Volatility Views

Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility Volatility Review: The play between pre- and post-election Greek volatility has seen big action. Ultimately though, the EU will let the Greeks decided their own fate. Andrew G. does not want to own pre-election juice. Given realized volatility, there has not been much change in the NASDAQ. The three-month realized vol has actually risen somewhat -- replacing volatility that was extremely low just a short while ago. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Andrew Patton, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at Duke University. He is the author or co-author of several academic papers, including "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility." Prof. Patton discusses some of its findings, including the importance of directional movement in forecasting future volatility. Crystal Ball: In VIX, Andrew G. is just waiting for the Greek election to sell June, buy July, and unleash the time spread. NASDAQ one-month realized may roll over a little bit. The short term might be

Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two Volatility Review: NASDAQ one-month vol came in a little bit, and at the same time the three-month vol went up slightly. The risk premium between implied and realized volatility has widened further. A crazy scenario of implied vs. realized volatility in VIX. Listener Mail: Mark, Don, and Mark take on listener questions. All of this talk about JP Morgan has left me wondering, what kind of derivatives hedge loses $2.3 billion? How is that even possible? Help me Volatility Views hosts, you are my only hope! (Todd Lundgren, Pittsburgh, PA) I Know Bob and Don are big fans of vol cones. How about a vol cone update on the major indices (VIX, NASDAQ, Euro, etc.) for your loyal listeners? Where should I be buying, or perhaps not buying VIX here? (TEDMAS via Facebook) Hey Don, what index is next from VolX after NASDAQ? Russell? Emerging Markets? Thanks. (Via Twitter from UNCLESTEVE) Mark is fond of calling NASDAQ "Apple Plus." I know he's joking, but

Volatility Views 53: An Insider's View of Risk Management Volatility Review: There is an extra note of tension in the market with S&P vol waiting for the other shoe to drop. NASDAQ vol is slightly higher. JPMorgan news does little to rattle VIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Todd Petzel, the Chief Investment Officer at Offit Capital, sits down with Mark and Don, and discusses myriad aspects of volatility and risk management. Topics include:. The instruments he uses to manage portfolio risk. Structured VIX products. Go-to products. Financial investors and their lacking use of options. Pending regulations concerning position limits Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees the market bouncing around in the short term. A safe trade may be shorting U.S. treasuries. There is still a continued contraction between implied risk premium and realized vol levels. Vol may go higher, but without anything dramatic moving it.

Volatility Views 52: The Father of Financial Futures Volatility Review: Listeners from last week may remember Don made a timid prediction that the realized volatility of NASDAQ could be going a bit higher, and it managed to inch up a few basis points. It was a strong down week for equities. Since this selloff was gradual, the actual market volatility was not significant. Greek and French elections this weekend may fuel some volatility moves next week. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Richard Sandor, "the father of financial futures," and Chairman and CEO of Environmental Financial Products. Dr. Sandor discusses his new book "Good Derivatives," and his storied career. He distinguishes between regulated and unregulated derivatives, discusses what it takes to create a new market, and his involvement in the issue of acid rain. Crystal Ball: There may be an increase in realized volatility on NASDAQ in the next week. Putting a cap on volatility at 20%. Upcoming elections in both France and Greece.

Volatility Views 51: Risk Managers: The Adults in the Group Volatility Review: VIX options were absolutely crushed this week. Apple after earnings and its effect on NASDAQ vol. Don and Sebastian weigh in on VVIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Views welcomes back Euan Sinclair, author and risk manager at Bluefin Trading, to discuss risk management and his work on the barrier (or first time) method for calculating volatility. Euan gives a quick sneak preview of the updates to his book. The group also discusses Euan's opinion on vol of vol, and if the universe of ETPs has dramatically affected the vol of vol. Crystal Ball: Sebastian is looking at a 14-handle in the VIX and observed that S&P realized volatility was already in the 14s and would probably maintain those levels. Now that Apple's earnings are out of the way, what to look for in the NASDAQ? Getting close to the summer doldrums.

Volatility Views 50: Listener Mail Extravaganza Volatility Review: NASDAQ (aka Apple+) is starting to see a rise in realized volatility, as had been anticipated. VIX looks like it is settling back into a range, so we will have to see if it holds where it is or moves yet again. We seem to be in flux; there's no real trend here. Listener Mail: Via email from Tim Siffron, Lansing, MI.I love your show and the great guests you guys manage to wrangle, but I was a little out of my depth with last week's guest. It's been a while since I took a stats course, so your discussion of jump frameworks and stochastic volatility models for pricing OTC variant swaps was a tad out of my league. Can you give a quick, plain English summary of the take-aways from that discussion, for those of us who may have had trouble following along? Thanks and looking forward to the NASDAQ contracts. Via Twitter from Joe X4.Mark and Don: Who is your favorite Vol Views guest so far? Love the show. Via email from Aston VaLance, Hoboken, NJ.Mar

Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps Volatility Review: It's funny how it didn't take long for our prediction of a range-bound VIX to be proven wrong! The VVIX has been high. Is a tradable VIX of VIX in the works? What have the NASDAQ and SPX vol of vol six-month averages been? One-year? Don gives some remarkable numbers. Apple on the move downwards; some are eager to buy Apple at 600. NASDAQ vol cones, like most volatility readings, are at historical lows. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guests, Thomas Thorsen and Emil Stamp, are the authors of the master's thesis, "Pricing of Variance and Volatility Swaps in a Stochastic Volatility and Jump Framework." The gang discusses pricing models of OTC variance swaps, the different models the authors created, and the accuracy of the models for both forecasting realized volatility, as well as pricing of variance swaps and GARCH models in real-world applications. Crystal Ball: Are you still shorting the VIX? Are higher levels forecasted f

Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX Volatility Review: Not much vol action to report with the markets closed on recording day (Friday). Steep contango in VIX futures has lessened in the past few weeks. Long holiday weekend volatility didn't fully come out of VIX futures and index options, which is highly interesting and unusual. Also an unusual situation -- unemployment numbers were released on a day when the market was closed. Don and Mark discuss contango. NASDAQ volatility update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don are joined by David Palmer, Volatility Book Portfolio Manager at Hudson Bay Capital. They discuss the evolution of skew, the growing market of products tied to VIX, and how they're manipulating the underlying, the halting of TVIX share creation, OTC versus listed trading, volatility arbitrage opportunities, rational arbitrage, and hedging and downside protection. Crystal Ball: Nothing to rant about in S&P land, at least until we reach the next unknown unknown. Summer doldrums are coming.

Volatility Views 47:  How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio Volatility Review:  VIX review, with interesting corresponding elements relative to VIX and VIX skew. Monday massive overreaction to the market rally. NASDAQ vol review, driven by AAPL, which is slowing down a bit.  Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark are joined by Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and author of Elements of Financial Risk Management and a chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting.   Prof. Christoffersen discusses dynamic volatility, the Sharpe ratio, and practical applications for the average investor.  Mark asks Prof. Christoffersen whether it's possible to have a truly diversified portfolio without having some kind of volatility asset.  He also discusses his research on skew and its impact on the underlying instrument.  Crystal Ball: Looking deep into the murky ether of the future of volatility, Mark and Mark pontificate on th

Volatility View 46: Volatility Discussion with the Godfather Volatility Review: Slaughter of the VIX April future, with May poised for the same.  Credit Suisse released more creation units and TVIX crushed long positions - going from 13 to 6.5 in a week. Euro vol review -- March 1- and 3-month contracts expired last week. NASDAQ vol update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark have the great pleasure to discuss volatility with the Godfather:  Anthony Neuberger, Professor of Finance at Warwick Business School.  The gang discusses his seminal paper, "The Log Contract and Other Power Contracts.”  They also discuss tail risk and skew risk. Mark asks Prof. Neuberger if the market is correctly pricing in tail risk. Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees VIX staying between 14 and 16, with a lot of erosion in VXX.  Watch out for contango.  Euro vol is a coin flip right now. NASDAQ vol might be too expensive right now because of Apple.

Volatility Views 45: What Does Butter Have to Do with It? Mark is joined by Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause croquet courtside at the FIA Boca Conference. Volatility Viewpoint: Mechanics of the forthcoming Nasdaq VolContracts. Bob gives details on the genesis of the product, the formula, how it captures movement, the agreement with Nasdaq, the difference between VolContracts and other Nasdaq-based products, the specifications, the closing price, and more.

Volatility Views 44:  Listener Mail  Extravaganza Volatility Review: Vol is down and SPX is up. Even the  news of the new iPad wasn't enough to boost the market. Don opines on Apple.  Nasdaq vol still flat-lined.  Euro vol -- the  1-month and 3-month March contracts expire  soon.  Listener Mail: Nasdaq VolContracts, TVIX, the nature of  VolContracts, and avoiding the VIX.1. Will the new Nasdaq VolContracts be  exclusive to the Nasdaq, like the Euro and CME, or multi-listed?  2.  What's your take on the ongoing TVIX drama? Cause? Was it shady? Is TVIX  done?  3. I'm new to the show, so I apologize if you guys have  discussed this in earlier episodes, but I'm intrigued by the concept of  VolContracts and how they work. Would the new Nasdaq products be normal  futures and options in the truest sense? In other words, do normal strategies  such as verticals, time spreads, etc. apply in VolContracts products? Or, do I  need to relearn my trading fundamentals and apply some new concepts to fully  capitalize on these

Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility? Volatility Review: The VIX was gaining ground again, but became mired in a holding pattern. What was the cause of the influx of capital in TVIX? NASDAQ vol is still flat-lining. Euro vol review. Volatility Viewpoint: Sanjay Tolia of Bengal Capital is the featured guest. A great conversation included questions such as: Are high levels of correlation taking away from single-stock option trading? Are high levels of correlation taking away from running balanced volatility portfolios? Are VIX products good or bad for retail investors? Are weekly options good or bad for retail clients? Is their explosive growth good for the industry? Crystal Ball: Until people start hitting the bid or lifting offers, VIX levels are going to stay in this range. Expect a similar stall in NASDAQ. Don predicts that Euro vol expiration settlement price next week will be lower than the 10.27 of Thursday night, and will settle in the mid-9s.

