Stuff That Interests Me

Back in 2007 comedian Susan Murray phoned me up with a question.She was just arranging a new mortgage and she wanted to know where I thought interest rates were going. Should she get a fixed or a variable rate mortgage?I couldn’t make that decision for her, of course. But I could see there were underlying problems with the economy – quite serious ones – so the safest option, if there was affordable, seemed to be a fixed-rate mortgage. In the event something goes seriously wrong in the broader economy, at least she was protected against spiralling interest rates.Susan went and fixed her mortgage at 6%. Turns out it was pretty much the top of the market for mortgage rates. They duly plunged as central banks slashed rates and then printed money following the financial crisis. She’s never forgiven me. “Cost me a ruddy fortune that bloke” she always complains whenever my name comes up.Cheaper mortgages mean more expensive housesI may have seen 2008 coming – I was such a gold bug at the time – but I did not  fores

Bitcoin was built in reaction to all the money printing that went on in the wake of the financial crisis. The Times’ headline “Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks” was even embedded into the very first block in the blockchain – the genesis block. Here was a money system that nobody, whether government or hacker, could print or debase. The rules were set in code. The inflation rate was clearly laid out. And the system, rather than rely on trust – whether in banks, central banks, payment providers or governments – was based on mathematical proof and computer power.So here is an apolitical, censorship-resistant, trust-less, hard money.And we saw a very good use case for it this week.PayPal plays the cancel gameJournalist Toby Young, who is associate editor of The Spectator, has, for as long as I’ve known him, been setting up organisations to try and improve people’s lives. Disappointed with the lowering of standards in schools, he was one of the founders of the first Free School in West London. In 20

About 25 years ago, I was giving a speech at my father’s 65th birthday party. There were seventy or eighty people at the dinner and, as Dad was a playwright, most of them were theatricals.I’m a comedian, it was a fun occasion, so I wanted the speech to be funny. There were a few entertainment VIPs in the room, so there were professional as well as personal reasons to make sure my speech was as good as possible. But it was also a very personal occasion - a landmark in my dad’s life - so there was no way I was going to crowbar in bits from my act. I wanted the speech to be special: I love my Dad very much and I wanted to say so publicly. But I also didn't want the speech to descend into an embarrassing, gushing, sentimental affair. It was by no means the hardest speech I've ever had to give, but there was still a balance that I had to get right, and I felt a bit of pressure because there were so many professional performers in the room who were way more experienced than me.As I was speaking, and I guess I was f

US inflation numbers came in on Tuesday at 8.3%. The markets were expecting something lower – after all, the oil price had fallen back, not to mention most commodities.8.3% was above expectations and the markets did not like it one bit. Down they went like liquid through an open sluice. Hopes and dreams of a sustained recovery since the June carnage went with them.Actually, not totally.While the S&P 500, which I use as a barometer for global markets, has been making a sequence of lower highs since the beginning of the year – ie, the broader trend is down – it has also been making a series of higher lows since June, meaning the intermediate trend is up.Yesterday’s lows are still higher than last week’s lows, which were higher than the July lows, which were higher than the June lows. So there is something of an intermediate term up-trend in place.If you draw a trendline off both the lows and the highs, they are both still intact and you end up with something of a wedge pattern, as the chart below shows.If y

I’m as guilty of this as anyone, but many of us make life more difficult than it needs to be. Achieving basic happiness, or at least avoiding what depresses us, might actually be quite simple.Is happiness, simply, when reality exceeds expectation?When I was a young man I was chronically ambitious. I would lie in bed as a student, dreaming about my future, making Faustian pacts, yet nothing would satisfy me. You could have offered me fame, glory, wealth, the keys to the city and more, and it would not have been enough. I wanted everything. When we discussed our futures, my friend, Gideon, though it pains me to admit, gifted and hugely competent, but not remotely ambitious, used to say: “I just want to be happy.” I thought that was loser talk. Looking back, he was probably right.How often do you watch a film or a show because somebody was raving about it for it to turn out nothing like as good as you were hoping? You end up disappointed. But if you saw the same film with no or low expectations, and it’s pretty

