberate globally. The U.S. has recently launched a campaign against Brazil’s judiciary in a show of support for Bolsonaro. Journalist Patricia Campos Mello joins us to unpack the case, the international stakes, and how both the right and left in Brazil are reacting to this pivotal moment.

Bolivia's long-dominant MAS party has suffered a historic defeat, with its presidential candidate winning just 3% of the vote. The result reflects deep frustration over the country’s economic crisis and political infighting. In a surprise outcome, Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira led the first round, followed by former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. The two will be in a runoff on October 19. In this episode, we speak with Bolivian journalist Raúl Peñaranda about what sets these candidates apart, the future of the MAS, and whether the next president can revive the economy while navigating the country’s deep social and regional divisions.

In this special mid-year episode, we take a step back for a look at where the region’s economies stand, and the picture is better than many expected. We evaluate the impact of Trump’s new tariffs, the short- and medium-term prospects for Mexico's economy, as well as positive indicators like falling inflation in Argentina and resilient growth in Brazil. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, Chief Economist for Latin America at Citigroup, who returns to share insights on what to watch in the months ahead. 

A major confrontation is brewing between the United States and Brazil, driven by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the deepening legal troubles of his close Brazilian ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro. As Brazil’s judiciary pursues charges against the former president for attempting to overturn the 2022 election, Trump has retaliated with threats of steep tariffs and revoked visas for Brazilian Supreme Court justices. Meanwhile, the U.S. has launched an investigation into Brazil’s trade practices and electronic payment services, further straining relations. In this episode, we speak with Chris Garman, managing director for the Americas at the Eurasia Group, to unpack what’s at stake for both countries, why tensions are escalating, and what a way forward might look like.

As Gustavo Petro spars with Donald Trump, violence is surging in Colombia ahead of next year’s elections. The attempted assassination of conservative presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June set off alarm bells all over Latin America. Since then, there have been other causes for concern, including a series of car bombs in Cali and news of a plot against another right-wing candidate. In this episode, political analyst Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, joins us to explore why the security situation in Colombia has deteriorated, what’s ahead for the country’s economy and its relationship with the U.S., and which candidates seem best positioned ahead of the elections.

As Brazil prepares to host the 2025 BRICS Summit, questions are swirling about the future of the group, as well as China’s growing presence in Latin America. In this episode, we explore the shifting dynamics of global influence with Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, in São Paulo, and a visiting scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We discuss Brazil’s evolving role within BRICS, Lula’s foreign policy choices—including his skepticism toward BRICS expansion and the Belt and Road Initiative—and what it all means for U.S.-Latin America relations.

The recent arrests of two prominent critics of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele have sparked renewed concerns about the country's democratic backsliding. In this episode we discuss the detentions of attorney Ruth López and constitutional lawyer Enrique Anaya, both vocal opponents of Bukele, and what these developments might signal about the president’s tightening grip on power.  We also talk about challenges on the economic front and a slight dip in Bukele's sky-high approval ratings. Our guest is The Economist’s Mexico and Central America bureau chief, Sarah Birke. Sarah shares insights from her recent reporting trip to El Salvador, unpacking what’s happening on the ground and what to watch for in the months ahead. 

On May 20, two top aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were shot dead in a rare daytime attack, raising questions about security under Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Known for her tougher stance on organized crime, Sheinbaum has overseen a drop in homicides and taken bold steps like extraditing cartel leaders. In this episode we speak with security expert Eduardo Guerrero to unpack the recent violence, what has defined the Sheinbaum era of security policy and what we can expect moving forward.

President Javier Milei has made global headlines with his radical economic reforms and bold rhetoric, earning praise from figures like Donald Trump and Silicon Valley elites. At home, his record is mixed: inflation has dropped dramatically and a major IMF deal has been secured, but poverty remains high and economic imbalances persist. With his approval rating holding steady below 50%, Argentina stands at a crossroads. Will Milei deliver transformational change, or will discontent shift momentum to other political forces? To unpack what’s happening on the ground, we’re joined by political consultant Ana Iparraguirre.

Just over a year after Bernardo Arévalo’s tense but ultimately successful inauguration as president of Guatemala, his administration faces a complex mix of progress and mounting challenges. Elected on an anti-corruption platform, Arévalo has delivered key reforms and economic growth—but his popularity is waning, and governability remains uncertain amid fierce opposition. In this episode, part of AQ’s special report on Guatemala, we dive into the country’s political, social, and economic landscape. Guests Claudia Méndez Arriaza, a veteran investigative journalist, and Juan Carlos Zapata of FUNDESA, join us to discuss political tensions, public expectations and development challenges.

Cuba is facing its worst crisis in decades, with blackouts and a mass exodus that has seen 20% of the population flee in five years. In this episode, we shed light on everyday life amid ongoing economic hardship, explore the durability of the Cuban regime and assess whether its grip on power is at risk. The conversation expands to Cuba’s evolving relationships with key international allies, including Russia, China, and Venezuela. Finally, we turn to U.S. foreign policy, focusing on the implications of Trump's return to the White House. Our guest is Patrick Oppmann, CNN's Havana bureau chief.  

With Brazil about a year and a half away from the 2026 elections, political dynamics are shifting once again. The economy is growing at 3%, and employment remains high, yet President Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—the lowest of any of his three terms. Meanwhile, the right may be gaining momentum, fueled by the Supreme Court’s decision to put former President Jair Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged 2022 coup attempt. Bolsonaro has appealed to conservative global figures, comparing his legal battles to those of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. In this episode, Guilherme Casarões analyzes Brazil’s evolving political and economic landscape. Casarões is a professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas’s São Paulo School of Business Administration and a contributor to AQ.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying remarkable popularity, garnering over 80% approval, while Mexico navigates shifting demands from U.S. President Donald Trump, economic uncertainty and security concerns. In this episode we delve into how she differs from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her evolving approach to the Trump administration, how she is handling Mexico's security challenges and whether her popularity can endure. Our guest is Viri Ríos, a writer, political scientist and an analyst of Mexican politics and public policy. Ríos is a close observer of Morena, President Sheinbaum's party, and its overall political project.

Organized crime is a persistent and evolving challenge in Latin America. At the moment crime syndicates are seeing unprecedented financial gains, fueled not only by a surge in cocaine production—more than doubling in the past decade, according to the UN—but also by profits from illegal gold mining and human trafficking. As security concerns rise, these issues are set to play a crucial role in elections in Ecuador, Honduras, Chile, and Colombia. Meanwhile, the U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, has been pressuring Mexico to curb drug and migrant trafficking, going so far as to impose tariffs on its neighbor. In this episode, we look at how organized crime is shifting in Latin America in 2025. Our guest, Jeremy McDermott, co-founder of InSight Crime.  

A month into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Latin America has become a key focus of his administration. From high-stakes negotiations with Mexico to his stated goal of reclaiming the Panama Canal, Trump’s policies have already had concrete consequences for the region. While leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele welcome his return, others question the reliability of the U.S. as an ally compared to China and Europe. To unpack these developments, this episode features journalist and writer Michael Reid, a former Latin America correspondent for The Economist and the author of Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America.

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, much focus was expected on Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba, but Panama has surprisingly taken center stage, even becoming the site of Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad as Secretary of State. President Trump has said the U.S. should take the Panama Canal back. Are his true goals reducing China’s influence in key infrastructure projects and securing greater Panamanian cooperation on migration and trade, or is he serious about the threats? While China’s role has grown, they don’t control the canal. Meanwhile, Panama’s deep historical and economic ties to the U.S. remain strong, fueling confusion in Panama about Trump’s intentions. In this episode we talk to Panamanian political analyst Rodrigo Noriega about Panama’s past, present and future, assessing how the country's political class, public opinion the canal authorities are processing this delicate moment.

Nearly a year ago, Ecuador faced a surge of violence when drug gangs took over a TV station and kidnapped police, marking the country's worst security crisis. Since then, President Daniel Noboa has made modest progress, with homicides down 16%, but 2024 still ranked as Ecuador's second most violent year. Noboa also faced a severe energy crisis, with droughts leading to planned blackouts that hurt his previously strong public support. Despite economic challenges, including a potential recession, Noboa remains a leading candidate in the upcoming February 9 elections, narrowly ahead of correísta candidate Luisa González. As Ecuador prepares to vote, we analyze the fight against organized crime, the economic situation and how either Noboa or González might handle a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. Our guest is Sebastián Hurtado, the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.