Behind The Idea

Boeing (BA) is in the news for all the wrong reasons. In light of the Ethiopian Airlines crash, businesses, travelers, and governments have raised concerns and doubts about the company, and its strong moat and ongoing rise as a business has fallen into doubt as a result. Investors have been trying to work out the impact this might have on the stock. We discuss whether Boeing's moat is as strong as it seems, whether its ex ante valuation made sense, and where the stock might head from here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Big IPOs attract attention as investments and also for what they mean in the economy at large. Lyft isn't the biggest IPO expected, but as a preview to Uber and as a company in its own right, it raises a lot of questions. We discuss whether there's a value to the company and a moat that will give it a competitive edge over the years to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We take our third look at JD.com (JD) by speaking with Mithra Forensic Research, an analyst who wrote a bearish piece on the company in May that seemed to play out. We discuss whether the company's accounting issues - delayed payments and financing-fueled revenue growth - have abated, why China companies often show up in short-sellers sights, and what to make of JD's investments in other Chinese companies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The cannabis sector has had a ton of interest in the markets over the last few years as it struggles towards legitimacy and normalcy. We saw this on Behind the Idea when covering Canopy Growth in October and when covering Aphria and its controversial acquisitions in December. With that in mind, here's a preview of the newest Seeking Alpha podcast, The Cannabis Investing Podcast. This podcast will speak with industry experts and analysts to see where this sector might go. Check it out! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's easy to take shortcuts in investing and to make conclusions based on patterns, trends, or what the consensus is or isn't. It's something we talk about on Behind the Idea a lot. Lester Goh has gone well beyond the headlines and basic analysis in his work on JD.com, and he shares the reasons he is bullish in the e-commerce titan despite its rough year. We get into the details, the headline thoughts, and why investing in Chinese companies really isn't that different than anywhere else. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bulls and bears for a given stock are often depicted as pitted directly against one another, but oftentimes bulls and bears agree on most parts of a stock. It can be that the interpretation on one or two key details changes the whole outlook for a stock. We discuss DaVita Healthcare for a third time, this time with Ethan Watkins, who is betting against the stock. We hit on themes shared with our discussion with last week's bull, but with a different bend and conclusion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Healthcare is difficult as an industry unto itself, as a political issue, and as an area to invest in. We revisit Davita Healthcare by speaking with a bull who argued that we were missing pieces from the puzzle last time we covered the story. And as we discuss, it becomes clear that the messiness around healthcare may be with us for a while, and one way or another it may create opportunities for anybody who can understand it fully. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We take one more look at the developing story around PG&E. Barron's writer Alexandra Scaggs joins Behind the Idea to discuss the moving parts, including the latest boost to the shares from a Citigroup research note. We also discuss the gaps in modern markets around climate change and flood insurance, the political influence that might come to bear, and whether the claims bill is going to overwhelm everything else. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since we spoke about PG&E a few weeks ago, the company has filed for bankruptcy and the stock has basically doubled. Those are usually not successive acts in a one-month period, so what's going on? We ask WYCO Researcher, a Seeking Alpha author and expert on bankruptcy proceedings, to walk us through the PCG's fall, the recent stock price rise, and why there's still a lot of money to be lost for shareholders (in his view). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's a special edition of Behind the Idea, as we're talking about our own book. Specifically, Mike's position in the ProShares Short QQQ ETF (PSQ), an inverse ETF for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). A short-term oriented, ETF position based on a technical/momentum strategy: it seems like an anathema to the typical Behind the Idea fare. But there's a method to Mike's madness, and we try to pick it apart. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

JD.Com is a value investor favorite and the 'hip' China play. Except that it had a terrible 2018, selling off more than 50% amidst China-U.S. trade negotiations and an accusation of rape against CEO and founder Richard Liu (charges not pursued). Seeking Alpha author Long Hill Road Capital argues that the company has hidden value and that the headline noise will fade. We take a closer look to see if there is value in JD's shares at this point. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A fast-moving story attracts traders, professionals who can sift through the noise for opportunities, and people with a high risk tolerance. Utility companies attract investors with low-risk tolerances eager for defensive positions and steady income. So where does that leave Pacific General & Electric, PG&E (PCG)? Hard to say. We break it down and look at what the broader lessons are for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Banks are opaque, thorny, and full of questions. They are also popular investments. Seeking Alpha author Eric Basmajian argues that banks are going to face a tough 2019, with Bank of America as a leading example. But the company's Q4 earnings report was well received. So what's going on? Behind the Idea tries to peel apart the layers and understand the company's prospects. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DaVita Inc has achieved a rare dual feat - be a staple in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio and be a target of John Oliver's criticisms. The kidney dialysis provider exemplifies the murky ecosystem of healthcare providers and payments. Does that make it a short? We break down a recent article by Ethan Watkins to see if we can better understand this situation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Match Group is a dating conglomerate, owners of OKCupid, Match, a majority share of Hinge, PlentyofFish, OurTime, Meetic, and most of all, Tinder. The company is also a favorite pitch of investors. Is it just because there are a lot of 20 and 30-something investors out there or people who like to make jokes about dating, or is there a deeper story? We look at a Detroit Bear long idea on the company to understand the stickiness of the Tinder experience and what that means for the stock. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2018 is reaching the finish line, and thus will end the first year of Behind the Idea (and maybe the post crisis bull market?). To celebrate, we're having the first ever Alphies celebration, as Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman work through their favorite guest, the biggest surprises from the ideas they covered, and the most predictable outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We wrap up our Kase Learning Shorting Conference coverage by reviewing the conference. We hit our favorite short ideas, our favorite presentations, key themes, and questions over the aims of investing and short selling and the future of the market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the second episode of our Kase Learning Shorting conference coverage. Ebix has been a battleground for much of the decade, and also a big winner for bulls. Mads Thamsborg of Bodenholm Capital joins Behind the Idea to share his case for why the second fact is going to change. A leveraged balance sheet, a roll-up story unwinding, and accounting red flags? Makes for a classic short case and a classic Behind the Idea discussion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We kick off our Kase Learning Shorting Conference coverage with a joint interview of Gabriele Grego of Quintessential Capital and Nate Anderson of Hindenburg Investment Research. They followed the trail of Aphria's recent acquisition binge, and what they found raised more questions and concerns. Mike Taylor talked with them about how they did their work and what they learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We've made it to the end of our Amazon miniseries. To bring things home, we talk with Priya Anand of The Information. She tells us about what she's seeing from Amazon's competition and potential regulators and what that might mean for the company. We build on a few of the same threads from previous podcasts, like Amazon's sterling reputation and know-no-bounds business approach, but break into some new ground on the physical store front and other areas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices