Volatility Views

Volatility Views 62: Bad Money ManagersVolatility Review: The team takes a moment to discuss the problem with buying a put versus selling the stock and going to cash. Big events to move vol this week, including Apple iPhone 5 launch.Listener Mail: Letting the listeners take control of the conversation. I loved last week's show. I'm very glad to have Vol Views back in the saddle! My financial advisor recently recommended that I allocate a portion of my portfolio over to VXX because "VIX is low." I didn't know what he was talking about. When I Googled VXX I came across this program and have learned quite a bit. Thank you for informing me, but I'm still uncertain as to his VXX recommendation, especially after hearing your comments about TVIX. Should I allocate some of my portfolio to VXX? Why are VIX cash and front month VIX futures the same right now? Don - Is there ever a case when you would buy vol? You guys are always talking about Volatility skew. I recently noticed that, in Apple, the calls were bid subst

Volatility Views 61: A Short Straddle for CowardsVolatility Review: Vol review from the last few weeks. Short story: vol has marched downward to near-record lows.   Volatility Viewpoint: This week, Mark and Don are joined by Dan Passarelli, Market Taker Mentoring.  Dan discusses Market Taker and how he approaches volatility with a new client.  He also talks about mentoring students who want to dive into sophisticated vol products, like VIX options, for example. Does he counsel the novice trader to avoid these products? How does he train students to be aware of volatility levels for each trade that they make? They also discuss gamma scalping and delta neutral trading, and where Dan falls in the volatility hedge vs. direct hedge debate.Mailbag: Answering listener mail..    When is Volatility Views coming back live?.    Someone bought 20,000 Feb 75 calls in the VIX yesterday. That's near the ultimate all-time high for the VIX. Why do so many people dramatically overestimate VIX, particularly to the upside? Peopl

Volatility Views 60:  Jackass Investing: Don't Do It. Profit From It. Volatility Review: NASDAQ overview over the last month, since our last show. How low can the vol go? A buyers opportunity.  Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Mike Dever, Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, and author of Jackass Investing: Don't Do It. Profit From It. He starts with his unique approach to volatility. Is it possible, given such broad correlation among asset classes, to be able to really diversify? The book says you can increase returns, while reducing risk at the same time. Is this preaching the wisdom of using derivatives? The "loser's concept." What does he say to readers who are concerned about the current state of regulation and oversight in options and derivatives?   Crystal  Ball: Looking ahead for the next month for NASDAQ vol and VIX.

Best of Volatility Views: Busting Skew Myths Busting Skew Myths! Does the Lottery Effect actually exist? Do flaws in the Black-Scholes model create skew? Were options traders prior to 1987 completely insane? Also, an exploration of the fundamental and psychological causes of Equity/Investment skew.

Volatility Views 59:  A Deep Dive into Variance SwapsVolatility Review: VIX has certainly declined since the last show, with a pop happening only recently. NASDAQ vol rundown since last show. Apple's impact on the NASDAQ wasn't as big as expected.  Volatility Viewpoint: Don goes over some of the math of variance swaps, including how they differ from vol swaps, variance and vega notional, convexity, and vol of vol.Listener Mail: Addressing Listener QuestionsVol Views Gang - Which will we hit first a VIX of 40 or 14? (Via Twitter from TEXASTEA)Why don't more brokerage firms allow you to quote options by vol levels instead of price/premium levels? You'd think this would be a very desirable feature, particularly to the type of educated clientele that listens to a show like Volatility Views. That's certainly a desirable clientele for a broker. I know I would certainly like that feature. Can you guys weigh in on this and hopefully help me spread the word for this feature among online brokerage firms. (On a side not

Best of Volatility Views:  Larry the LegendIn this episode, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian are joined by Larry McMillan.Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio.  Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping.

Best of Volatility Views: The Great Skew Debate Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance. Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace.

Another selection from The Best of Volatility Views. In this episode, dated June 20, 2011, Mark and Don chat with Bill Luby, creator of the popular website VIX and More. They discuss the roller coaster volatility of late, whether the VIX has underperformed given current market conditions, whether VIX futures are essentially irrelevant, whether VIX should be marketed as a hedging tool, the inherent differences between implied and realized volatility, Euro vol updates, and much more...Read more: http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/radio/#ixzz1zVHYNY61 The Options Insider: Your Inside Source For Options Information 

Best of Volatility Views: Volatility Discussion with Nobel Laureate Robert Engle Mark and Don have the honor of speaking with Professor Engle on various aspects of volatility, including: Professor Engle's move from physics to economics ARCH and GARCH models, and how the ARCH model was born The Volatility Institute Vlab SoFiE Professor Engle's work with the SEC's Flash Crash Advisory Committee The Professor's viewpoint on Dodd-Frank, particularly as it applies to derivatives & counterparty risk.

