Top Traders Unplugged With Niels Kaastrup-larsen | Engaging Conversations With The Top Traders & Investors

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects. Topics Discussed in this Episode: Passive investing ETFs and target date funds Intergenerational inequality “(The) growth of passive is now basically built into the system. From a regulatory framework, all the new money that comes into the U.S Savings and Investment accounts (primarily in the form of 401Ks and IRAs), are coming in passive vehicles.”Real interest rates over history Mean reversion and momentum Negative interest rates “I think negative interest rates are absurd and that they’re a view that I

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns.  We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity?  Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and it’s likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks and when we first learned about COVID in the autumn of 2019 (one for conspiracy theorists!). Topics Discussed in this Episode: COVID-19 QE and the transmission mechanism China “The number of people moving from Chinese Suburbs, urbanization if you will, a massive, massive secular trend, was coming to an end… You pile the trade war into this preexisting dynam

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitte

Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com (the Bear Traps report), and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla. Topics Discussed in this Episode: Risk Indicators Unemployment Modern Monetary Theory US Dollar “At the end of the day, so the dollar ripped 82 to 104 and that moved crushed middle American jobs and really, I think it partially cost Hillary Clinton the election… I think the Trump camp has learned that you really can’t have a runaway dollar heading towards an

Todays’ guest is Erik Townsend, host of the https://www.macrovoices.com/ (Macro voices podcast). Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”! Topics Discussed in this Episode MMT Inflation outlook & inflation hedging QE “Most of that money that was conjured out of thin air by central banks didn’t go to Main Street to provide more money in the pocket of the average consumer, it went to put more money in the pocket of the average investment banker to bu

Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of http://BuffetsBooks.com (BuffetsBooks.com) and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin. Topics Discussed in this Episode Value Investing The correct discounting of future cash flows Demographic changes The debt cycle QE “I operate off this really fundamental thesis of manipulation: anytime somebody steps into a freely

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages. Topics Discussed in this Episode: The consistency of the US dollar cycle The COVID related March funding squeeze US current and capital account deficit Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point Unemployment “The U.S. just hit post Second World War highs (for unemployment), and if you don’t, post Great Depression highs. The point is that we are starting in an economic hole

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles... costing them dearly. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Are US Treasuries as safe as many investor think? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward.  Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well?  Can I diversify using stock sectors only?  What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter). IT’s TRUE

Combining fundamental macro with price data. Does it work? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

How to educate financial advisors about Trend Following strategies. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

The differences between changes leading to improvement & changes leading to inconsistency. Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE

What level of Leverage should you use? Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (TTU website). IT’s TRUE