Volatility Views 42: Pricing VolContract Futures: Part History, Part Mystery     Volatility Review: Euro vol review. How has the Greek settlement affected Euro Vol?  Nasdaq vol review.  S&P’s overly dramatic brother, Nasdaq is an interesting beast these days. Many of the swings in the S&P are greatly exaggerated in the Nasdaq, due in part to the tech-heavy nature of the index. How has that played out from a vol perspective? Are we seeing the same degree of selloff in the Nasdaq vol? An explosion of volume recently in the T-VIX. There is something very interesting going on.   Volatility Viewpoint: Don discusses a little about expected pricing of VolContracts — information he touched upon before, but needed some clarification. Listener Mail: Question 1: I know Mark has said several times in the past that the difference between retail options traders vs. pro options traders is that retail trades direction while professionals trade volatility. I wonder if you guys can elaborate on this a little more, as

Volatility Views 41: Breaking Open the Volatility Mailbag Volatility Review: SPX/VIX review — some level disparities between the VIX cash and the VIX futures. Euro vol is in single-digit territory. Nasdaq VolContract preview. Listener Mail: Comment on the Great Volatility Skew Debate, Don's comments on volatility, and questions about Nasdaq VolContracts. Crystal Ball: How will the disparity between VIX cash and VIX futures unwind? Where will Euro vol go next?

Volatility Views 40: Manipulating The VIX Volatility Review: Euro vol review. March Euro VolContract has an interesting phenomenon brewing — realized vol calculation is 7.93, and the inferred volatility is 10.84. How or where will they meet? Major correlation break in VIX/S&P 500. Volatility Viewpoint: Not afraid of controversy, the panel discusses the notion of VIX settlement price manipulation with Henry Schwartz, founder and CEO of Trade Alert. Crystal Ball: Short VIX going into the weekend, but then watch out for the unknown unknown. Don makes a shaky prediction that the Euro vol will dip lower.

Volatility Views 39: Redefining Normal Volatility Review: How low can vol continue to go? Dancing around 17 in VIX cash. We have finally reached perfect equilibrium. The last 22 trading days of realized volatiity was 6.73 for the S&P, the lowest Don has remembered since 1994. Lofty numbers have skewed people's ideas of "normal," and it's time to reassess the definition of it. Expiration day for the February Euro VolContract. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility correlation, overlays for equity portfolios, and several other uses for volatility products with Simon Acomb, from Acomb Financial Research, Ltd. Crystal Ball: Dipping into the murky depths of volatility. Mark S. sees a flattening of the VIX yield curve, and thinks it makes sense to isolate gamma and short VIX using S&P versus VIX futures. Don provides insightful Euro vol picks. Information on the volatility workshop that Simon discussed can be found here.

Volatility Views 38:  The Great Skew Debate Volatility Review:  What is going on with the VIX? How low can it go?  Sebas sees VIX going to 16. Don gives a Euro VolContract update, noting the equity-like behavior (underlying increased, while vol dropped).  Looking forward to the Nasdaq 100 VolContracts. Volatility Viewpoint:  Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance.  Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace. Crytsal Ball:  Right now, there are good opportunities to buy individual equity options because volatility is so low. Mark Sebastian uses AAPL as an example. The impact of the leverage effect.  Don thinks that the vol levels on the Euro VolContracts look just about right.

Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go? Volatility Review: Might we see VIX below 20 for some time to come? Euro vol up slightly since last week -- Bob Krause called it correctly. Two weeks to go in the Feb VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Don gets a chance to give his views on last week’s topics and talking points from Nikunj Kapadia, Associate Professor at the UMass Eisenberg School of Management. Mailbag: VolContracts on the NASDAQ!!!“Woohoo!! This is what I've been waiting for, a realized VolContract on an underlying that I actually trade. This is going to open up a whole new world of trading possibilities for me. I can't wait to short VXN and buy the realized Nasdaq product. I won't need to wait for Don to earn me an island in the Bahamas, I'll pick one up myself when I collect all that juicy risk premium. In all seriousness, I couldn't be more excited by this announcement. This will be an enormous development for VolX as well as for all the realized vol aficionados out there. As the book sa

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes. Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!