Volatility Views 58: Cracking the Bond Code Volatility Review: NASDAQ realized volatility makes a slight upward move, and until we get any evidence to the contrary, this action will likely continue. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Madhu Kalimipalli, Associate Professor of Finance and Director of the Financial Services Research Center at the School of Business at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Dr. Kalimipalli discusses:-His research, in which he looks at correlations between overall equity market vol and the treasury markets.-What kind of skews he sees in the bond markets insofar as implied volatility is concerned.-Which variable is preferable to use, VIX or the stock turnover, or both?-How the volatility of a particular underlying correlates to corporate bonds on the underlying.-If he finds a more exact bond spread relationship in the near-term as opposed to the long-term.-How actual equity or stock market volatility matters in terms of pricing when you throw in

Volatility Views 57:  Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian Volatility Review: VIX is back this week, after it ended unchanged at 0.0 before last week's Option Block episodes. Time will tell as we see what happens in Europe. NASDAQ one- and three-month realized volatility has had almost no movement at all, but the trend is surely upward.  Volatility Viewpoint: Long-time panelist Mark Sebastian gets the chance to sit in the guest's seat and discusses what Option Pit is and the world of options education.  Mail Bag: Answering listener questions.CBOE is in the process of changing the way they list weekly options. How do you think the change will impact weekly options volatility, as well as the way they perform? Thanks again and I love the show. You guys make my commute to work a little more bearable. (Via Facebook from Chris Monty) In a time spread, which risk/opportunity should I really focus on: gamma or vega? It seems like trading time spreads is essentially finding a proper balance between these two. (Via em

Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun Volatility Review: Broad selloffs across the markets, due to the poor jobless claims numbers. One-month realized volatility on the NASDAQ was up about half a percentage point to 17.40, and the three-month edged higher to 16.02. Reacting, rather than predicting, was the order of the day. Listener Mail: We're Going Listener Mail Crazy Again This Week How do you guys feel the addition of Facebook will impact NASDAQ volatility in the future? (Via Twitter from DAMIAN14)What's your opinion of Facebook's option vol and options trading so far? (Via email from Tim L. in Portland, OR) Any update on the NASDAQ VolContracts? (Via Twitter from EuroDJ) Is delta neutral hedging the only way to trade realized volatility in the options market right now (outside of VolContracts on the Euro, of course)? I like what you guys talk about every week and I'm looking for ways to capture that good ol' "realized vol." (Via Facebook from Steve K., Victoria, BC) I just wanted to write in t

Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility Volatility Review: The play between pre- and post-election Greek volatility has seen big action. Ultimately though, the EU will let the Greeks decided their own fate. Andrew G. does not want to own pre-election juice. Given realized volatility, there has not been much change in the NASDAQ. The three-month realized vol has actually risen somewhat -- replacing volatility that was extremely low just a short while ago. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Andrew Patton, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at Duke University. He is the author or co-author of several academic papers, including "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility." Prof. Patton discusses some of its findings, including the importance of directional movement in forecasting future volatility. Crystal Ball: In VIX, Andrew G. is just waiting for the Greek election to sell June, buy July, and unleash the time spread. NASDAQ one-month realized may roll over a little bit. The short term might be

Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two Volatility Review: NASDAQ one-month vol came in a little bit, and at the same time the three-month vol went up slightly. The risk premium between implied and realized volatility has widened further. A crazy scenario of implied vs. realized volatility in VIX. Listener Mail: Mark, Don, and Mark take on listener questions. All of this talk about JP Morgan has left me wondering, what kind of derivatives hedge loses $2.3 billion? How is that even possible? Help me Volatility Views hosts, you are my only hope! (Todd Lundgren, Pittsburgh, PA) I Know Bob and Don are big fans of vol cones. How about a vol cone update on the major indices (VIX, NASDAQ, Euro, etc.) for your loyal listeners? Where should I be buying, or perhaps not buying VIX here? (TEDMAS via Facebook) Hey Don, what index is next from VolX after NASDAQ? Russell? Emerging Markets? Thanks. (Via Twitter from UNCLESTEVE) Mark is fond of calling NASDAQ "Apple Plus." I know he's joking, but

Volatility Views 53: An Insider's View of Risk Management Volatility Review: There is an extra note of tension in the market with S&P vol waiting for the other shoe to drop. NASDAQ vol is slightly higher. JPMorgan news does little to rattle VIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Todd Petzel, the Chief Investment Officer at Offit Capital, sits down with Mark and Don, and discusses myriad aspects of volatility and risk management. Topics include:. The instruments he uses to manage portfolio risk. Structured VIX products. Go-to products. Financial investors and their lacking use of options. Pending regulations concerning position limits Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees the market bouncing around in the short term. A safe trade may be shorting U.S. treasuries. There is still a continued contraction between implied risk premium and realized vol levels. Vol may go higher, but without anything dramatic moving it.

