Breaking 50% Podcast

The downside of routine. Breaks happen both ways. A way to get less ripped off by casinos. TCW: Saints +6.5 over Falcons LFCW: "They were three plays away from making the playoffs." RW: Value from futures bets is often elusive WW: Matt Taff

The joy of victory. Some jobs don't feel like jobs. Ridiculous flaws in counting stats. TCW: 49ers +3.5 over Rams LFCW: "The Panthers are out of contention so there’s just no reason for Kuechly to play." RW: Return TDs count against team defense stats WW: No clue

Joe Flacco makes a poor throw. Insurance is a poor solution. It would be a poor decision to pass up a head coaching job (so nobody(basically) does). TCW: Eagles +6.5 over Ravens LFCW: "Just get an insurance policy." RW: There are only 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL WW: TheGrossProphet

Can intelligence evaporate? Can Giants' fans be any more irrational? Can we create some new narratives? TCW: Jets +2.5 over 49ers LFCW: "It's better to go in as a wild card." RW: The favorites haven't changed WW: KathiKKS

Rules helping defenders. A reason people hate elites. Two years isn't really two years. TCW: Vikings +3.5 over Cowboys LFCW: "I don't think there is any way he's contemplating retirement." RW: NFL contracts are different WW: BretLC1964

Rare incompetence. There are many ways to lose. Not being hot in December. TCW: Titans -3.5 over Bears LFCW: "You didn't lose because of the officials." RW: You don't need to play your best football in December to succeed in January WW: rwhitcraft PW: Z** W*****

So many choices. A popular, yet meaningless, complaint. Ways to make money. TCW: Steelers -9.5 over Browns LFCW: Any comment against the new PAT rule RW: Thanksgiving dinner is a great time to make money WW: Too early to say

A glorious celebration. An unfair standard. A regression to his norm. TCW: Chiefs +2.5 over Panthers LFCW: "Matt Stafford shouldn't even be considered for the MVP because his team hasn't won enough games." RW: Last year was the Cam Newton outlier, not this year WW: willflemming

Fatigue (maybe) matters. Multiple paths to success (or failure). A stupid strategy (stunningly employed by smart people). TCW: Dolphins -3.5 over Jets LFCW: "This shows that the Jared Goff pick was a colossal disaster." RW: Betting against teams that keep beating the spread is a stupid strategy WW: mikeschaef16

The Browns strike again. Certain honest opinions about honesty are honestly terrible. And deceiving memories. TCW: Browns +3.5 over Jets LFCW: "Look, I'm not advocating lying, but there's nothing wrong with not revealing everything, you know?" RW: Kickers are making PATs at a higher rate this year than last year WW: MMastro4 PW: rwhitcraft

A terrible game fittingly ends with a terrible cover. An easy spot to upgrade "gut feelings." And lessons about misplaced rage not learned from Ray Rice and Greg Hardy. TCW: Seahawks +1.5 over Cardinals LFCW: "It’s just a gut feeling that I went with." RW: The NFL is not a court of law WW: Gelo1211 & rwhitcraft tie

Eagles starting to regret missing on Cody Kessler. Unhelpful advice. And more is not always better. TCW: Browns +6.5 over Titans LFCW: "Cam Newton needs to become a smarter runner." RW: Forty-eight percent of NFL replays are coupled with a commercial WW: MMastro4 PW: SteveZissou23

Failed second chances. Begging C.J. to not be who he is. And Brock isn't good because he isn't good. TCW: Colts -4.5 over Bears LFCW: "Terrible decision by Mosley" RW: Brock Osweiler was not a good quarterback last year WW: Mrbossbuddy PW: rwhitcraft & SteveZissou23 Tie

Chargers wreck dreams. The most unforgivable verbal foible. Short-term memory loss. TCW: Saints +4.5 over Chargers LFCW: "The NFL really could care less" RW: In Week 3, Julio Jones had one catch for 16 yards WW: SteveZissou23, rwhitcraft and Chiss2014 Tie

The Lions play with an appropriate level of aggression. Eli Manning plays with his standard level mediocrity. Humans play with a normal amount of variability. TCW: Lions +7.5 over Packers LFCW: "Eli Manning has led 35 game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. Say what you will about Eli Manning, but no defense wants to see him in this situation." RW: Humans are not robots WW: redkes40, uncleschaeflit, Casey_Gaetano and SteveZissou23 Tie

Let's connect the dots about the ease of modern NFL offense when making comparisons to the past. TCW: Cowboys +2.5 over Redskins LFCW: "Technically it is, but I don't really like it." RW: It is much easier to play offense, specifically for quarterbacks, than ever before WW: rwhitcraft

Sometimes it's simply better to say nothing at all. TCW: Vikings -2.5 over Titans LFCW: Terrelle Pryor will have more than 1,800 yards receiving RW: The NFL is not college football