“Pound crashes to weakest level since 1985 in blow to Truss” ran the headline on the Telegraph website yesterday.“The Bank of England had one job today”, as economist Shaun Richards put it, “which was to talk up the pound and instead their waffling sees it at US $1.14.” Theresa May Flash Crash aside, that’s a 37-year low.And that’s measuring it against the dollar. If you measure the pound’s purchasing power against essential basics such as energy or houses, its performance has been way more woeful.It’s not just the pound, even if it is one of the worst offenders. It’s all fiat money. I’ve been banging on about it for 20 years but I may as well bang on some more: fiat money and its devaluation is the greatest and most pernicious intergenerational theft in history. Devaluing your currency boosts assets but devalues labour When you devalue money, among numerous other things, you devalue salaries, which is to devalue labour. All the young have is their labour. You boost the value of assets meanwhile, which is wha

Morning All,A slightly admin-y email today.First up: How Heavy? - the surprisingly popular "lecture with funny bits" I did at the Edinburgh Fringe this year- is coming to London’s West End for a short run later this month at the Museum of Comedy on September 28th and 29th.It's a show about the history of weights and measures, and is, I promise you, a VERY interesting subject. Weights and measures effectively determine how you perceive the world. It's a nice, early 7pm start. You'll be done by 8pm - free to go and have dinner or whatever you fancy - and will give your evening a strong intellectual foundation.Please come along. You can get tickets here.Second up: there have been some significant announcements by two of the companies in my portfolio - major holdings - in the last 24 hours. I will be updating paid subscribers on these asap, hopefully later today.Third up: this article was supposed to all subscribers last week, but due to a cock-up at HQ it only went out to paid subscribers. The YouTube version ha

My apologies if you have received this twice. Cock up at HQ. Over a Zoom call earlier in the week,  I heard some people discussing the “Russian Davos” which they had attended back in June. I didn't even know such a thing existed, such is my Western, Ptolemaic view of the world. (Ptolemaic, by the way, to save you having to look it up, means you think you are at the centre of the universe, and everything revolves around you).So the Russian Davos, or as it’s properly known, the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, held in June, is an annual event that began in 1995 to signal the (then) new Russia. It would attract global political leaders, business titans, finance bigwigs and all the usual shizzle. The event went ahead this year, though, for obvious reasons, the VIP headcount was significantly down. Gone were the likes of (once) German chancellor Angela Merkel, ECB chief Christine Lagarde, Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein, Citi's Vikram Pandit and ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson. Top billing went to presidents

While on holiday in Sark this week, I stumbled across a book in the local post office: “Silver Mining On Sark” by David Synnott, which describes an ill-fated mining operation on the island between 1836 and 1847. Books are distilled knowledge, and I love the stuff you can find in them. Often stuff you don’t find online.“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”, runs the old French saying. It applies to mining, it seems, as much as anything.  We don’t use canaries any more; mines are powered by diesel and electricity, not horse-, donkey- or and manpower; helmets have torches instead of candles and there is underground lighting; and a higher premium is placed on human life than in the early 1800s, when workers were much more disposable. But the game is exactly the same: you’re trying to extract metal from rock and sell it at a higher price than you mine it for.  The tricks of the trade, aka scams, are the same too. So let me tell you the story of Sark’s silver mine.  How a silver mine brought the boom times to

A interview in today’s programme with a highly eloquent young man, Peter Young, of the Free Cities Foundation. Peter discusses China (he lived there for ten years), the Free Speech Foundation and, finally, whether today’s young will end up poorer than their parents. For details on Peter’s October conference in Prague, visit Life Time Liberty.The Flying Frisby is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

There have been some developments behind the scenes at The Flying Frisby, which are going to add considerable value. In addition to my own contributions, starting this week, once per month for paid subscribers only, Dr John Wolstencroft is going to be writing for this Substack, sharing some of his investment ideas and research.I first met Dr John in 2006 at a dinner and talk by commodities trader Mark Shipman for a spread betting company. It was clear then that here was a formidable intellect and we discovered a shared interest in junior mining companies. John’s a doctor in computer science, by the way, not medicine, and at another dinner in 2007 - this time for a silver miner in which John had invested (and did extremely well in making 20 times his money) - John coined the expression “global margin call” to describe what he thought might be ahead. 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis duly followed and John began to acquire prophet-like status in my perceptions.I interviewed him many times on my podcast - the

After a month or so of welcome respite, the dreaded US dollar has got stronger again. It really is the scourge of everything.Stockmarkets have been walloped, the yen, pound and euro have been walloped, and commodities have been walloped. Again.The US dollar index shows the dollar against the currencies of its major trading partners – the yen, the euro and so on – so it is perhaps the most useful vehicle to study the dollar. Given the magnitude of foreign exchange markets and the fact the US dollar is the global reserve currency, I see its price as the most important price in the world. Here we see the US dollar index over the past three years. You can see that textbook double bottom it made in 2021, with the pattern completing in June. We were writing about it – see here and here.Since then, through all of the financial and inflationary turmoil of the past year, it has marched inexorably higher. Now it’s retesting its highs around 109.My stated fear for some time is that it goes to 120. Why 120? There is some

How did gold come into existence? No one really knows.Its origins are thought to lie in supernovae and the collision of neutron stars. It was present in the dust which formed the solar system four and a half billion years ago and came to earth via the asteroids that then bombarded the planet.According to the Bible, gold and silver are products of God. “The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, saith the Lord of hosts” in the book of Genesis. Although - given that in those days the distinction between God and King was not that always that distinct - that might he been a ploy to control capital.Given its unique characteristics - beautiful, eternal, immutable - it is no surprise that  gold found special status at the dawn of civilisation. Our prehistoric ancestors cherished gold even before they were able to speak. Nor did that captivation fade after pre-history. Whether Asian, African, American, Mediterranean, Germanic or Celtic, gold occupies a place in the history, legend, mythology and folklore of almost eve

Inflation in the UK has just hit 10.1%, says the Office for National Statistics. That is five times the Bank of England’s stated target of 2%. FIVE TIMES! Sorry to shout. The joy of the public sector is that you can be this bad at your job and still keep it. Inflation hasn’t been this high in over 40 years.Are you prepared?None of this should be a surpriseWhen you delve below the surface, it gets a lot worse. Retail Price Inflation (the old measure) is 12.3%.Energy prices are rising. We all know that. Food prices too. But the Bank of England base rate is still 1.75%. Carnage or not, it is going to have to go up. That means borrowing costs are going to go up. And house prices are likely to come down.The pain of all this is going to eat into your wealth. On the one hand the value of your most prized asset – your house – is flat or falling. On the other, your costs – from food to energy to monthly mortgage repayments – are all rising. And it’s doubtful your income is keeping up with the increase in costs.A lot o

John Stepek is leaving MoneyWeek. I’ve known for a while, but as his final day was yesterday and we have just had his leaving drinks, so the implications are just sinking in. I first started writing for MoneyWeek in 2006, which means John has been my editor for 16 years. Week in week out, he’s had to plough through my twaddle. I reckon I have written at least 800 Money Mornings in that time (one Money Morning per week for 16 years), though the figure is probably closer to a thousand, as I’ve often written two per week. Plus the stuff I’ve written for the main mag. Each Money Morning averages 1,000 words, often more, so I make that close to a million words of mine that John has read, suffered and edited. What a saint.  A happy accidentI’ve been racking my brains as to a memorable and suitable present to buy him, to say thank you. Then it came to me. What more appropriate way of expressing my gratitude than through a Money Morning itself. For all

The Edinburgh Fringe Festival starts this week. It’s the world’s biggest arts festival, an event that sells more tickets than any other event in the world, with the exception of the Olympic Games.I shall be making my way up to Scotland’s capital to make my own little contribution, a new show that I haven’t finished writing yet (!), “a lecture with funny bits”, about the eternal subject that is weights and measures. Why do I say eternal?Because people have been arguing about them, and trying to impose them since forever.How French revolutionaries tried to decimalise timeThe very first legal documents we have from Ancient Mesopotamia depict rulers with the rod and ring – a yardstick and a measuring string – usually being handed to them by God, as they try and standardise measures in law. Ancient Egyptian documents, illustrations and hieroglyphs abound with similar references. Scales are prominent too.The opening words of the Bible establish our basic measures

Are the people at the top – the directors – buying or selling shares in their own company?If they are buying, that’s usually a good sign. But if they’re selling, not so good.They might be selling because they need the money for something: to buy a property for example, to pay school fees, to settle some debts.Then again, they might be selling because they don’t like the look of what’s going on.Directors’ dealings can offer telling signals as to whether insiders think the company is about to thrive or dive. That’s why so many follow them.With that in mind, I had a meeting with Joshua Saul yesterday, CEO of bullion dealer and storage company, the Pure Gold Company. He told me something that I found fascinating - similar to the value of director dealings as a potential indicator. I’d like to share that knowledge with you today.Who’s been buying bullion and why?Why are doctors queuing up to buy gold?The Pure Gold Company must now be one of Europe

I was at a dinner the other night with a buddy who is a much cleverer investor than I am. The conversation went something like this.Clever Mate: “Inflation is 10%. Rates are going to have to go to 10% to get it under control. I’m 60% in cash.”Me: “The system can’t take rates at 10%.”Clever Mate shrugs. There is an awkward silence.Clever Mate: “It will have to.”Another more awkward silence follows as I digest the implications. Do central bankers have what it takes to tackle inflation?Have today’s central bankers – the liof Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey – got the bottle to “do a Volcker” and put rates up to these kinds of levels? (In 1981, then-Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker raised the Fed Funds rate to 20%.).It’s not just the chair or the governor, of course – though they will be the ones making the announcement – but the boards behind them. To make such a decision, with such ra

Metals are not going to stop crashing until the US dollar turns.I’ve been banging on about that for some time. I don’t know when that will be. Nor does anyone. But this US dollar action feels like the parabolic blow-off that you get towards the end of bull markets, rather than the creeping disbelief you get at the beginning.I’m hearing talk of forex interventions coming. That may or may not be so. So I’m not ready to pull the trigger just yet. But… I’m closely following the price action of two metals that look remarkably cheap. They are silver and platinum. I mentioned them last week.Platinum looks cheap, regardless of what happens nextThe case for platinum, the main use of which is in catalytic converters for diesel engines, is pretty simple. You would normally expect it to trade at a 25% premium to gold. That is the historical average. But demand has been shattered since the Volkswagen emissions scandal of 2015 and the subsequent move away from diesel engin

We suggested a couple of weeks back that oil might due a hit as seemed the only sector that hadn’t been walloped and so it has turned out. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate slid back below $100 a barrel joining metals on the downward slope. Metals have been battered even harder, of course, with silver – as often seems to be the way – leading the fall downwards. How can silver be trading below $20 an ounce? How can platinum be below $850?I’m not saying they aren’t going lower. They probably are. But there’ll come a time in the future when we’ll be wondering how on earth it was possible to buy these metals at these prices. Silver below $20. Platinum below $850. Platinum is half the price of gold!Remember when nickel went to $100k per tonne? It’s $21k now.Wheat’s at $800. It was $1,300 in March. Corn, oats, soybeans, lumber – you name it, there’s pain. Never underestimate the bust-to-boom-to-bust potential of raw mate