Volatility Views 52: The Father of Financial Futures Volatility Review: Listeners from last week may remember Don made a timid prediction that the realized volatility of NASDAQ could be going a bit higher, and it managed to inch up a few basis points. It was a strong down week for equities. Since this selloff was gradual, the actual market volatility was not significant. Greek and French elections this weekend may fuel some volatility moves next week. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Richard Sandor, "the father of financial futures," and Chairman and CEO of Environmental Financial Products. Dr. Sandor discusses his new book "Good Derivatives," and his storied career. He distinguishes between regulated and unregulated derivatives, discusses what it takes to create a new market, and his involvement in the issue of acid rain. Crystal Ball: There may be an increase in realized volatility on NASDAQ in the next week. Putting a cap on volatility at 20%. Upcoming elections in both France and Greece.

Volatility Views 51: Risk Managers: The Adults in the Group Volatility Review: VIX options were absolutely crushed this week. Apple after earnings and its effect on NASDAQ vol. Don and Sebastian weigh in on VVIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Views welcomes back Euan Sinclair, author and risk manager at Bluefin Trading, to discuss risk management and his work on the barrier (or first time) method for calculating volatility. Euan gives a quick sneak preview of the updates to his book. The group also discusses Euan's opinion on vol of vol, and if the universe of ETPs has dramatically affected the vol of vol. Crystal Ball: Sebastian is looking at a 14-handle in the VIX and observed that S&P realized volatility was already in the 14s and would probably maintain those levels. Now that Apple's earnings are out of the way, what to look for in the NASDAQ? Getting close to the summer doldrums.

Volatility Views 50: Listener Mail Extravaganza Volatility Review: NASDAQ (aka Apple+) is starting to see a rise in realized volatility, as had been anticipated. VIX looks like it is settling back into a range, so we will have to see if it holds where it is or moves yet again. We seem to be in flux; there's no real trend here. Listener Mail: Via email from Tim Siffron, Lansing, MI.I love your show and the great guests you guys manage to wrangle, but I was a little out of my depth with last week's guest. It's been a while since I took a stats course, so your discussion of jump frameworks and stochastic volatility models for pricing OTC variant swaps was a tad out of my league. Can you give a quick, plain English summary of the take-aways from that discussion, for those of us who may have had trouble following along? Thanks and looking forward to the NASDAQ contracts. Via Twitter from Joe X4.Mark and Don: Who is your favorite Vol Views guest so far? Love the show. Via email from Aston VaLance, Hoboken, NJ.Mar

Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps Volatility Review: It's funny how it didn't take long for our prediction of a range-bound VIX to be proven wrong! The VVIX has been high. Is a tradable VIX of VIX in the works? What have the NASDAQ and SPX vol of vol six-month averages been? One-year? Don gives some remarkable numbers. Apple on the move downwards; some are eager to buy Apple at 600. NASDAQ vol cones, like most volatility readings, are at historical lows. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guests, Thomas Thorsen and Emil Stamp, are the authors of the master's thesis, "Pricing of Variance and Volatility Swaps in a Stochastic Volatility and Jump Framework." The gang discusses pricing models of OTC variance swaps, the different models the authors created, and the accuracy of the models for both forecasting realized volatility, as well as pricing of variance swaps and GARCH models in real-world applications. Crystal Ball: Are you still shorting the VIX? Are higher levels forecasted f

Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX Volatility Review: Not much vol action to report with the markets closed on recording day (Friday). Steep contango in VIX futures has lessened in the past few weeks. Long holiday weekend volatility didn't fully come out of VIX futures and index options, which is highly interesting and unusual. Also an unusual situation -- unemployment numbers were released on a day when the market was closed. Don and Mark discuss contango. NASDAQ volatility update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don are joined by David Palmer, Volatility Book Portfolio Manager at Hudson Bay Capital. They discuss the evolution of skew, the growing market of products tied to VIX, and how they're manipulating the underlying, the halting of TVIX share creation, OTC versus listed trading, volatility arbitrage opportunities, rational arbitrage, and hedging and downside protection. Crystal Ball: Nothing to rant about in S&P land, at least until we reach the next unknown unknown. Summer doldrums are coming.