Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Hugo Capel Cure, Managing Director of Rothschild & Co, to discuss how they build strong portfolios for their clients, how rising inflation can affect the markets in a surprising way, how they use CTAs and Trend Followers to mitigate risk, the challenges of staying invested, being a stock and fund picker at the same time, how manager selection is like a dating process and how they differentiate between process and outcome, how they make good decisions as a team, how to act in times of crises, the people who inspired Hugo to become a better investor and much more. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How to build strong Multi-Asset portfolios for your clients How using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate risk How manager selection is like a dating process How to make good decisions as a team How to be well prepared for the next crises ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.

In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more ---- In this episode, we discuss: Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio How to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes How ESG and commodities trading is closely related Whether to embrace Chinese commodity markets Why the war in Ukraine is so important for commodities Strategies for protecting yourself against inflation ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptr

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies, running portfolios using a risk parity framework, moving into digital assets, manager selection and much more. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How asset allocation is handled in a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement System How they manage risk and create balance in their portfolios How instability in the markets has shaped their strategy How they look at return expectations The (brave) move into digital assets Manager selection Skills and challenges of being a CIO ---- Follow Niels on http

Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure! ---- In this episode, we discuss: Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in Bonds Our slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha" The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend Following The impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the World The difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use them What software to use to backtest your systems Whether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it stat

Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decision making processes and governance, crypto currencies and digital assets and much more. ---- In this episode, we discuss: The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale Model How the role of hedge funds has changed over the years The bet Seides made with Warren Buffett Asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome What Seides has learned from doing his podcast The importance of leadership and time management The difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the moment The future of crypto cu

Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Different strategies for rebalancing your portfolio How de-globalisation can impact Trend Following The recent events in Nickel trading at the LME How divergence might cause disruption in markets, How the Japanese philosophy, Kaizen, can be applied to trend following ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT

In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after. ---- In This Episode, we discuss: The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economy The risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubbles How carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies The role of liquidity within the carry world The future of carry ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https:/

In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Trend following and its strengths, weaknesses, relevance and future Dealing with volatility as a trend follower Finding investment strategies that fits your personality What causes trends in markets Risk mitigation strategies ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How different types of bonds are valuated The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time) Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful) The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for th

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower How to develop a good trend following system How to manage trailing stops How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research ---- Follo

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional space Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them. Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies Due diligence and things to avoid in the process The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager. ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatility Rebalancing strategies within your portfolio The advantage of systematizing your trading When I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/

On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing. ---- In this episode, we discuss: What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade The surprise of markets ability to trend The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson Why this time feels different Lessons from the 1987 Crash ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptrad

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategies How systematic investing can be applied to the ESG space The cause of longer-term price trends The https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/trend-following-performance-report-january-2022/ (Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report) The best lookback period for Trend Following models The need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraders

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently. ---- In this episode, we discuss: The outlook for inflation Achieving high performance consistently How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly Mean variance optimisation Whether this time is different Selecting the right manager Simplifying complexity for better understanding Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How Trend Following differs to momentum Avoiding the need to make predictions The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance The similarities between Trend Following and options How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’ Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients The “Moscow Rules" Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Ever-changing market correlations Strategic asset allocation Responding to interest rate changes Achieving utility maximisation Mean variance analysis Portfolio diversification Treasury bonds High performance teams Simplifying complexity Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielska

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies. ---- In this episode, we discuss: How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the world How Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environment Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio How managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing markets The viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forward Why a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/

Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Better education around capital allocation Allocating capital throughout various market cycles How to define an ‘alternative investment’ How actively we should manage a portfolio Traditional versus alternative investments The difficulties in the manager selection process Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator Difficult conversations with clients Advice for aspiring capital allocator

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’. ---- In this episode, we discuss: Letting winners run and cutting losses early Using 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signals Redefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’ Howard Marks’ opinion on following price Achieving effective risk parity within a portfolio How endogenous outliers are hard to predict Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersun