Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods. In this episode, we discuss: A systematic approach to trading single stocks Why you should trade a broad universe of assets Why the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investors Why volatility is our friend, especially when it's directional How to manage dividends as a Trend Following trader The best methods of diversification Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jer

Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models. In this episode, we discuss: Why we should be invested in volatility strategies Improving over time but not over-tinkering How much markets may have changed in recent years The average duration of volatility trades Recent data versus long-term data Shorter-term Trend Following The benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday models Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/topt

We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies. In this episode, we discuss: Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategies Maintaining composure during different market environments The sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020 Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate times The resilience of Trend Following Volatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatility https://ww

In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of https://dunncapital.com/ (DUNN Capital), to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm.  In this episode, we discuss: Volatility as an asset class of its own The journey of the VIX from its early days until now Analysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500 What’s known as volatility relative-value trading The usefulness of the VVIX Operating models during different market and economic environments Kurtosis and skew The need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolio Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptrader

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset. In this episode, we discuss: The new credibility of cryptocurrencies Scaling into positions using various methods ESG investing as a Trend Following investor How to select the optimum markets to trade Trading single stocks Embracing creativity as a systematic investor Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment. In this episode, we discuss: Ensemble investing and its benefits Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals Noel’s VIX and bonds pai

This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’. In this episode, we discuss: How to stay on the right side of the effects of compounding How many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versions The profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are falling The need to zoom-out when judging performance The terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), h

Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolio The importance of avoiding group think (in hedging) Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’ The new nature of stock market movements The repricing of risk during fast downturns Tail-risk protection versus Trend Following How tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend Following Some of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market moves How positioning and leverage end up creating challenging mark

This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The future of Bitcoin How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades The private equity world compared with systematic investing Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com

We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains Our best performing assets of the year so far How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptrade

Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: Favouring long or short positions How you can go broke taking small profits Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’ The importance of down-time and vacations Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd System diversification Why you should trade small The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today Avoiding trade

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules. In this episode, we discuss: Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures How to raise AUM when starting a new firm The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin Adding parameters to a system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU websi

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns. In this episode, we discuss: How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns Compounding wealth as a systematic investor How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on How investment terms can often create communication barriers Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastrupla

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here). In this episode, we discuss: How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone How to spot future star performers in advance Unconventional approaches to market correlations The importance of communicati

Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The case for longer-term strategies Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increase

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates. In this episode, we discuss: Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods Some good measures for monitoring risk Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing Suitable backtesting software for retail investors How to approach negative interest rates with your broker Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://ww

This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. In this episode, we discuss: Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers Leverage, margin, & total portfoli

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models. In this episode, we discuss: The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers' The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification' Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https

Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system The true definitions of liquidity Futures markets as the most liquid in the world Why a rules-based app

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures Thoughts on autocorrelation The benefits of trading a wide range of markets How over-optimisation can result in underperformance Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as