Volatility Views

Volatility Views 47:  How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio Volatility Review:  VIX review, with interesting corresponding elements relative to VIX and VIX skew. Monday massive overreaction to the market rally. NASDAQ vol review, driven by AAPL, which is slowing down a bit.  Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark are joined by Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and author of Elements of Financial Risk Management and a chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting.   Prof. Christoffersen discusses dynamic volatility, the Sharpe ratio, and practical applications for the average investor.  Mark asks Prof. Christoffersen whether it's possible to have a truly diversified portfolio without having some kind of volatility asset.  He also discusses his research on skew and its impact on the underlying instrument.  Crystal Ball: Looking deep into the murky ether of the future of volatility, Mark and Mark pontificate on th

Volatility View 46: Volatility Discussion with the Godfather Volatility Review: Slaughter of the VIX April future, with May poised for the same.  Credit Suisse released more creation units and TVIX crushed long positions - going from 13 to 6.5 in a week. Euro vol review -- March 1- and 3-month contracts expired last week. NASDAQ vol update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark have the great pleasure to discuss volatility with the Godfather:  Anthony Neuberger, Professor of Finance at Warwick Business School.  The gang discusses his seminal paper, "The Log Contract and Other Power Contracts.”  They also discuss tail risk and skew risk. Mark asks Prof. Neuberger if the market is correctly pricing in tail risk. Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees VIX staying between 14 and 16, with a lot of erosion in VXX.  Watch out for contango.  Euro vol is a coin flip right now. NASDAQ vol might be too expensive right now because of Apple.

Volatility Views 45: What Does Butter Have to Do with It? Mark is joined by Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause croquet courtside at the FIA Boca Conference. Volatility Viewpoint: Mechanics of the forthcoming Nasdaq VolContracts. Bob gives details on the genesis of the product, the formula, how it captures movement, the agreement with Nasdaq, the difference between VolContracts and other Nasdaq-based products, the specifications, the closing price, and more.

Volatility Views 44:  Listener Mail  Extravaganza Volatility Review: Vol is down and SPX is up. Even the  news of the new iPad wasn't enough to boost the market. Don opines on Apple.  Nasdaq vol still flat-lined.  Euro vol -- the  1-month and 3-month March contracts expire  soon.  Listener Mail: Nasdaq VolContracts, TVIX, the nature of  VolContracts, and avoiding the VIX.1. Will the new Nasdaq VolContracts be  exclusive to the Nasdaq, like the Euro and CME, or multi-listed?  2.  What's your take on the ongoing TVIX drama? Cause? Was it shady? Is TVIX  done?  3. I'm new to the show, so I apologize if you guys have  discussed this in earlier episodes, but I'm intrigued by the concept of  VolContracts and how they work. Would the new Nasdaq products be normal  futures and options in the truest sense? In other words, do normal strategies  such as verticals, time spreads, etc. apply in VolContracts products? Or, do I  need to relearn my trading fundamentals and apply some new concepts to fully  capitalize on these

Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility? Volatility Review: The VIX was gaining ground again, but became mired in a holding pattern. What was the cause of the influx of capital in TVIX? NASDAQ vol is still flat-lining. Euro vol review. Volatility Viewpoint: Sanjay Tolia of Bengal Capital is the featured guest. A great conversation included questions such as: Are high levels of correlation taking away from single-stock option trading? Are high levels of correlation taking away from running balanced volatility portfolios? Are VIX products good or bad for retail investors? Are weekly options good or bad for retail clients? Is their explosive growth good for the industry? Crystal Ball: Until people start hitting the bid or lifting offers, VIX levels are going to stay in this range. Expect a similar stall in NASDAQ. Don predicts that Euro vol expiration settlement price next week will be lower than the 10.27 of Thursday night, and will settle in the mid-9s.

Volatility Views 42: Pricing VolContract Futures: Part History, Part Mystery     Volatility Review: Euro vol review. How has the Greek settlement affected Euro Vol?  Nasdaq vol review.  S&P’s overly dramatic brother, Nasdaq is an interesting beast these days. Many of the swings in the S&P are greatly exaggerated in the Nasdaq, due in part to the tech-heavy nature of the index. How has that played out from a vol perspective? Are we seeing the same degree of selloff in the Nasdaq vol? An explosion of volume recently in the T-VIX. There is something very interesting going on.   Volatility Viewpoint: Don discusses a little about expected pricing of VolContracts — information he touched upon before, but needed some clarification. Listener Mail: Question 1: I know Mark has said several times in the past that the difference between retail options traders vs. pro options traders is that retail trades direction while professionals trade volatility. I wonder if you guys can elaborate on this a little more, as

Volatility Views 41: Breaking Open the Volatility Mailbag Volatility Review: SPX/VIX review — some level disparities between the VIX cash and the VIX futures. Euro vol is in single-digit territory. Nasdaq VolContract preview. Listener Mail: Comment on the Great Volatility Skew Debate, Don's comments on volatility, and questions about Nasdaq VolContracts. Crystal Ball: How will the disparity between VIX cash and VIX futures unwind? Where will Euro vol go next?

Volatility Views 40: Manipulating The VIX Volatility Review: Euro vol review. March Euro VolContract has an interesting phenomenon brewing — realized vol calculation is 7.93, and the inferred volatility is 10.84. How or where will they meet? Major correlation break in VIX/S&P 500. Volatility Viewpoint: Not afraid of controversy, the panel discusses the notion of VIX settlement price manipulation with Henry Schwartz, founder and CEO of Trade Alert. Crystal Ball: Short VIX going into the weekend, but then watch out for the unknown unknown. Don makes a shaky prediction that the Euro vol will dip lower.

Volatility Views 39: Redefining Normal Volatility Review: How low can vol continue to go? Dancing around 17 in VIX cash. We have finally reached perfect equilibrium. The last 22 trading days of realized volatiity was 6.73 for the S&P, the lowest Don has remembered since 1994. Lofty numbers have skewed people's ideas of "normal," and it's time to reassess the definition of it. Expiration day for the February Euro VolContract. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility correlation, overlays for equity portfolios, and several other uses for volatility products with Simon Acomb, from Acomb Financial Research, Ltd. Crystal Ball: Dipping into the murky depths of volatility. Mark S. sees a flattening of the VIX yield curve, and thinks it makes sense to isolate gamma and short VIX using S&P versus VIX futures. Don provides insightful Euro vol picks. Information on the volatility workshop that Simon discussed can be found here.

Volatility Views 38:  The Great Skew Debate Volatility Review:  What is going on with the VIX? How low can it go?  Sebas sees VIX going to 16. Don gives a Euro VolContract update, noting the equity-like behavior (underlying increased, while vol dropped).  Looking forward to the Nasdaq 100 VolContracts. Volatility Viewpoint:  Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance.  Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace. Crytsal Ball:  Right now, there are good opportunities to buy individual equity options because volatility is so low. Mark Sebastian uses AAPL as an example. The impact of the leverage effect.  Don thinks that the vol levels on the Euro VolContracts look just about right.

Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go? Volatility Review: Might we see VIX below 20 for some time to come? Euro vol up slightly since last week -- Bob Krause called it correctly. Two weeks to go in the Feb VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Don gets a chance to give his views on last week’s topics and talking points from Nikunj Kapadia, Associate Professor at the UMass Eisenberg School of Management. Mailbag: VolContracts on the NASDAQ!!!“Woohoo!! This is what I've been waiting for, a realized VolContract on an underlying that I actually trade. This is going to open up a whole new world of trading possibilities for me. I can't wait to short VXN and buy the realized Nasdaq product. I won't need to wait for Don to earn me an island in the Bahamas, I'll pick one up myself when I collect all that juicy risk premium. In all seriousness, I couldn't be more excited by this announcement. This will be an enormous development for VolX as well as for all the realized vol aficionados out there. As the book sa

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes. Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures--how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? "I've just found this show on iTunes and I find it very enlightening. Thank you for producing a quality show on this topic. I'm relatively new to options and I'm looking to do some basic modeling to get a better handle on options pricing and performance, but I'm hung up on which volatility measurement to use in my model. Close to close volatility certainly seems easiest but I'm not sure if it would be accurate enough for my needs. Should I try for somet

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX--general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates--December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project. Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vascillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out. Click here to access the Salomon Center that Prof. Figlewski spoke about in Volatility Viewpoint. Prof. Figlewski's pe

Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility Volatility Review: VIX has been up and down around the 30-handle, but now it is time for it to begin to settle at a more normal level. Friday was quarterly expiration day in the Euro VoContract futures, with the front one-month and the December three-month going out. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Chris Cole, Managing Director at Artimus Capital Management, sits down to discuss VIX options and futures, volatility doldrums, and the trading approach at Artimus.  Crystal Ball: VIX is a coin flip with regard to both the long-term and short-term mean. The gang looks at the January one-month and March quarterly Euro VolContracts and their implied volatilities versus potential realized vol.

Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend In this episode, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian are joined by Larry McMillan. Volatility Review: Last week saw a lot of volatility action. VIX downside positions are just starting to pan out. Are people buying insurance or are they buying gamma? Seasonal drain to volatility. Euro VolContract update--one week left to go in the front-month contract. Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio. Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping. Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating from the panel. The market will have trouble supporting current vol levels. Sebastian likes buy-write opportunities in gold right now. Larry still has a bullish bias to the market. With expiration week for the front month upon us, Don sees Euro vol sett

Volatility Views 31: Live from Las VegasVolatility Review: It's been a rough week for the equity markets. With the weekend decay out, and the super committee's report due this week, is it time to buy or sell the VIX? Is leverage causing a rise in volatility? What's going on with the Euro FX VolContract, and what does realized volatility look like right now? What's the latest news on the Dec one-month VolContract?Volatility Viewpoints: Bob talks about the long-term future of volatility, the volatility of volatility, and how efficiency affects the market. Also, Bob discusses his initial thoughts of the article in Futures magazine written last week. Volatility Interview: Dan Cook, Director of Business Development at the Nadex Exchange, joins Mark and Bob in the interview segment.Crystal Ball: With the VIX at 33, we need the market to move 2% per day to pay for VIX. Is that possible, or are we looking at a potential meltdown? If we see the VolContract fall anywhere below 13%, should we be looking to get long FX v

Volatility Views 30: Epithet Etymology Volatility Review: Only four days into the new front month of December, we have a ton of volatility. Greece and Italy are leading the way, dictating how the market will trade day to day. Mark Sebastian's week in review. Is Europe ramping up or winding down? The trend of net unit buyers continues into today. Volatility Viewpoint: This segment was kicked off by an article in Futures Magazine, "Stock Market Trends and the Volatility Premium by Marco Erling. We felt the article would be right up the alley of Volatility Views listeners. Mailbag/Crystal Ball: WHERE ARE WE ON THE EURO VOL CONE? I know the guys over at VolX are big fans of the vol cones. I'd like to know where the Euro VolContracts currently fall on the vol cones spectrum. It sounds like they would be a screaming sell at these levels. Am I correct, and do the hosts agree? Until the VIX proves it can hold 30 and lower, it may be a good time to hold premium – good for gamma scalping.

Volatility Views 29: Other Volatility Indices Volatility Review: The VIX cash and the VIX, in general, have been on quite the roller coaster ride. With further concerns about Greece, and now Italy as well, the VIX bounced right back to the 32 level. Greece continues to set the Euro on fire. Don discusses the recent expiration of the front month November Euro VolContract. Volatility Viewpoint: Don discusses some of the hedging aspects of using VolContracts against options positions or equity portfolios, and some general logistical issues for listeners who are looking to add VolContracts into to their portfolio for the first time. Mailbag: Volatility on Other Indices. Hello Vol Views Crew: Love the show. Keep up the good work. My question concerns the viability of volatility products on indices other than the S&P. For whatever reason, none of those products have managed to attract volume or attention like the VIX, even when the ones that were created by the CBOE. To what do you attribute their failure? Is

Volatility Views 28: Day-Trading VolContractsVolatility Review: Mark Sebastian's week in review. Euro vol a roller coaster ride recently -- two big moves during the first two and a half weeks pulled the one month Nov up and down.Volatility Viewpoint: Trading VolContracts intra-day, and some of the opportunities and mathematical applications inherent in this type of trading.Listener Mail: How Would You Update VIX?Hello:  Since VIX is still the brand name for volatility with much of the investing public, I would like to know what tweaks/upgrades you would suggest for future iterations of the VIX.Crystal Ball: Euro vol outlook -- will we move lower from here? Also, Mark Sebastian looks into his crystal ball.