Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of http://BuffetsBooks.com (BuffetsBooks.com) and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin. Topics Discussed in this Episode Value Investing The correct discounting of future cash flows Demographic changes The debt cycle QE “I operate off this really fundamental thesis of manipulation: anytime somebody steps into a freely

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages. Topics Discussed in this Episode: The consistency of the US dollar cycle The COVID related March funding squeeze US current and capital account deficit Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point Unemployment “The U.S. just hit post Second World War highs (for unemployment), and if you don’t, post Great Depression highs. The point is that we are starting in an economic hole

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles... costing them dearly. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Are US Treasuries as safe as many investor think? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward.  Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well?  Can I diversify using stock sectors only?  What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Combining fundamental macro with price data. Does it work? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

How to educate financial advisors about Trend Following strategies. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

The differences between changes leading to improvement & changes leading to inconsistency. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

What level of Leverage should you use? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Jim O’Shaughnessy’s paper from 1987 confirms our thesis. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

In today’s episode, we discuss David Harding’s interview from 2013 with the SEC Historical Society, possible mistakes to avoid in Systematic Investing, if there are any differences between market confidence and the strength of a Trend, thoughts on Excel vs Python, and the importance of preserving capital during bad periods.  We also answer your questions, including: Does the rise of Volatility trading have any effect on the effectiveness of Trend Following strategies?  How is trend strength calculated? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Why Trend Following strategies aren’t perfect. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

What would the ‘perfect portfolio’ look like? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

How & where to trade Interest Rates. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

What defines a Trend Following trader? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

This week, we discuss the possible effects of recent bans on short selling, Howard Mark’s latest memo on the recent rally in asset prices, the Wirecard debacle of losing $1.9billion, Tesla’s ascension to having the largest market cap of all car manufacturers in the world, the benefits of Trend Following in a diversified portfolio, the power of non-correlated strategies combined, and the secret sauce of Trend Following.  Questions we answer include: How do Central Bank policies affect Trend Following strategies? Are some markets more prone to trends than others? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE