Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging. In this episode, we discuss: How market behaviour is often intertwined Why Cem chose to manage outside capital The thinking behind institutional market moves How the global pandemic affected markets Dealer flows Feedback loops Delta hedging Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Hari on https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 (Twitter). Follow Cem on https://twitter.com/jam_croissant (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower. In this episode, we discuss: Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performance The benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframes Howard Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action only The status of the commodity markets Hedges against inflation Creating the perfect portfolio using Trend Following Trend Following versus ‘trend chasing’ Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference. In this episode, we discuss: How quantum physics relates to financial markets The mechanics behind price impacts David’s new book, coming out soon The magical characteristics of money The power and unpredictability of sentiment Weather and how it relates to financial markets Central bank money creation and how effective it can be Cognitive interference Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (You

Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’. In this episode, we discuss: Spotting patterns among previous outliers Simplicity over complexity How little the news really moves markets Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading' The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data. In this episode, we discuss: The extent to which news drives price action How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations Jean-Philippe's journey into finance The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal Dimensional analysis The inelastic market hypothesis Standing out in the Systematic Investor space Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data Follow Niels on https://

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations. In this episode, we discuss: The perception of Trend Following among various types of investors How many positions to trade at once The ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategies Combining Trend Following and Volatility strategies Risk-per-futures contract How much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with it Pyramiding positions CFD trading and navigating commissions Measuring correlations effectively Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly. In this episode, we discuss: How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’ The importance of compounding Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies Value investing in the volatility space Methods for taking profits Sizing portfolio allocations Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Hari on https://twitter.co

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injections Macro versus quantitative approaches Avoiding crowded strategies What it was like to trade through 2018 How market participants may try to game Trend Followers Measuring the strength of price trends Reviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010s Which economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance Check out our series on Volatility h

On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home. In this episode, we discuss: A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fund How to use Twitter as an investor Bringing value to clients as a volatility trader Hedging via ETFs Market flows Options Implied volatility Finding a good work & life balance Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for trading different markets Why Trend Following firms should trade single stocks The optimum amount of systems to run at the same time Diversification across markets versus across systems Skewness How to define outliers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (

“Deferred gratification must be a master principle. In a world where people are focused on short-term pleasures, it becomes an enormous competitive advantage if you can shift to deferred gratification.”What if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what it takes to be a truly successful investor, the benefits of deferred gratification, why being humble can lead to solid long-term returns, and the beauty of combining ‘man and machine’ to create a profitable, systematic approach to the markets. Thank y

We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance. In this episode, we discuss: Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio Tips for effective diversification Why you should be Hunting Outliers How Trend Following performance might look like in the future If and when you should override your trading rules Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitt

“The mutual fund is coming up to a 100 years old, if you count the first US mutual fund, but in the past 50 years it’s been all about the index fund. So the reason why I started covering it so much at the FT is because I felt it was under-covered in comparison to some of the more titanic hedge fund managers.”Passive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital.  How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times Global Finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the financial crisis of 2008 affected investors' relat

Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategies If any funds have successfully implemented machine learning What defines machine learning The history behind machine learning-based trading styles How to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selection How to time the entry into trend following funds If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatil

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How to effectively approach position-sizing Some methods for investing in Trend Following CTAs If 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategy Portfolio optimisation Trading lesser-known markets Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

"When the market turns and goes negative, strategies like Trend Following tend to do really well. They provide that hedge. So it’s completely inappropriate to compare Trend Following to a long equity portfolio, because Trend Following has different properties - it has hedging properties." - Cam HarveyHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Campbell Harvey. In This Episode, You’ll Learn: How to manage a portfolio through a crisis The motivation behind writing his new book Various m

Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders. In this episode, we discuss: Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky The best way to measure true risk How to 'buy the dip' What Richard thinks about risk The relationship between volatility and risk Convergent versus divergent trading Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

'When you look into history, so-called derivative investment products that you think of as being recent, actually go back to 2400 BCE, in various forms. Call options go back to 600 BCE at least. In the 18th century BCE there were personal loans, as well as a liquid secondary market for these promissory notes. So what we think of as new inventions are actually very old.' - Steve FoersterIf we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like?  Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'. Thank you for lis

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest percentage of winning trades. In this episode, we discuss: Overcoming the uncertainty in markets When to override your system, if ever Balancing between difference asset classes The need to trade non-correlated assets Why longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczyns

Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolio How to profit from large stock market selloffs Some of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility trading Profiting from institutional volatility traders When to apply a discretionary approach The VIX ETF Helping clients to be cash efficient in their portfolios The need for liquid