Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal. In this episode, we discuss: Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets How correlations can increase volatility The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to poli

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment. In this episode, we discuss: Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflation Staying humble during long winning periods The GameStop short-squeeze New volatility-based ETFs for Cryptocurrencies Why analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long run Can we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU websi

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios. In this episode, we discuss: The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitte

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side. In this episode, we discuss: If holding bonds "stupid"? The problem of being an economic policy engineer Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot" Correlation and volatility The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets  Due diligence and quality of managers. Intraday trends – are they stabl

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on Twitter. IT’s TRUE

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Mark on ht

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures.  Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out?  What are your views on stop-losses? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://my.captivate.fm/@Investing

In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system.  I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program.  I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). Follow Moritz on h

Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter).

Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January. Thanks for listening and please welcome back to the show our guest Mahendra Sharma. “I think astrology is not about getting fame by predicting some negative event. Astrology is about guiding someone, to help people.” – Mahendra Sharma (http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/clicktotweet (Tweet))In This Episode, You’ll Learn: How Mahendra got into astrology Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets Why

In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record.  Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following?  Do you recommend any hedging strategies? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert

This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_b