Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How effective Backtests can be Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets Ethereum futures Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https:/

This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk. In this episode, we discuss: Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy How to profit across multiple timeframes How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods Average win rate versus average loss rate Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors Trailing stops and risk management How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/ni

Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems.  We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades How to engage in related to your investment approach Over complicating a trading strategy Acceptable margin amounts Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.ca

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. You can read some of Rob’s work https://qoppac.blogspot.com/ (here). In this episode, we discuss: Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money Trend Following on ETFs Predicting future returns using current risk exposure Retail traders versus professional money managers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraders

Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation. In this episode, we discuss: Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears How price action incorporates all narratives Trend Following on options The extra costs of short-term trading Single stocks versus index futures If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system Mark's '3 D's' of inflation You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/ (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/to

Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash The varying speeds of Trend Following Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy is

'The typical pie-chart of diversification ends up being all long-GDP assets, which means these are going to do well in a risk-on environment, when we’re awash with liquidity. The problem is, when we see a sell off or a liquidity event like March 2020, we see the correlations of an ‘uncorrelated’ pie chart go to 1, which means that they all sell off at the same time.' - Jason BuckWhat happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside?  Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events.  You may have seen Jason Buck alongside another volatility-expert (and previous guest of Top Traders Unplugged) Chris Cole on Real Vision, or listened to his ‘Pirates of Finance’ podcast with co-host Corey Hoffstein (another previous guest of Top

Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade. In this episode, we discuss: If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis What to do with your trading profits Defending against inflation Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the htt

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality. In this episode, we discuss: China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency Inflation and its effects on trading The psychology around drawdowns Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://w

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses. In this episode, we discuss: Why you should prioritise price over any other form of data How bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend Followers How mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to end Why money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too much The increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAs How to embrace

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators. In this episode, we discuss: Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meeting The likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates How to overcome the unpredictable nature of markets Thoughts on De-Fi Increasing sustainability requirements of the investment industry The newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CME Trend Following on cryptocurrencies Follow Niels on https://twitter.co

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin. In this episode, we discuss: Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems 'Caveman-style' Trend Following How to hedge against inflation Trend F

Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility. In this episode, we discuss: How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky markets The differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-only How a top trader should efficiently process new data Modern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend Following Whether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being t

Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions. In this episode, we discuss: The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments Coinbase's recent stock market listing Position sizing using historical volatility Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading The infamous https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer) Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system. In this episode, we discuss: Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in The rise in commodity prices Trading in the Chinese commodity markets The possible risks of trading in emerging markets Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (

Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading system Knowing when 'good enough' is good enough Why investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amounts When volatility equates to risk Approaches to multi-timeframe analysis Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk. In this episode, we discuss: The case for and against Volatility Targeting Whether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environment Whether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategies The credibility of NFTs as an asset class Volume analysis as a trading signal Volatility as a measure of risk Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow R