Nucleus Wealth Insights

If you are worried about a downturn in markets, one place to look for safety is in sectors that have already fallen. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr look through last year's darlings who have seen shipping rates crater - the logistics companies. After riding on the highs in 2021 and 2022, shipping rates crashed 80%. Market participants talk about a trucking recession in rates. Yellow, a major US trucking company went bust. Is it time to re-look at the sector? Agenda: Market size and segments Overall issues Shipping Trucking Air Storage Technology View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuati

Join us for a thoughtful conversation on retirement planning that could transform your quality of life. In this episode, Nucleus Wealth Chief Operating Officer Shelley George sits down with guest Natallia Smith, the director and principal financial adviser at Tru Wealth Advice, to discuss expert insights on how to approach this critical topic and navigate life's choices, particularly for successful single women who have never married, are widowed, or divorced. Links mentioned in the episode: MoneySmart Tru Wealth Advice Empowering you to develop money and investing as tools for living your fullest life. To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, e

Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr welcome Martin North back to the podcast and dive into the latest data from his household stress survey. The key things I want to find out: The overall household variation. We know that the average household is hurting a little, but it isn't dire. I want to find out more about the ends of the spectrum, the rich households and more importantly the poor ones Are things starting to accelerate? We have seen some of the biggest cohorts of fixed mortgages reset over the last few months, is that coming through in the data Job security - any signs of concern Theories on why we haven't seen worse economic outcomes. Is it delayed or are we reading it wrong View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram

Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr, dive into the world of income and yields. With interest rates 4-5% higher around the world, what are your options and what can you expect to get on the various types of income investments. Agenda: Sources of yield Asset by asset run through Overview View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website. The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objective

This week we delve into the world's largest asset class. Alarming economic data has sparked investor jitters, but imbalances have existed for a decade or more. Over the past 15 years, China's construction frenzy has reached historic proportions. The trigger point is elusive, akin to predicting an avalanche. Conditions are ripe for a seismic shift, this week we ask the big question: Why now? Part of the answer lies in the developers. But the big names of Country Garden and Evergrande aren't exceptions; they mirror the industry. China's top developers grapple with four massive challenges. Then we look at macro construction stats. Something's off. The numbers just don't add up. Can infrastructure fill the gap? How much bigger can China grow that spending? We also consider shadow banking issues, fading hopes of a consumer-led rescue and financial repression's paradox. This is China's fourth attempt at breaking its property addiction—stakes are rising. Join us in this week'

Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr and Julian Campbell-Wood of Global REITS - Resolution Capital run through the following topics: Office: The dangers of contagion in US commercial property and what the future of work holds. Retail: Macro data (weak) vs micro data (OK). Industrial: The Yellow insolvency and what it means for the sector. Will companies continue to keep inventories higher (“just in case” rather than “just in time”) or will they simply revert back to pre-pandemic levels Residential: US rental growth, will it peak then pause or will it fall. Comparison with Australia. Self-storage: end of the dominance of products over services and what Data centres: AI effect whether AWS/Google/Microsoft are going to dominate the smaller players Are there differences between countries/regions? View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio reco

Join us as Nucleus Wealth Chief Operating Officer, Shelley George, and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr, dissect the changes to superannuation in FY24 and how you can leverage them to enhance your personal financial landscape. From potential advantages to important considerations that could impact you, this episode has got you covered. Empowering you to develop money and investing as tools for living your fullest life. Links mentioned in the episode: FY24 Things you need to know article Catchup contributions episode Catchup contributions article To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head

Are we heading into a classic central bank-created bust, following a boom fuelled by low interest rates? So far this has been primarily about asset prices. Is it really a recession if unemployment remains low? Minsky’s hedge, speculative and Ponzi categories are playing out as businesses/investments that can’t generate enough to cover their interest payments are heading to bankruptcy. The most obvious victims are cryptocurrencies, venture capital and loss-making businesses. Main areas of concern: US commercial property, high-yield bonds and leveraged loans are much bigger but more of a slow burn. Defaults are ticking up, well above the last two years. There is an increase in both the base rate and credit spread hitting borrowers at the same time. Lenders/investors are also tightening their criteria. The Twitter loan is stuck with the banks that underwrote it, estimated to be worth about 60% of face value now. Recovery rates are much worse this cycle than previous cycles. Refitting commercial properties

This week we look at how to profit from a falling iron ore price. The market has been obsessed with the prospect of Chinese stimulus. Finally, belatedly, the realisation is emerging that the stimulus is not coming. Further, it looks as though the entire development sector is now effectively publicly owned. Utilities, designed to finish the prepaid housing, offered enough debt roll-overs to do so. Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr examine strategies that investors can use in current markets to benefit from this trade. Agenda: Depression economics grip China Iron ore market balance Market implications View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here

Globally producer price indexes have turned down quite decisively. China is trying to deal with deflation. There are two main explanations, with diametrically diverging investment outcomes. Under the first scenario, producer price inflation is a leading indicator for consumer price inflation. Falls in the producer price indexes will inevitably flow through to inflation indexes. Sell stocks, buy bonds. Under the second scenario, the gap is an indicator that companies continue to be able to expand margins. It is a sign that companies are raising prices to consumers faster than their own costs are growing. Buy stocks Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr dig into the arguments and look at the evidence. Agenda: What is the Producer Price Index Divergence or lag Two options: good for margins, terrible for margins Reporting season View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an oblig

In this episode, we confront the prevailing fixation on GDP as a sole indicator of prosperity. The recent government announcement of a supplementary statistic to incorporate additional measurements of wellbeing gave hope for a more comprehensive approach, but upon closer examination, it falls short of expectations. Join us as Nucleus Wealth Chief Operating Officer, Shelley George and Chief Economist, Leith Van Onselen, discuss the implications and limitations of the old and new approaches Empowering you to develop money and investing as tools for living your fullest life. To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find ou

Over the past few months the market has had a bifurcated view. Q2 earnings are expected to be bad, down almost 10%. But, by Q4, analysts have almost 10% earnings growth factored in. So, we are approaching a critical juncture. Q4 starts in a little over 2 months time. If those forecasts are as optimistic as they seem, this reporting season should see some reasonably large downgrades. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr check in on the reporting season to see what is happening to earnings forecasts. View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent

Steve Keen made a name for himself challenging conventional economic wisdom. In particular, Steve has a focus on how money creation works in the real world, which is very different from how it worked in conventional economic models. For this reason, given the recent banking issues in the US and the dramatic slowdown in credit creation that we are seeing around the world, we thought we should check in to see what Steve is seeing. Secondly, Steve is just about to release a new carbon report, and we wanted to dig into its finding and what the investment implications are. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Operating Officer Shelley George and Professor Steve Keen dig into this topic. To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucl

The Australian investment landscape is dominated by oligopolies. Many of these oligopolies are large donors to both sides of politics and seem to get an easy run when it comes to tax and regulation. Michael West runs a website that focuses on independent journalism. Part of what he does is hold companies accountable over unpaid tax, poor corporate practices and government/regulatory concerns. There is a good argument, that in Australia over the last 20 years, some of the best investments you could have made are in regulated companies and vested interests. Socially and ethically, we are supporters of Michael’s work and supportive of change. As an investor, you need to invest in what the world is, not what it should be. You need to be aware that much of the value in particular Australian stocks is tied to their closeness to regulators and political parties. If this changes, then the winners/losers in the stock market could change dramatically. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chi

In his book, The Ulysses Contract, Michael Kemp explores some of the innate behaviors, biases and challenges humans face as investors. And what you can do about them. He sits down to explore these and other things with Nucleus Wealth Chief Operating Officer, Shelley George, in this episode of Nucleus Wealth Empower. Empowering you to develop money and investing as tools for living your fullest life. To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation manager that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low-cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to Nucleus Wealth Website. The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situatio

It has been a volatile 6 months in macroeconomic outlooks. A year ago, it looked as if Australia was lagging behind the US economically; a few months ago that narrative reversed. And then it flip-flopped several more times. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr dig into this topic. Agenda: Why the AUD is going to 40 cents Fed still hiking, RBA all but done China bust structural End of cycle shock Next cycle: Australia poorly positioned no AI 2. no reshoring 3. China commodities super-deflation, limited ESG commodity exposure 4. Another lost decade on poor policy making View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subsc

Extraordinary scenes in Russia this week as a coup put a significant dent into Putin's aura of political invincibility. We examine the aftershocks for macroeconomics, political stability and investments. In particular, we look at the investment landscape for defense contractors, which ones benefit, which ones are less well positioned and where defense budgets are being spent in the aftermath of the Ukraine war. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen and Chief Operating Officer Shelley George dig into the investment implications of the ever-evolving face of modern warfare. Agenda: Ethical Considerations Quick background Geopolitical implications Macroeconomic implications Investment implications: Macroeconomics Military changes from Ukraine war Investment landscape/defence contractors Investment implications: Stock selection View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio rec

For the last few months, we have been talking about how the soft data (i.e. surveys and forward looking) has been looking recessionary but the hard data has been surprisingly firm. That has started to change, and in the hard data we are seeing sweeping signs of a slowdown. Join us in this week's podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith and Chief Operating Officer Shelley George, as we dig into the most recent data, what it is showing and pose the question of whether the reserve bank of Australia has gone too far... Agenda: RBA Argument Inflation Wages Productivity Profits Leading Indicators LEI Jobs Retail Sales Earnings View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn more about the hosts Find us on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Want to know more?  Click here to Subscribe Nucleus Wealth is an A

Grant Williams is a titan of the financial podcasting world, interviewing the biggest names in the industry and examining the core macro arguments dominating discussions. We take the opportunity this week to quiz Grant and see where he sits on some of the biggest macro themes. Agenda: Is there a recession or soft landing? Bonds say recession by the 4th quarter, equities say earnings growth will be back to 10% by Q4. Can both be right? If recession, can inflation stay high or will it at least disappear in the short term? Is inflation going to be structurally higher? If inflation is higher, will commodities save you from that inflation, or will the normalisation of the China housing market offset any gains? Can the world move fast enough to green energy, or is there an underinvestment in oil/gas/coal that will lead to price spikes? Can an artificial investing boom be large enough to lift the market? What is a reasonable valuation for stock markets at the moment? At what valuation level would Gr

We have seen a raft of comments and discussions from the governor of the reserve bank of Australia. The message has been disjointed. What has come through, whether he realises it or not, is the fundamental disconnect between government policy and central bank policy. On one hand, Australia is being flooded with record levels of new immigrants, putting upward pressure on rents and services. Supply in that area is not elastic. New houses and infrastructure take years to build. If we are relying on rising interest rates to crush demand so that "We need more people to live in each dwelling" then we need a recession. Join us for a riveting discussion in this investment podcast as Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Chief Economist Leith van Onselen and Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr delve deeply into the matter at hand. View the presentation slides To listen in podcast form click here Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you Learn